A Brasileirão Série A fixture between Bahia (home) and São Paulo (away) promises a balanced but slightly home-favored contest. Bahia shows stronger goalscoring at home, while São Paulo has not won away this season and is struggling for form on the road. The head-to-head is close over the last 30+ meetings, but recent trends show a lack of goals and BTTS.
Key Factors to Consider
Bahia averages 1.56 goals per match at home, with 71.43% of home games seeing over 1.5 goals. São Paulo averages 1.21 goals per match and is less prolific on the road, with 56.25% of away games over 1.5 goals and just 31.25% over 2.5. São Paulo has not won an away game this season in Serie A[1][2][3].
Bahia has won 10 of the last 30 direct matches, São Paulo 13, with 7 draws. Average goals per match between them is 2.10. Recent meetings have seen both teams fail to score, with no BTTS in the last 2 matches[1][3].
No significant injury news available from current sources.
Home advantage for Bahia is notable, but no specific external disruptions such as weather or travel issues are reported.
Bahia is motivated to solidify their home form, while São Paulo aims to turn around their poor away record. Neither team is in crisis, but both will be eager for points.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Bahia: 111 | São Paulo: 280 | Draw: 218
Bahia or Draw
★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread
Bahia: -0.25 -125 | São Paulo: 25 105
Bahia -0.25
★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under
Over: 2 -120 | Under: 2 100
Under 2
★★★☆☆ 55%
Top EV Betting Odds
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Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Bahia -11%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 2 8%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bahia is favored at home, given their superior home scoring and São Paulo's poor away form. However, recent head-to-head data suggests a tight game, possibly low-scoring. Expect a narrow Bahia win or a draw, with a slight preference for under 2 goals.
Predicted Score: 1-0 or 1-1 (most likely 1-0 to Bahia)
Internacional-RS hosts Bahia in the Copa Libertadores. Internacional has a strong head-to-head record against Bahia, with 13 wins out of 23 matches, while Bahia has won 4 matches.
Key Factors to Consider
Internacional-RS generally performs well against Bahia, with a higher win rate and goal average compared to Bahia.
Historically, Internacional-RS dominates Bahia with a 13-4 win-loss record.
No specific injury information is available.
No significant external factors mentioned.
Both teams are likely motivated to win, but Internacional-RS has more at stake given their home advantage.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Internacional-RS: 100, Bahia: 285, Draw: 220
Internacional-RS
★★★★☆ 70%
Spread
Internacional-RS: -0.5 100, Bahia: 50 -130
Internacional-RS -0.5
★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under
Over 2.25: -118, Under 2.25: -112
Under 2.25
★★★☆☆ 55%
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Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Internacional-RS 20%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 2.25 4%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Internacional-RS at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Internacional-RS is likely to win based on historical performance and home advantage.
This match pits Grêmio against Bahia in the Brazilian Campeonato. Grêmio has a slight edge historically, but Bahia has shown recent form improvement. The match is expected to be competitive, with both teams capable of scoring.
Key Factors to Consider
Grêmio has a traditionally strong record, while Bahia has improved recently. Grêmio's home advantage is a significant factor.
Grêmio has historically won more matches against Bahia, but recent encounters have been closely contested.
Grêmio has injuries to key players like Cristian Olivera and Jemerson, while Bahia is dealing with injuries to Luciano Rodríguez and Jean Lucas.
The match is at Grêmio's home ground, which could influence the outcome.
Both teams are motivated to secure points, but Grêmio may have an edge due to their historical dominance.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Grêmio: 145, Bahia: 205, Draw: 215
Grêmio win
★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread
Grêmio: -0.25 110, Bahia: 25 -130
Grêmio covers
★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under
Over: 2.25 -105, Under: 2.25 -115
Under
★★★☆☆ 55%
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Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Grêmio -99%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 2.25 -99%
⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.
Predicted Outcome
Grêmio is likely to win due to their home advantage and historical dominance, but Bahia's recent form suggests a close match.
This Brazilian Campeonato match between Bahia and Vitoria is expected to be competitive, with Bahia favored due to their home advantage and current form.
Key Factors to Consider
Bahia has shown consistent performance, but Vitoria is in contention for the semi-finals in Baiano 1, indicating strong form.
The head-to-head record shows a closely matched history with Vitoria slightly ahead, but recent encounters have seen Bahia win more often.
No detailed injury reports are available for this match.
The match is at Bahia's home, which could give them an edge.
Both teams are highly motivated, with Vitoria pushing for semi-finals and Bahia looking to secure points at home.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Bahia: -130, Vitoria: 380, Draw: 260
Bahia
★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread
Bahia: -0.75 100, Vitoria: 75 -120
Bahia
★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under
Over: 2.25 -112, Under: 2.25 -108
Under
★★★☆☆ 52%
Top EV Betting Odds
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Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Bahia -3%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 2.25 0%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bahia is likely to win due to their home advantage and recent form, but Vitoria's competitiveness and semi-final push make them a formidable opponent.
