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Boise State Broncos vs. NC State Wolfpack Prediction NCAAB in Basketball

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Match Analysis: Boise State Broncos vs NC State Wolfpack – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-25
  • Time: 7:30 PM UTC
  • Location: Lahaina Civic Center, Lahaina, HI

Game Overview

The NC State Wolfpack (4-1) face the Boise State Broncos (4-2) in the Southwest Maui Invitational semifinals. NC State enters as the moneyline favorite with odds at -310 and a spread of -6.5, while Boise State is the underdog at +245 moneyline and +6.5 spread. Both teams have similar scoring and defensive metrics, with NC State averaging 100.8 points and 69.8 allowed, and Boise State averaging 77.6 points and 67.6 allowed. Boise State tends to slow the tempo, while NC State has a balanced offense and defense.

Key Factors to Consider

  • NC State is 4-1 this season, recently losing to Seton Hall but showing strong offensive capabilities with 100.8 PPG and solid rebounding (41.5 per game). Boise State is 4-2, coming off a close 70-67 loss to USC, shooting 41% overall but struggling on three-point attempts. Boise State plays a slower tempo with 68.7 possessions per game. NC State boasts higher scoring, assists, and rebounds per game.
  • The teams have met once before in 2014, with NC State winning 60-54 at home. There are no recent meetings to offer more current matchup context.
  • Boise State has two season-long absences: Dominic Parolin (F) and Drew Fielder (F/C). NC State reports no key injuries for this game.
  • Game played at a neutral venue in Lahaina, Hawaii, which may limit home court advantage. Boise State played at home last season with better ATS record, but this setting neutralizes that factor. Both teams' performances might be affected by travel and tournament pressure.
  • NC State appears motivated to assert dominance as the betting favorite and improve to 5-1, while Boise State looks to rebound from a narrow recent loss and make a statement in the tournament. Both teams have strong incentives to win in advance of postseason positioning.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Boise State Broncos: +245, NC State Wolfpack: -310 NC State Wolfpack ★★★★☆ 76%
Spread Boise State Broncos: +6.5 -110, NC State Wolfpack: -6.5 -110 NC State Wolfpack to cover -6.5 ★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under Over: 150.5 -110, Under: 150.5 -110 Under 150.5 ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline NC State Wolfpack -12%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 150.5 15%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 150.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Despite Boise State's recent close loss and strong home ATS record, NC State's higher scoring efficiency and stable lineup without injuries provide an edge. The prediction leans toward NC State to win straight up and cover the -6.5 spread, with a final score projection favoring NC State by roughly 7 points.

Predicted Score: NC State Wolfpack 78 – Boise State Broncos 71


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Boise State Broncos vs. USC Trojans Prediction NCAAB in Basketball

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Match Analysis: Boise State Broncos vs USC Trojans – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-24
  • Time: 10:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Lahaina Civic Center, Lahaina, Maui, Hawai'i

Game Overview

This matchup features the Boise State Broncos (4-1) facing the USC Trojans (4-0) in the Southwest Maui Invitational. Both teams enter the contest with strong non-conference records, with Boise State having played five consecutive home games and USC remaining undefeated. The game is a neutral-site contest, which adds an extra layer of intrigue as neither team has a true home-court advantage.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Boise State has shown resilience, going 4-1 in their opening five games, all at home. Their lone loss came against Hawai'i Pacific, indicating they are capable of competing with quality opponents. USC, meanwhile, is undefeated at 4-0, with notable wins over Manhattan and Cal Poly. Their offense is led by R. Rice (18.7 PPG, 37.8% FG, 72.7% FT), while Boise State's A. Meadow averages 15.6 PPG, 55.1% FG, and 72.2% FT. USC's scoring margin is higher, but Boise State's efficiency from the field is impressive.
  • There is no recent head-to-head history between these two teams, making this matchup a fresh test for both programs. The lack of prior meetings means recent form and current roster strength will be the primary indicators.
  • No significant injuries have been reported for either team as of the latest updates. Both squads appear to be at full strength, which is crucial for a high-stakes neutral-site game.
  • The game is being played in Maui, Hawai'i, which could affect travel and acclimatization for both teams. The neutral site means neither team has a home-court advantage, but USC's undefeated record and slightly higher scoring margin may give them a psychological edge.
  • Both teams are motivated to make a statement in this early-season tournament. USC aims to maintain their undefeated record, while Boise State seeks to prove they can compete with top-tier programs. The outcome could have implications for their respective postseason aspirations.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Boise State Broncos: 225, USC Trojans: -300 USC Trojans ★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread Boise State Broncos: 6.5 -110, USC Trojans: -6.5 -110 USC Trojans -6.5 ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under Over: 151.5 -115, Under: 151.5 -105 Over 151.5 ★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline USC Trojans -13%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 151.5 3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 151.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

