Match Analysis: Toledo Rockets vs Belmont Bruins – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-26
- Time: 6:30 PM UTC
- Location: Alico Arena, Fort Myers, Florida
Game Overview
The Toledo Rockets face the Belmont Bruins in a non-conference NCAA Men's Basketball matchup at Alico Arena. This is the first-ever meeting between the two programs on the hardwood. Belmont enters the game with a perfect 6-0 record, having just defeated Saint Francis 94-57. Toledo's recent form and roster details are less documented, but the game is part of the GEICO Coconut Hoops event. Belmont is a nationally ranked team with a strong defensive reputation and a deep roster, while Toledo is expected to be a competitive mid-major side.
Key Factors to Consider
- Belmont is 6-0 this season, averaging 91.7 points per game and allowing just 60.8 points per game. Their defense ranks 10th nationally in field goal percentage defense and 8th in defensive rebounds. They handed out 26 assists on 34 made field goals in their last game, showing excellent ball movement. Tyler Lundblade leads the team in scoring, while Jack Smiley and Sam Orme have shown breakout performances. Toledo's recent results are not available in the provided sources, but they are generally a solid MAC team with a balanced roster.
- This is the first meeting between Toledo and Belmont in men's basketball. There is no direct head-to-head history, but Belmont has a strong record against MAC teams in recent years. In baseball, Belmont has a 6-2 record against Toledo, but that is not directly relevant to basketball.
- No injuries or roster changes have been reported for either team in the provided sources.
- The game is being played at a neutral site (Alico Arena, Fort Myers, FL) as part of the GEICO Coconut Hoops event. The neutral venue may slightly reduce any home-court advantage for Toledo. The game will be broadcast on FloCollege, and live stats will be available.
- Belmont is looking to maintain their undefeated record and build momentum for their MVC schedule. Toledo is seeking a marquee win over a nationally ranked team to boost their resume for the NCAA tournament.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Belmont Bruins: -230, Toledo Rockets: +190 | Belmont Bruins | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Spread | Belmont Bruins: -5.5 (-105), Toledo Rockets: +5.5 (-115) | Belmont Bruins -5.5 | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Over/under | Over 162.5 (-112), Under 162.5 (-108) | Over 162.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Belmont Bruins -21% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 162.5 10% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 162.5 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Belmont is favored due to their superior record, national rankings, and strong defensive metrics. Toledo is likely to be competitive, but Belmont's depth and experience should be the difference. Expect a close first half, but Belmont to pull away in the second half.
Predicted Score: Belmont Bruins 84, Toledo Rockets 78