Match Analysis: Baysangur Susurkaev vs Eric McConico – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-15
• Time: 11:00 PM UTC
• Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, NY

Game Overview

Undefeated rising prospect Baisangur Susurkaev (10-0) faces veteran Eric McConico (10-3-1) in a middleweight bout. Susurkaev is heavily favored, known for his high striking volume and strong wrestling-based grappling, coming off a submission win in UFC 319. McConico is a southpaw with solid cardio and seven stoppage wins but slower striking pace and less accuracy.

Key Factors to Consider

• Susurkaev maintains an unblemished 10-0 record with 9 finishes and significantly higher striking volume (4.56/min) and accuracy (58%) compared to McConico’s 1.51/min and 36%. Susurkaev averages nearly 3 takedowns per 3 rounds with 85% takedown defense, dominating the wrestling facet.
• No previous matchup exists between Susurkaev and McConico.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout.
• Fight held at Madison Square Garden, a neutral venue with no known environmental advantage. Susurkaev benefits from a full training camp; McConico is experienced but older at 35.
• Susurkaev, at 24 and undefeated, is highly motivated to make a statement in his second UFC fight. McConico, after a recent split decision win, looks to establish himself further but faces a younger, hungrier opponent.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: -1050, away: 675	Baisangur Susurkaev	★★★★☆ 88%
Spread	home: -575 (Baysangur -7.5), away: 350 (McConico +7.5)	Baisangur Susurkaev -7.5	★★★★☆ 85%
Over/under	over: 195 (1.5 rounds), under: -260 (1.5 rounds)	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 78%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Baysangur Susurkaev 590%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 -6%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Baysangur Susurkaev at 590% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 87.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Baisangur Susurkaev to win decisively, likely by submission or stoppage within early rounds reflecting superior striking and wrestling.

Predicted Score: Susurkaev wins by submission or TKO in Round 1

Top EV Parlay for MMA/Boxing – November 15, 2025

Game	Pick	Odds	EV
Baysangur Susurkaev vs. Eric McConico Prediction	Baysangur Susurkaev	-1050	590%
Gerald Meerschaert vs. Kyle Daukaus Prediction	Under 1.5	135	69%
Roman Kopylov vs. Gregory Rodrigues Prediction	Under 1.5	130	66%

Combined Odds: +492 |
Wager: $20 —
Potential Payout: $118.4

Match Analysis: Baysangur Susurkaev vs Eric Nolan – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-17
• Time: 1:45 AM UTC
• Location: United Center, Chicago

Game Overview

Baysangur Susurkaev, a fast-rising undefeated prospect (9-0), makes a record-setting fast UFC debut just 4 days after winning his contract with a first-round knockout. Eric Nolan (8-3), the CFFC middleweight champion on a 4-fight winning streak with 3 consecutive KOs, moves up from welterweight to middleweight for his UFC debut. Both fighters show knockout power, but Susurkaev's speed, reach advantage, and frantic recent activity mark him as a heavy favorite.

Key Factors to Consider

• Susurkaev is undefeated with 8 of 9 wins by knockout, mostly early finishes. Nolan is hot with 4 straight wins including 3 knockouts and holds a title in Cage Fury Fighting Championships.
• No previous matchup between Susurkaev and Nolan; first meeting.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• Susurkaev accepted the fight on just 4 days rest after Dana White’s Contender Series victory — fastest UFC debut turnaround in history — demonstrating high confidence and motivation. The fight takes place at UFC 319 in Chicago.
• Susurkaev highly motivated to prove himself on short notice in UFC, supported by Dana White’s praise. Nolan motivated by UFC debut and moving up weight class, which may affect performance.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Susurkaev -1000, Nolan +675	Susurkaev	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Susurkaev -1.5	Susurkaev by more than 1.5 rounds (i.e., finishes early)	★★★★☆ 80%
Over/under	Over 1.5 (+155), Under 1.5 (-195)	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 75%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Baysangur Susurkaev -3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 6%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Baysangur Susurkaev to win by first-round knockout

Predicted Score: Susurkaev wins by first-round knockout

Match Analysis: Murtaza Talha vs Baysangur Susurkaev – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-13
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Contender Series 2025 Venue (Exact location not specified)

Game Overview

Murtaza Talha (7-1) faces undefeated Baysangur Susurkaev (8-0) on short notice at middleweight in DWCS 2025. Talha is the more experienced fighter with strong wrestling and aggressive ground-and-pound but has had an ACL injury and loss in CS before. Susurkaev is a fast-finishing knockout artist, unbeaten, taking the fight on short notice. Both fighters have a combined 12 first-round finishes, with contrasting styles presenting an intriguing matchup.

Key Factors to Consider

• Talha has a 7-1 record with 7 finishes (4 KOs, 3 subs) but recently struggled with an ACL injury and contested a higher weight class previously. Susurkaev is 8-0 with 7 KOs, showing explosive power and pace. Both fighters have heavy finishes; Talha never goes to decision, while Susurkaev has mostly KO wins and one decision.
• No previous fights between Talha and Susurkaev. Both bring early finish styles and aggressive approaches, making outcomes highly dependent on fight start conditions and preparation.
• Talha is returning from ACL surgery within the last year and had a layoff before his last CS fight. Susurkaev is taking this bout on short notice, which may impact conditioning.
• Susurkaev stepping in on short notice might put him at a conditioning disadvantage but could be highly motivated to keep his undefeated streak. Talha has home advantage being prepared for this event and fighting at closer to his natural weight.
• Talha wants to redeem himself after a previous CS loss and prove durability post-injury. Susurkaev is motivated to maintain 8-0 undefeated record and capitalize on an opportunity in DWCS for UFC entry.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Baysangur Susurkaev: -275, Murtaza Talha: 215	Away (Baysangur Susurkaev)	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Susurkaev -1.5: -110, Talha +1.5: -110	Susurkaev -1.5	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds: -120, Under 1.5 rounds: 100	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Baysangur Susurkaev -10%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Baysangur Susurkaev at -10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Baysangur Susurkaev to win by KO/TKO

Predicted Score: Baysangur Susurkaev wins by KO/TKO in Round 1

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Ilian Bouafia vs. Neemias Santana Prediction	Ilian Bouafia Win	-210	★★★★☆ 72% (72%)
Yuri Panferov vs. Christopher Ewert Prediction	Christopher Ewert Win	-160	★★★★☆ 72% (72%)
Murtaza Talha vs. Baysangur Susurkaev Prediction	Susurkaev -1.5	-110	★★★☆☆ 68% (68%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +358

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $91.59