USC is favored to win this matchup due to their undefeated record and slightly higher scoring margin. However, Boise State's efficiency from the field and strong home record suggest they are capable of keeping the game close. The neutral site and lack of recent head-to-head history add uncertainty, but USC's overall performance and depth give them a slight edge.

Predicted Score: USC Trojans 78, Boise State Broncos 73


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Boise State Broncos vs. Colorado State Rams Prediction NCAAF in American Football

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Match Analysis: Boise State Broncos vs Colorado State Rams – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-22
  • Time: 12:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho

Game Overview

The Boise State Broncos (6-4) host the Colorado State Rams (2-8) in a Mountain West Conference matchup. Boise State is heavily favored, reflecting their stronger season performance and home advantage. The Rams face a tough challenge to upset the Broncos, who have been dominant offensively with an average point total above the game's over/under line.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Boise State boasts a 6-4 overall record with solid offensive production, averaging approximately 55.8 points overall with 57.7 at home. Their ATS record stands positive at 6-3-1, including a 4-1 mark at home, evidencing strong performance and consistency. Colorado State struggles with a 2-8 record, indicating offensive and defensive difficulties and low confidence against superior opposition.
  • Historically, Boise State has dominated Colorado State in recent meetings, reflected in the sportsbooks' large spread favoring Boise State (-16.5 points). The Broncos' superior conference standing (2-0 MWC) versus Colorado State's (1-1 MWC) further supports Boise State's edge.
  • No significant injury reports have been detailed for either team in the available data that would drastically affect the outcome.
  • The game is played at Boise State's home stadium, Albertsons Stadium, offering a significant home-field advantage. Weather conditions are mild (46°F and dry), so no weather disruptions are expected.
  • Boise State aims to consolidate its strong season and maintain Mountain West dominance. Colorado State seeks an upset to salvage what has been a difficult year, but motivation alone is challenged by Boise State's strong form and home advantage.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Boise State Broncos: -800, Colorado State Rams: 550 Boise State Broncos ★★★★★ 90%
Spread Boise State Broncos: -16.5 -108, Colorado State Rams: +16.5 -112 Boise State Broncos (-16.5) ★★★★☆ 85%
Over/under Over 44.5: -112, Under 44.5: -108 Over 44.5 ★★★★☆ 75%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Boise State Broncos -1%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 44.5 33%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 44.5 at 33% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 36.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Boise State Broncos are predicted to win decisively, covering the spread with a strong offensive performance. The total points are expected to go over the 44.5 benchmark due to Boise State's high-scoring offense and Colorado State's defensive vulnerabilities.

