Match Analysis: Beneil Dariush vs Benoit Saint-Denis – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: November 15, 2025
• Time: 9:00 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Fight Night event

Game Overview

Beneil Dariush (+158) faces Benoit Saint-Denis (-183) in a lightweight (155 lbs) matchup. Saint-Denis is favored as the stronger striker with recent momentum, while Dariush returns from a layoff but possesses superior grappling and submission skills. This is a competitive clash between contrasting fighting styles.

Key Factors to Consider

• Dariush recently defeated Renato Moicano via unanimous decision at UFC 317 (Jun 2024), showcasing his ability to control fights over five rounds. Saint-Denis appears to be the more active competitor with recent fight activity and striking prowess. Dariush's extended layoff between fights raises questions about ring rust and timing.
• No previous head-to-head record exists between these fighters. This is a fresh matchup with no direct historical data to reference.
• No reported injuries for either fighter at this time. Both appear healthy and cleared to compete.
• The three-round format (typical for non-championship UFC bouts) favors aggressive, high-output strikers. Saint-Denis' striking advantages become more pronounced in shorter fights. Dariush's grappling and submission game may not have sufficient rounds to fully implement his strategy.
• Both fighters are competing at elite lightweight level with career trajectory implications. Saint-Denis carries favoritism and momentum. Dariush faces pressure to prove his recent layoff hasn't diminished his competitive edge.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Dariush +158 / Saint-Denis -183	Saint-Denis Win	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	Dariush +3.5 (105) / Saint-Denis -3.5 (-135)	Saint-Denis -3.5	★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds (-165) / Under 1.5 rounds (125)	Over 1.5 Rounds	★★★★☆ 71%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Draw -100%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 6%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Benoit Saint-Denis wins by decision or striking-based finish. The shorter three-round format, combined with Saint-Denis' striking advantages and recent activity, outweighs Dariush's superior grappling credentials.

Predicted Score: Saint-Denis 29-28 via Unanimous Decision or Saint-Denis TKO Round 2

Match Analysis: Benoit Saint-Denis vs Mauricio Ruffy – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-06
• Time: 9:15 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Fight Night, Paris

Game Overview

Benoit Saint-Denis faces Mauricio Ruffy in a UFC Fight Night bout in Paris. While Ruffy enters as the betting favorite, analysts suggest Saint-Denis is on a higher fighting level, especially in grappling and overall skill set.

Key Factors to Consider

• Saint-Denis has demonstrated superior recent performance with well-rounded skills and strong grappling, while Ruffy’s grappling remains relatively untested against high-level competition.
• No direct head-to-head matches between them previously; stylistic matchup favors Saint-Denis’ grappling advantage.
• No significant injury concerns reported for either fighter prior to the bout.
• Fight taking place in Paris could provide a slight home crowd advantage for Saint-Denis; no travel or external distractions noted.
• Both fighters motivated, but Saint-Denis appears more driven to prove himself against a favored opponent.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	145	Benoit Saint-Denis	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	3.5 100	Benoit Saint-Denis +3.5	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	1.5 -160/124	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Benoit Saint-Denis 42%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 46%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 46% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 36.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Benoit Saint-Denis to win by decision

Predicted Score: Saint-Denis wins by decision after 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Benoit Saint-Denis vs Kyle Prepolec – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-10
• Time: 2:15 AM UTC
• Location: Bell Centre, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Game Overview

Benoit Saint-Denis is set to face Kyle Prepolec at UFC 315. Saint-Denis, ranked #13 in the lightweight division, was initially scheduled to fight Joel Alvarez before Prepolec stepped in as a last-minute replacement.

Key Factors to Consider

• Benoit Saint-Denis has a strong background with a 13-3 record, while Kyle Prepolec is riding a three-fight win streak after being released from the UFC in 2020.
• No previous head-to-head matchups between the two fighters.
• No significant injury reports for either fighter at this time.
• Prepolec is fighting on short notice, which may impact his performance. Saint-Denis benefits from fighting on home soil.
• Both fighters are highly motivated; Saint-Denis wants to maintain his ranking, and Prepolec aims to prove himself in the UFC.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Benoit Saint-Denis -1050, Kyle Prepolec +675	Benoit Saint-Denis wins	★★★★☆ 85%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds +145, Under 1.5 rounds -188	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Benoit Saint-Denis 4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 -8%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Benoit Saint-Denis at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 42.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Benoit Saint-Denis is favored due to his higher ranking and more extensive UFC experience.

Predicted Score: Benoit Saint-Denis wins via stoppage in the first round.