Match Analysis: Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-06
- Time: 4:36 PM UTC
- Location: Citizens Bank Park
Game Overview
The Philadelphia Phillies host the Baltimore Orioles in the final game of their three-game series, with the Phillies leading 2-0. Philadelphia is favored both on the moneyline and spread, playing at home with stronger recent form and superior pitching. Baltimore, however, has shown some resilience as underdogs recently and has a strong pitching prospect in Trevor Rogers.
Key Factors to Consider
- Phillies are currently 65-48 and leading the NL East. They have won 4 of their last 5 games and have a strong overall pitching staff (3.75 ERA) and offensive output. Orioles are 51-63, have won 4 of their last 6 games as underdogs against NL East teams, but struggle overall in this matchup.
- Phillies have taken the first two games in the series convincingly (13-3 and 5-0). Historically, Phillies have a better record and stronger performances at home.
- No significant injuries reported for either team that impact starting pitchers or key offensive contributors.
- Game is at Citizens Bank Park with standard conditions and no significant weather concerns reported. Phillies have home advantage.
- Phillies are motivated to complete the series sweep to consolidate their NL East lead. Orioles, out of playoff contention, are seeking to avoid a sweep and build momentum.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Phillies -158, Orioles +134 | Philadelphia Phillies | β β β β β 78% |
Spread | Phillies -1.5 +130, Orioles +1.5 -156 | Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Over/under | Over 8 -114, Under 8 -106 | Under 8 runs | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Philadelphia Phillies -0% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8 11% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Philadelphia Phillies to win on the moneyline
Predicted Score: Philadelphia Phillies 5, Baltimore Orioles 2