Predicted Score: Boise State Broncos 42 – Colorado State Rams 20


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Boise State Broncos vs. Wichita St Shockers Prediction NCAAB in Basketball

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Match Analysis: Boise State Broncos vs Wichita St Shockers – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-19
  • Time: 2:00 AM UTC
  • Location: ExtraMile Arena

Game Overview

Boise State Broncos host Wichita State Shockers in a non-conference NCAAB matchup. Both teams enter with strong early-season records, with Boise State at 3-1 and Wichita State at 3-0. Boise State is favored at home, with a spread of -9.5 and a total set at 153.5 points. The game is expected to be competitive, with both teams showing offensive efficiency and solid defensive metrics.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Wichita State averages 90.0 points per game, shooting 48.8% from the field and 35.9% from three, while Boise State averages 88.0 points per game, shooting 48.1% from the field and 76.3% from the free-throw line. Wichita State is strong on the boards (45.5 per game) but turns the ball over 12 times per game. Boise State assists more (18.3 per game) but commits more turnovers (13.7 per game). Both teams are efficient offensively, but Wichita State has a slight edge in rebounding and scoring.
  • No recent head-to-head data is available for this matchup. Both teams have played strong non-conference schedules, but there is no direct historical data to analyze.
  • No significant injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates.
  • Boise State has a strong home record, covering the spread in 13 of their last 21 home games and hitting the moneyline in 18 of their last 21 home games. Wichita State has covered the spread in 6 of their last 7 away games and has a strong trend of hitting the under in both full game and first-half totals.
  • Both teams are motivated to build momentum early in the season. Boise State is looking to solidify their home dominance, while Wichita State aims to prove themselves against a strong opponent on the road.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Boise State Broncos: -485, Wichita St Shockers: 370 Boise State Broncos ★★★★☆ 85%
Spread Boise State Broncos: -9.5 -110, Wichita St Shockers: 9.5 -110 Wichita St Shockers +9.5 ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over: 153.5 -105, Under: 153.5 -115 Under 153.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Boise State Broncos 0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 153.5 22%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 153.5 at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 24.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

The game is expected to be close, with Boise State favored due to their home advantage and recent form. However, Wichita State's strong offensive efficiency and rebounding could keep them competitive. The most likely outcome is a narrow Boise State victory, with the game potentially staying under the total due to defensive trends from both teams.

Predicted Score: Boise State 78, Wichita State 75


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San Diego State Aztecs vs. Boise State Broncos Prediction NCAAF in American Football

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Match Analysis: San Diego State Aztecs vs Boise State Broncos – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-15
  • Time: 3:30 AM UTC
  • Location: Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, California

Game Overview

The San Diego State Aztecs (7-2) face the Boise State Broncos (6-3) in a Mountain West Conference clash with significant implications for the conference race. Both teams exhibit strong passing defenses, ranked 11th and 12th nationally respectively, promising a defensive battle with controlled offensive production. The game is expected to be close, with the Aztecs favored to win at home.

Key Factors to Consider

  • San Diego State shows a robust defensive record, allowing only 13.1 points per game (2nd nationally), contrasting with Boise State's 24.0 points allowed (59th nationally). Offensively, Boise State averages 32.1 points per game, outperforming San Diego State’s 26.3 points, but Boise State struggles more with turnovers (14 allowed) compared to San Diego State (10). The Aztecs have covered the spread 7 out of 9 times, while Boise State is 6-2-1 ATS this season.
  • Boise State holds a 6-4 series advantage historically and won the last meeting 56-24 at home. However, San Diego State is a 3-point favorite this time playing at home, with home-field advantage potentially impacting results. San Diego State’s lone San Diego victory over Boise State was in 2013.
  • No specific injury updates were provided in the available data, but Boise State’s quarterback uncertainty has been noted following recent losses, potentially impacting offensive consistency.
  • The game will be played at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego, with Boise State coming off a bye week, possibly rested. San Diego State is motivated to secure hosting rights for the Mountain West championship game on December 5.
  • Both teams have strong motivation, but San Diego State aims to maintain conference dominance and improve postseason positioning, while Boise State looks to overcome prior losses and sustain its strong conference play record.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline San Diego State Aztecs: -142, Boise State Broncos: +120 San Diego State Aztecs ★★★☆☆ 62%
Spread San Diego State Aztecs: -2.5 (-122), Boise State Broncos: +2.5 (100) San Diego State Aztecs -2.5 ★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under Over 41.5: -104, Under 41.5: -118 Under 41.5 ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline San Diego State Aztecs 1%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 41.5 7%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 41.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

San Diego State Aztecs are predicted to win a closely contested game, leveraging superior defense and home advantage, with a final score around 24-20.

