Match Analysis: Lecce vs Bologna – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-28
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: Via del Mare, Lecce, Italy
Game Overview
The match features Lecce hosting Bologna in the 2025-26 Serie A season. Lecce are struggling, positioned 20th in the league with poor recent form, including no wins in their last four Serie A matches and two losses at home. Bologna sit mid-table (11th), with mixed form but a stronger historical head-to-head record against Lecce. Bologna has not lost to Lecce in the last nine meetings (6 wins, 3 draws).
Key Factors to Consider
- Lecce has lost all recent matches at home and is in relegation contention, showing offensive challenges with an average goal scoring rate of 0.72 per game historically versus Bologna. Bologna are more stable, having won 2 out of 4 recent matches overall, scoring more goals on average (1.5 goals per game vs Lecce's defensive 1.5 goals allowed). Both teams have injury concerns, but Bolognaβs key players like NicolΓ² Casale and Ciro Immobile are injured while Lecce has multiple absences including Riccardo Sottil.
- Bologna leads the historical series significantly, winning 11 of the last 18 encounters, while Lecce has only 2 wins. In recent seasons, Bologna maintained dominance including a 9-match unbeaten streak against Lecce (6 wins, 3 draws).
- Lecce is missing Balthazar Pierret, Filip Marchwinski, Gaby Jean, and Riccardo Sottil due to injuries. Bologna also faces absences with Nicolo Casale, Tommaso Pobega, and Ciro Immobile sidelined.
- The match is played at Lecceβs home ground, Via del Mare, but Lecce has not won there recently, which limits home advantage. Weather and pitch conditions are unknown from the data but normally do not heavily impact Serie A matches in late September.
- Lecce is highly motivated to gain points to avoid relegation, which adds urgency to their play. Bologna, comfortable in mid-table, may approach the game with less pressure but with confidence from recent head-to-head dominance.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bologna: 105, Lecce: 305, Draw: 215 | Bologna to win | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | Bologna -0.5: 105, Lecce +50: -125 | Bologna -0.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2: -115, Under 2: -105 | Under 2 goals | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bologna 9% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2 17% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Considering Lecceβs poor home form, multiple injuries, and Bologna's historical dominance coupled with mid-table stability, Bologna are favored to win, though Lecceβs motivation to avoid relegation may limit the margin.
Predicted Score: 0-1