The Cleveland Guardians host the Baltimore Orioles in a mid-season MLB matchup where the Guardians are slight favorites at home, featuring a pitching duel between Logan Allen (CLE) and Charlie Morton (BAL).
Key Factors to Consider
Guardians hold a 51-50 record, winning 4 of their last 5 home games and 6 of their last 7 day games against losing teams; Orioles are 44-57 with 6 losses in their last 7 games and a 10-game road losing streak versus AL Central teams.
Charlie Morton has a strong personal record vs Guardians (3-1, 2.76 ERA in last 5 starts); Logan Allen is 2-0 with a 3.45 ERA lifetime vs Orioles. Guardians won the last encounter 3-2.
No major injuries reported affecting key players; both teams likely close to full strength.
Game played in Cleveland home stadium under usual day game conditions; Orioles face travel fatigue on a road trip; weather and park factors neutral.
Guardians motivated to avoid a series sweep and maintain positive momentum; Orioles seek to rebound to avoid being swept and prepare for upcoming home series.
Location: George M. Steinbrenner Field, Tampa, Florida
Game Overview
The Tampa Bay Rays (52-47) host the Baltimore Orioles (43-54) in the final game of the series. The Rays lead 2-0 in the series and aim to complete a sweep. The probable starting pitchers are Ryan Pepiot for the Rays, who holds a 6-7 record with a 3.38 ERA, and Trevor Rogers for the Orioles, with a 2-1 record and a stellar 1.53 ERA. The Rays are slight favorites at home, with moneyline odds around -126, while Orioles are underdogs at +108.
Key Factors to Consider
The Rays have a better overall record and have dominated the Orioles in this series with two wins (11-1, 4-3). Tampa Bay's pitching and offense have been effective, whereas Baltimore's team offensive average is 4.10 runs per game ranked 22nd, and pitching struggles with a 4.99 ERA and 1.41 WHIP, ranking 27th in MLB.
In series play, the Rays have been dominant, winning the first two games decisively and denying Baltimore a win in the series so far. During Ryan Pepiot’s starts, his team performs better as favorites (7-3) whereas when Trevor Rogers starts as an underdog, Orioles go 2-1.
No major injury concerns reported affecting starting pitchers or key players for either team impacting this matchup significantly.
Home field advantage for the Rays at George M. Steinbrenner Field, with the Rays more comfortable and motivated to complete the series sweep.
Tampa Bay seeks to strengthen their playoff positioning with a sweep, while Baltimore aims to avoid a series whitewash and salvage momentum moving forward.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Baltimore Orioles: +108, Tampa Bay Rays: -126
Tampa Bay Rays
★★★★☆ 72%
Spread
Baltimore Orioles +1.5: -210, Tampa Bay Rays -1.5: 172
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under
Over 9: 100, Under 9: -122
Under 9
★★★☆☆ 60%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Tampa Bay Rays 4%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 9 4%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Tampa Bay Rays at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Tampa Bay Rays to win the match on the moneyline, cover the -1.5 run spread, and the total runs to go under 9.
Predicted Score: Tampa Bay Rays 5 – Baltimore Orioles 3
The Baltimore Orioles (43-50) host the Miami Marlins (42-51) in a closely matched MLB game at Camden Yards. Both teams have similar records this season, making this a competitive matchup with the Orioles slightly favored at home.
Key Factors to Consider
The Orioles have won 4 of their last 5 games and are 5-0 against the spread in that stretch. The Marlins have had mixed results lately. Orioles' home games have seen a slight over trend with 23 of 45 games going over total runs.
This season’s series is split, with Orioles winning one game 5-2 and losing another 0-6 against the Marlins, showing some volatility in outcomes.
No critical injuries reported impacting starting lineups or pitching staffs for either team.
Weather at Camden Yards is warm at 84°F with low rain chances (11%) and moderate wind (5 mph), conditions favorable for scoring.
Both teams sit below .500 and are fighting for momentum in the midseason stretch, with Orioles looking to capitalize at home to build confidence.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Baltimore Orioles -120, Miami Marlins +102
Baltimore Orioles
★★★★☆ 72%
Spread
Baltimore Orioles -1.5 at -196, Miami Marlins +1.5 at +162
Baltimore Orioles -1.5
★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under
Over 9 runs at -120, Under 9 runs at -102
Under 9 runs
★★★☆☆ 60%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Baltimore Orioles 6%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 9 13%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 9 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Baltimore Orioles to win outright on the moneyline, cover the -1.5 run spread, and the game to go under 9 total runs.
The Baltimore Orioles host the New York Mets in a crucial MLB matchup. The Orioles are currently favored on the moneyline, while the Mets are favored on the run line. Recent form and starting pitcher matchups will play a significant role in determining the outcome.
Key Factors to Consider
The Orioles have been solid at home, but the Mets have shown strong form on the road. The Mets' starting pitcher, David Peterson, has a favorable ERA compared to the Orioles' Charlie Morton.
Historical data shows mixed results, but recent trends suggest the Orioles have covered well as underdogs against NL East opponents.
No significant injuries reported for either team.
Weather conditions and crowd support could influence the game, but detailed weather forecasts are not available.
Both teams are motivated, with the Mets seeking to maintain their winning streak and the Orioles looking to improve their home record.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Orioles: -116, Mets: -102
Orioles
★★★☆☆ 53%
Spread
Orioles +1.5: -182, Mets -1.5: +150
Orioles +1.5
★★★☆☆ 58%
Over/under
Over 10.5: -110, Under 10.5: -110
Under 10.5
★★★☆☆ 51%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Baltimore Orioles -3%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 10.5 -3%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 10.5 at -3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Based on recent trends and starting pitcher metrics, the Mets have a slight edge.