Predicted Score: San Diego State Aztecs 24, Boise State Broncos 20


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Boise State Broncos vs. Montana St Bobcats Prediction NCAAB in Basketball

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Match Analysis: Boise State Broncos vs Montana St Bobcats – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-15
  • Time: 9:00 PM UTC
  • Location: ExtraMile Arena, Boise

Game Overview

This NCAAB matchup features the Boise State Broncos hosting the Montana State Bobcats at ExtraMile Arena. Boise State enters the game with a 2-1 record, showing strong home form and consistent scoring, while Montana State is 1-3, struggling on the road and against quality opponents. The game is expected to be a mismatch, with Boise State heavily favored by the betting market.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Boise State has won two of their last three games, including dominant victories over Utah Valley (101-77) and UT Rio Grande (85-65). Their only loss was a narrow defeat to Hawaii Pacific (78-79). Montana State has lost three of their four games, including defeats to Colorado (78-84) and Stanford (68-77), with their only win coming against a non-Division I opponent (Northwest Indian College, 114-44). Boise State has covered the spread in 13 of their last 20 home games, while Montana State has covered only 4 of their last 19 away games.
  • No recent head-to-head data is available for this matchup, but Boise State's home dominance and Montana State's road struggles suggest a significant advantage for the Broncos.
  • No significant injuries have been reported for either team as of the latest updates.
  • Boise State is playing at home, where they have a strong track record. Montana State is traveling and has struggled away from home, with a poor record against the spread and in outright wins.
  • Boise State is motivated to build on their recent wins and maintain momentum. Montana State is looking to avoid a fourth loss and improve their record, but their recent performances suggest they may struggle against a stronger opponent.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Boise State Broncos: -2000, Montana St Bobcats: 980 Boise State Broncos ★★★★★ 95%
Spread Boise State Broncos: -15.5, Montana St Bobcats: 15.5 Boise State Broncos -15.5 ★★★★☆ 85%
Over/under Over: 149.5, Under: 149.5 Over 149.5 ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Boise State Broncos -0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 149.5 31%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 149.5 at 31% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 35.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Boise State is expected to win this game comfortably, covering the spread and pushing the total over the line. Montana State's road struggles and Boise State's home dominance make this a likely blowout.

Predicted Score: Boise State Broncos 82, Montana St Bobcats 67


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Boise State Broncos vs. UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros Prediction NCAAB in Basketball

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Match Analysis: Boise State Broncos vs UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-12
  • Time: 2:00 AM UTC
  • Location: ExtraMile Arena, Boise, Idaho

Game Overview

The Boise State Broncos host the UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros in a non-conference NCAA Men's Basketball matchup. Boise State enters the game as a heavy favorite, with both teams coming off wins in their previous outings. The game is scheduled for Tuesday, November 11, 2025, at 8:00 PM local time (2:00 AM UTC on November 12) at ExtraMile Arena in Boise, Idaho.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Boise State has shown strong offensive output, scoring 179 points in their first two games and averaging 89.5 points per game. Their defense has allowed 156 points, indicating a high-scoring, fast-paced style. UTRGV has also started the season well, scoring 176 points in their first two games and allowing 168. Their most recent win was a convincing 95-72 victory over Southern Utah. Both teams are off to a 1-1 start, but Boise State's margin of victory and home-court advantage are significant factors.
  • There is limited recent head-to-head history between these two teams. The matchup is rare, with no notable recent meetings, making historical trends less relevant. Boise State's superior program and home-court advantage are expected to play a major role.
  • No major injuries have been reported for either team as of the latest updates. Both squads are expected to field their strongest lineups.
  • The game is being played at ExtraMile Arena, Boise State's home court, which is known for its strong home-court advantage. The atmosphere and crowd support are expected to be a factor. The game is part of Boise State's early non-conference schedule, which is designed to prepare them for Mountain West competition.
  • Boise State is motivated to continue their strong start and build momentum for their conference schedule. UTRGV is looking to prove themselves against a higher-level opponent and gain valuable experience for their Southland Conference slate.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Boise State: -1200, UTRGV: 750 Boise State ★★★★★ 95%
Spread Boise State -16.5 (-110), UTRGV +16.5 (-110) Boise State covers ★★★★☆ 85%
Over/under Over 161.5 (-110), Under 161.5 (-110) Over ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Boise State Broncos -0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 161.5 24%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 161.5 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Boise State is heavily favored to win this game, with a significant edge in talent, home-court advantage, and recent performance. The Broncos are expected to control the pace and dominate on both ends of the floor. UTRGV will need to play a near-perfect game to keep it competitive, but a Boise State victory by double digits is the most likely outcome.

