Match Analysis: Bolaji Oki vs Mason Jones – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-06
• Time: 8:15 PM UTC
• Location: Accor Arena, Paris, France

Game Overview

The lightweight MMA bout pits Bolaji Oki (10-2) against Mason Jones (16-2-0, 1 NC) at UFC Paris. Both fighters are orthodox, similar height and weight, with Jones slightly longer reach. Oki is known for a higher volume and accuracy of significant strikes, while Jones has a solid finishing record and recent strong form.

Key Factors to Consider

• Bolaji Oki lands 7.05 significant strikes/min at 45% accuracy but absorbs 4.76 strikes/min with 62% defense. Mason Jones lands fewer strikes at 5.56/min with 41% accuracy and defends only 48%. Jones shows better recent finishing ability and more UFC experience overall.
• No known previous fight between Bolaji Oki and Mason Jones.
• No current reported injuries for either fighter leading into the September 6 bout.
• The fight is held at UFC Paris, potentially favoring both evenly with no strong home advantage. Both fighters appear motivated to advance their UFC standings.
• Jones is in prime career form after returning from Cage Warriors with multiple finishes and a dominant UFC win. Oki, though a rising talent, has close UFC decision wins and a first round submission loss versus a higher-level opponent.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Bolaji Oki: +114, Mason Jones: -135	Mason Jones	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Bolaji Oki +3.5: -180, Mason Jones -3.5: +130	Mason Jones -3.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5: -175, Under 2.5: +135	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Mason Jones -4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 34%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 34% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 25.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Mason Jones to win by decision

Predicted Score: Mason Jones wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Bolaji Oki vs Michael Aswell – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-31
• Time: 11:10 PM UTC
• Location: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada

Game Overview

Bolaji Oki and Michael Aswell face off in a highly anticipated MMA match at UFC Vegas 107. Bolaji Oki was originally scheduled to fight Mederos, but due to Mederos's withdrawal, Aswell has stepped in. This change adds an element of unpredictability to the fight.

Key Factors to Consider

• Bolaji Oki has been a hyped prospect from the Dana White Contender Series, though he has experienced setbacks. Michael Aswell, a former DWCS cast-off, offers a fresh challenge.
• There is no previous head-to-head data available for these fighters.
• No specific injury reports are available for either fighter at this time.
• The late change in opponents could impact Bolaji Oki's strategy and preparation.
• Both fighters are motivated to win, with Bolaji Oki seeking to redeem himself and Michael Aswell looking to prove his worth.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-365 / 300	Bolaji Oki	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	-150 / 120	Over 2.5	★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Bolaji Oki -99%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 -99%

⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.

Predicted Outcome

Bolaji Oki is favored to win, based on his prior profile and performance expectations.

Predicted Score: Bolaji Oki by decision

Match Analysis: Marquel Mederos vs Bolaji Oki – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: May 31, 2025
• Time: 10:00 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex in Las Vegas

Game Overview

Marquel Mederos faces Bolaji Oki at UFC Vegas 107 in a lightweight bout. Mederos, with a record of 10-1-0, enters the fight after a recent win, while Oki brings a 9-2-0 record. The fight is part of the preliminary card, offering a chance for both fighters to make a statement in the lightweight division.

Key Factors to Consider

• Marquel Mederos has a significant strike rate of 3.75 per minute, while Bolaji Oki lands 5.63 significant strikes per minute. Mederos defends 62% of strikes, and Oki defends 63%.
• This is the first fight between the two competitors.
• Marquel Mederos had a recent change of plans, originally scheduled to fight Bolaji Oki, but an injury forced him to withdraw; however, he is now scheduled to face Nazim Sadykhov instead, indicating some possible health issues.
• Venue familiarity could play a role as both fighters compete at UFC Apex, but neither has a notable home advantage.
• Both fighters are highly motivated to secure a win and climb the rankings in their division.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Marquel Mederos +143, Bolaji Oki -180	Bolaji Oki is favored to win due to his higher strike output.	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Bolaji Oki -8%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Bolaji Oki at -8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given the recent development where Marquel Mederos is actually facing a different opponent, the prediction for this specific matchup is uncertain. However, based on initial data, Bolaji Oki's higher strike rate and slight defensive advantage could give him an edge.

Predicted Score: Given the nature of MMA, predicting a specific score is challenging. However, Bolaji Oki's aggressive style might lead to a stoppage or a dominant decision win.