Match Analysis: Ethyn Ewing vs Billy Brand – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-07
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Wheatland, California, United States
Game Overview
Ethyn Ewing faces Billy Brand in a pivotal MMA matchup at Urijah Faber's A1 Combat 32. Ewing enters as the heavy favorite, with significant odds disparity reflecting his perceived edge in skill, recent form, and local support. Brand, the underdog, is known for his durability and counter-striking, but faces a tough stylistic challenge.
Key Factors to Consider
- Ethyn Ewing has won 4 of his last 5 fights, all by decision or submission, showing strong grappling and cardio. Billy Brand has gone 2-3 in his last 5, with both wins coming via late stoppages against less experienced opposition.
- No prior H2H matchup exists between Ewing and Brand.
- No reported injuries for either fighter. Both are cleared and expected to compete at full strength.
- Ewing is fighting in his home state, with strong crowd support and familiarity with the venue. The event is promoted by Urijah Faber, known for favoring technical, well-rounded fighters like Ewing.
- Ewing is seeking a statement win to push for a UFC contract. Brand is fighting to regain momentum after a string of losses and prove he belongs at this level.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -280, away: +240 | Ethyn Ewing | ★★★★☆ 74% |
| Spread | home: -1.5, away: +1.5 | Ethyn Ewing -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | over: -110, under: -110 | Over 2.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 71% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ethyn Ewing -2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Ethyn Ewing at -2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Ethyn Ewing wins by decision or late stoppage, controlling the pace and out-grappling Brand over three rounds.
Predicted Score: Ethyn Ewing wins by unanimous decision