Predicted Score: Boise State 88, UTRGV 73


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Boise State Broncos vs. Utah Valley Wolverines Prediction NCAAB in Basketball

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Match Analysis: Boise State Broncos vs Utah Valley Wolverines – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-08
  • Time: 9:00 PM UTC
  • Location: ExtraMile Arena, Boise, Idaho

Game Overview

The Boise State Broncos will host the Utah Valley Wolverines in an early nonconference NCAA men's basketball matchup. Boise State, led by head coach Leon Rice in his 16th season, is aiming to continue its streak of strong nonconference performances and home dominance, having won 17 straight nonconference games at ExtraMile Arena. Utah Valley, entering the contest with a 1-0 record, seeks to challenge the Broncos on their home floor early in the season.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Boise State has shown strong form in recent seasons, with a fifth consecutive 20-win season target and impressive home court success, including a 17-game nonconference home winning streak. Utah Valley comes with a solid 1-0 start and had an explosive 116-35 win in their opener, indicating offensive potential but limited top-level sample size.
  • Limited recent head-to-head history exists between Boise State and Utah Valley, with no notable past matchups recorded in the latest schedules and archives, suggesting unfamiliarity that could affect gameplay and strategy.
  • No reported injuries for either team at this time, indicating that both squads will likely be at full strength.
  • Boise State benefits from home court advantage at the ExtraMile Arena where they have a lengthy nonconference winning streak. Crowd support and familiarity with the venue favor the Broncos. No adverse travel or scheduling issues are evident.
  • Boise State is motivated to maintain its strong nonconference home success and build momentum early in the season against a lesser-known opponent. Utah Valley is motivated as a visiting underdog to upset a Mountain West opponent and prove competitiveness early, which could inspire aggressive effort.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Boise State Broncos: -850, Utah Valley Wolverines: 575 Boise State Broncos ★★★★☆ 85%
Spread Boise State Broncos: -12.5 -108, Utah Valley Wolverines: +12.5 -112 Boise State Broncos to cover -12.5 ★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under Over: 147.5 -105, Under: 147.5 -115 Under 147.5 points ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Boise State Broncos -1%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 147.5 12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 147.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Boise State Broncos are favored to win, leveraging their home court edge and historical performance consistency. Utah Valley may keep it somewhat competitive but the talent gap and experience favor Boise State.

Predicted Score: Boise State Broncos 81 – Utah Valley Wolverines 66


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Boise State Broncos vs. Fresno State Bulldogs Prediction NCAAF in American Football

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Match Analysis: Boise State Broncos vs Fresno State Bulldogs – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-01
  • Time: 7:30 PM UTC
  • Location: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho

