Match Analysis: Benfica vs Casa Pia – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 8:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica
Game Overview
Benfica hosts Casa Pia in a Liga Portugal clash at Estádio da Luz. Benfica is a dominant force in the league and historically has had a strong record against Casa Pia, especially at home. Casa Pia, while showing some resilience away, has struggled defensively and faces a tough challenge against a Benfica side looking to maintain their position at the top of the table.
Key Factors to Consider
- Benfica is in mixed form but has won two home games recently and boasts a strong attacking record, scoring 9 goals in their last 5 matches. Casa Pia is also in mixed form, with defensive vulnerabilities highlighted by a recent 5-3 loss to Estrela da Amadora. Casa Pia has won two away games but has struggled against top-tier opposition.
- Benfica has dominated the head-to-head record, winning 4 of the last 6 meetings, with 1 draw and 1 win for Casa Pia. Benfica has a 67% win rate in Liga Portugal encounters against Casa Pia, scoring 1.67 goals per game and allowing only 0.67 on average. Casa Pia has not won any of their last five matches against Benfica.
- Benfica will be without Nicolás Otamendi (suspension), Alexander Bah (injury), Manu Silva (injury), and Bruma (injury). Casa Pia will be missing Claudio Mendes (injury) and Kiki (injury), which could further impact their defensive stability.
- Benfica’s home advantage at Estádio da Luz is significant, and their recent form at home, combined with Casa Pia’s defensive issues, increases the likelihood of a Benfica win. Casa Pia’s injuries and defensive record make them vulnerable, especially against a strong attacking side like Benfica.
- Benfica is motivated to maintain their position at the top of the league and secure a win against a struggling Casa Pia. Casa Pia is fighting to avoid relegation and will be looking to improve their defensive record, but their motivation may not be enough to overcome Benfica’s dominance.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -675, away: 1400, draw: 675 | Benfica | ★★★★★ 90% |
| Spread | home: -2 -112, away: 2 -108 | Benfica -2 | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Over/under | over: 3 -112, under: 3 -108 | Over | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Benfica -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 3 23% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 3 at 23% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 25.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Benfica is expected to win this match, given their strong home form, historical dominance over Casa Pia, and Casa Pia’s defensive weaknesses. The most likely outcome is a Benfica victory, with a high probability of a multi-goal margin.
Predicted Score: Benfica 3-1 Casa Pia