Match Analysis: Jefferson Nascimento vs Baysangur Makaev – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-27
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: Tenerife Sports Pavillion Santiago Martin, Tenerife, Spain
Game Overview
The interim lightweight title bout between unbeaten Jefferson Nascimento (11-0) and top Swedish lightweight prospect Baysangur Makaev (7-1) at LFA 218 in Tenerife, Spain.
Key Factors to Consider
- Nascimento maintains an undefeated 11-0 record with wins evenly split among knockouts, submissions, and decisions, showing versatile finishing ability. Makaev holds a 7-1 record, with recent bouts indicating some inconsistency but strong motivation and preparation for this big stage.
- No prior direct matchups exist between Nascimento and Makaev.
- No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout; both fighters successfully made weight with a catchweight of ~154.5 lbs.
- Fighting on the historic LFA debut event in Europe provides home-crowd advantage and heightened motivation for Makaev, representing Spain. Nascimento, coming from Brazil and training under Renovação Fight Team, faces travel and environment adaptation.
- Nascimento aims to defend his unbeaten streak and interim title to advance his UFC prospects, remaining focused and confident. Makaev is highly motivated by the historic event and national pride to upset the unbeaten champion on European soil.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nascimento: -150, Makaev: +130, Draw: +2500 | Nascimento | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Nascimento -1.5: -140, Makaev +1.5: +120 | Nascimento -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: +110, Under 2.5 rounds: -130 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Home 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Jefferson Nascimento to win by submission
Predicted Score: Nascimento wins by submission in Round 2