Game Overview

The Boise State Broncos (6-2) host the Fresno State Bulldogs (5-3) in this Mountain West Conference matchup. Boise State enters as a strong favorite after recent dominant performances, while Fresno State has been less consistent and is considered a significant underdog.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Boise State boasts a potent offense averaging 35.3 points per game and a robust defense allowing 23.3 points on average. They are undefeated in conference play (4-0). Fresno State has struggled recently, having lost their last game 23-0 and scoring fewer points overall, with a 5-3 record and a 2-2 conference record.
  • Recent simulations give Boise State an 88-89% chance to win over Fresno State's 11-12%, indicating Boise State's historical and seasonal dominance. Projection models estimate Boise State winning by at least two touchdowns or more.
  • No current significant injury reports or suspensions impacting either side have been identified from available data, indicating both teams may be near full strength.
  • The game is played at Boise State's home stadium, giving them a strong home-field advantage. Weather conditions and other external factors appear neutral or typical for early November in Boise, Idaho.
  • Boise State has strong motivation to maintain undefeated conference status and aim for a Mountain West championship game berth. Fresno State, as underdogs, are motivated to upset a top conference contender but face a challenging task.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Boise State Broncos: -950, Fresno State Bulldogs: 640 Boise State Broncos ★★★★☆ 89%
Spread Boise State Broncos: -17.5 (-110), Fresno State Bulldogs: +17.5 (-110) Boise State Broncos to cover -17.5 ★★★★☆ 85%
Over/under Over: 50.5 (-105), Under: 50.5 (-115) Over 50.5 points ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Boise State Broncos -2%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 50.5 37%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 50.5 at 37% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 38.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Boise State is heavily favored to win this game, likely covering the large spread and pushing the total points over 50.5 given their superior offensive and defensive metrics, home advantage, and Fresno State's recent struggles.

Predicted Score: Boise State Broncos 33 – Fresno State Bulldogs 16


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Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Boise State Broncos Prediction NCAAF in American Football

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Match Analysis: Nevada Wolf Pack vs Boise State Broncos – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-10-25
  • Time: 2:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Mackay Stadium

Game Overview

The Nevada Wolf Pack (1-6 overall, 0-3 Mountain West) host the Boise State Broncos (5-2 overall, 3-0 Mountain West) at Mackay Stadium. Boise State enters this matchup notably stronger with a five-win advantage and an unbeaten conference record, while Nevada struggles significantly with only a single win all season and no conference victories. Boise State's offense is balanced with strong passing and rushing attacks, and their defense allows 26.1 points on average. Nevada is expected to face challenges against this disciplined Boise State unit.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Boise State boasts a strong season with a 5-2 record and 3-0 conference play, winning 17 of their last 20 regular season games historically. Their QB, Maddux Madsen, completes 61% of passes with 15 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. The Broncos average 205.6 rushing yards per game led by Dylan Riley. Defensively, Boise State allows 26.1 points and focuses on tackling and sacks. Nevada is 1-6 overall, struggling offensively and defensively this season, likely to have trouble containing Boise State’s offense and building scoring drives.
  • Boise State has dominated in recent encounters and covers as a double-digit favorite 4-0 this season, winning by an average margin of 27.75 points. Historical superiority and current form heavily favor Boise State.
  • Specific injury updates are not available from current data but no significant reports indicate major missing starters for Boise State. Nevada’s injury status is uncertain but their overall performance suggests limited impact players currently.
  • The game takes place at Nevada’s Mackay Stadium, which provides home-field advantage. However, Boise State’s dominance and road performance historically offset this advantage.
  • Boise State aims to maintain their unbeaten conference record and continue a season-winning streak, likely highly motivated. Nevada is seeking their second win, facing low morale but motivated to improve their season and upset a conference rival.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Boise State Broncos: -1800, Nevada Wolf Pack: 1000 Boise State Broncos ★★★★★ 92%
Spread Boise State Broncos: -21.5 -105, Nevada Wolf Pack: 21.5 -115 Boise State Broncos -21.5 ★★★★☆ 85%
Over/under Over: 50.5 -112, Under: 50.5 -108 Under 50.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Boise State Broncos -3%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 50.5 25%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 50.5 at 25% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 27.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Boise State Broncos are strongly favored to win comfortably given the disparity in form, stats, and historical dominance.

Predicted Score: Boise State Broncos 38 – 14 Nevada Wolf Pack


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