Match Analysis: Belal Muhammad vs Ian Garry – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 22, 2025
- Time: 8:15 PM UTC
- Location: Not specified in available data
Game Overview
Belal Muhammad faces Ian Garry in a UFC matchup where Muhammad enters with notable physical disadvantages. Muhammad will be fighting at a 4-inch height disadvantage and a 2.5-inch reach disadvantage against Garry. This is a significant physical mismatch that will heavily influence fight dynamics, striking exchanges, and clinch control. The odds heavily favor Garry, reflecting both his physical advantages and likely superior striking range and defensive capabilities.
Key Factors to Consider
- Current form and recent fight results for both fighters are not available in the provided data. Historical win-loss records and recent performance trends would be critical to assess momentum and conditioning levels.
- No previous matchup history between Belal Muhammad and Ian Garry is available in the provided data. This appears to be their first encounter.
- No injury information is available for either fighter at this time.
- The significant physical disadvantage (4 inches in height, 2.5 inches in reach) for Belal Muhammad is the primary external factor. This could impact his ability to establish distance, defend takedowns effectively, and control the fight's range.
- Specific motivation factors are not available in the provided data. However, Belal Muhammad may be motivated to overcome the physical disadvantage, while Garry would be seeking to capitalize on his significant reach and height advantages.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Belal Muhammad +220 / Ian Garry -270 | Ian Garry victory | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Belal Muhammad +3.5 (-135) / Ian Garry -3.5 (100) | Ian Garry wins by more than 3.5 rounds (or Belal Muhammad loses by 3.5 or fewer rounds) | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 (-315) / Under 2.5 (230) | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ian Garry 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 151% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 151% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 65.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Ian Garry is the strong favorite with a -270 moneyline. The physical advantages and betting odds suggest Garry should control the fight, particularly in striking exchanges where his reach advantage is most pronounced. However, Muhammad's willingness to fight at a disadvantage and potential grappling or clinch-oriented strategy could provide paths to competitive rounds or an upset victory.
Predicted Score: Ian Garry wins by decision or submission, likely in rounds 2-3. Estimated 29-28 or 30-27 scorecard in Garry's favor if going to decision, reflecting his physical advantages in striking and range control. Potential for early finish (Rounds 1-2) given the significant reach disparity favoring Garry.