Match Analysis: Beneil Dariush vs Benoit Saint-Denis – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: November 15, 2025
• Time: 9:00 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Fight Night event

Game Overview

Beneil Dariush (+158) faces Benoit Saint-Denis (-183) in a lightweight (155 lbs) matchup. Saint-Denis is favored as the stronger striker with recent momentum, while Dariush returns from a layoff but possesses superior grappling and submission skills. This is a competitive clash between contrasting fighting styles.

Key Factors to Consider

• Dariush recently defeated Renato Moicano via unanimous decision at UFC 317 (Jun 2024), showcasing his ability to control fights over five rounds. Saint-Denis appears to be the more active competitor with recent fight activity and striking prowess. Dariush's extended layoff between fights raises questions about ring rust and timing.
• No previous head-to-head record exists between these fighters. This is a fresh matchup with no direct historical data to reference.
• No reported injuries for either fighter at this time. Both appear healthy and cleared to compete.
• The three-round format (typical for non-championship UFC bouts) favors aggressive, high-output strikers. Saint-Denis' striking advantages become more pronounced in shorter fights. Dariush's grappling and submission game may not have sufficient rounds to fully implement his strategy.
• Both fighters are competing at elite lightweight level with career trajectory implications. Saint-Denis carries favoritism and momentum. Dariush faces pressure to prove his recent layoff hasn't diminished his competitive edge.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Dariush +158 / Saint-Denis -183	Saint-Denis Win	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	Dariush +3.5 (105) / Saint-Denis -3.5 (-135)	Saint-Denis -3.5	★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds (-165) / Under 1.5 rounds (125)	Over 1.5 Rounds	★★★★☆ 71%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Draw -100%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 6%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Benoit Saint-Denis wins by decision or striking-based finish. The shorter three-round format, combined with Saint-Denis' striking advantages and recent activity, outweighs Dariush's superior grappling credentials.

Predicted Score: Saint-Denis 29-28 via Unanimous Decision or Saint-Denis TKO Round 2

Match Analysis: Beneil Dariush vs Renato Moicano – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-29
• Time: 2:30 AM UTC
• Location: UFC 317 Event

Game Overview

This UFC 317 featherweight bout features Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano. Originally scheduled for UFC 311 but postponed, both fighters come in with motivations linked to climbing rankings and future title contention. Dariush aims to rebound after recent losses, leveraging his submission expertise and tactical preparation. Moicano comes off a setback in a title fight and is determined to avenge past results and regain momentum with improved training and focus.

Key Factors to Consider

• Beneil Dariush has shown resilience with a 3-2 record in his last five, possessing 5 KO/TKO and 8 submission wins, indicating a well-rounded finishing ability. Renato Moicano, with a record of 20-6-1, emphasizes improved conditioning and training this camp, confident in his ability to overcome Dariush based on enhanced diet and preparation.
• The fighters have not faced each other before. Their originally scheduled match in January was delayed due to Moicano getting a title shot. Their styles and recent performances suggest a close contest, with Dariush banking on his grappling and Moicano on his striking and conditioning.
• No reported injuries affecting either fighter for this bout.
• The fight is part of a major UFC event, UFC 317, adding significant exposure and pressure. Moicano's previous rapid call-up to a title fight and Dariush's strategic planning time provide contrasting preparation backgrounds.
• Moicano is motivated by the goal to climb rankings and secure another title shot, focusing on improved training and fan support. Dariush is motivated by a desire to decisively beat Moicano following prior cancellations and losses, aiming to prove he remains a top contender.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Beneil Dariush: -105, Renato Moicano: -115	Beneil Dariush	★★★☆☆ 56%
Spread	Beneil Dariush: 3.5 -180, Renato Moicano: -3.5 130	Renato Moicano -3.5	★★★☆☆ 54%
Over/under	Over: 2.5 -110, Under: 2.5 -120	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Beneil Dariush 2%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 16%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Beneil Dariush is slightly favored based on his well-rounded skills, strategic camp, and fighting style suited to counter Moicano, whose motivation and conditioning improvements make this a competitive matchup. Expect a tightly contested fight with Dariush edging out a decision or submission victory.

Predicted Score: Beneil Dariush wins by decision or submission in a competitive 3-round fight