Atlético Nacional hosts Bahia in a crucial CONMEBOL Libertadores Group F match. Atlético Nacional is favored to win, given their strong performance in recent matches and the home advantage.
Key Factors to Consider
Atlético Nacional has been performing well in the Colombian Primera A and has a strong lineup that could give them an edge. Bahia, however, has been showing improvement in their recent games.
Recent head-to-head data is not available, but Atlético Nacional's home record is generally strong.
Injury reports are not detailed, but both teams are expected to field their best possible lineups.
Weather conditions in Medellin are typically favorable for soccer matches, which should not affect the game's pace.
Both teams are motivated to secure crucial points in the Libertadores group stage.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Atlético Nacional S.A: 100, Bahia: 295, Draw: 215
Atlético Nacional S.A
★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread
Atlético Nacional S.A: -0.5 -102, Bahia: 50 -128
Atlético Nacional S.A to win by 1 goal
★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under
Over: 2.25 -112, Under: 2.25 -118
Under 2.25
★★★☆☆ 50%
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Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Atlético Nacional S.A 10%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 2.25 2%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Atlético Nacional S.A at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Atlético Nacional is likely to win, given their home advantage and recent form.
Two teams in strong contention for continental spots, Flamengo (4th) and Bahia (7th), clash in a mid-table battle with significant implications for both side's CONMEBOL Libertadores ambitions. Flamengo is favored at home, but Bahia's form and recent history suggest they can be dangerous.
Key Factors to Consider
Flamengo is currently in 4th place and in contention for a Libertadores spot, showing solid home performances. Bahia is in good form in Serie A, coming off a strong string of results and a notable away win. Flamengo averages 2.0 goals per match at home, Bahia averages 1.0 on the road.
Flamengo dominates the recent head-to-head, winning 15 of the last 23 meetings, with 4 draws and 4 Bahia wins. Last 5 meetings show Flamengo with 2 wins, 2 draws, Bahia with 1 win. Flamengo averages 2.0 goals per match, Bahia 1.1. In the Brasileirao, H2H record is 14-4-4 (Flamengo wins, draws, losses) vs. Bahia's 4-14-4.
No major injuries reported for either side as per latest updates.
Flamengo enjoys a strong home crowd, potential for weather impact (Rio is rainy season, but stadium has cover). Bahia may have some travel fatigue.
Both teams highly motivated for Libertadores qualification. Flamengo has extra incentive to secure a top-4 spot at home.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Flamengo: -250, Draw: +370, Bahia: +725
Flamengo win
★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread
Flamengo -1.25 (-112), Bahia +1.25 (-108)
Flamengo covers
★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under
Over 2.5: -110, Under 2.5: -110
Under 2.5 goals
★★★☆☆ 53%
Top EV Betting Odds
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Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Flamengo -12%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 2.5 1%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Flamengo is favored to win at home based on head-to-head dominance and superior goal-scoring statistics, but Bahia's recent form and defensive solidity suggest a lower scoring match than the average Flamengo fixture.
Location: Not explicitly stated in available data, but likely Arena Fonte Nova (Salvador, Brazil) based on Bahia's home matches[1][4]
Game Overview
Critical Copa Libertadores group stage match with Bahia seeking to build on recent momentum, having beaten both Nacional (COL)[2] and Nacional (URY)[3][5] in previous rounds. Nacional de Montevideo faces pressure to rebound after a 0-1 home loss to Bahia in April[3][5].
Key Factors to Consider
Bahia demonstrated effective counter-pressing and set-piece dominance (10 corners) against Nacional (COL)[2], while Nacional (URY) struggled with ball retention and defensive structure in their previous meeting[3][5].
Recent encounter on 9 April 2025 saw Bahia win 1-0 at Nacional (URY)[3][5].
No specific injury data available from provided sources.
Final will be held in Lima[4], but this match's location in Brazil's northeastern region could create travel fatigue for Nacional.
Bahia looking to solidify knockout stage position; Nacional needing points to avoid early elimination.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Bahia -180 | Draw 290 | Nacional +500
Bahia ML
★★★★☆ 70%
Spread
Bahia -1 (-110) | Nacional +1 (-120)
Nacional +1
★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under
Over 2.5 (-105) | Under 2.5 (-125)
Under 2.5
★★★☆☆ 65%
Top EV Betting Odds
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Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Bahia -2%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 2.5 8%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bahia to win through sustained pressure and counterattacking efficiency, though likely low-scoring given Nacional's defensive focus.
Location: Arena Fonte Nova (likely, based on home team status)
Game Overview
Clash between mid-table Bahia (7th) and Botafogo (8th) in Brazil's Serie A, with Bahia holding historical H2H dominance but Botafogo showing better recent form
Key Factors to Consider
Bahia: 2W-3D-1L last 6 (DDLWW); Botafogo: 2W-2D-2L (WLDLW). Botafogo better in last 5 matches (4W-1D-0L vs Bahia's 3W-0D-2L)
Bahia leads 12-8-6 in last 26 meetings (34-32 goals). Most common score: 2-1 (5x). Home advantage key: Bahia won 7/13 home H2H matches
No specific injury data available in current reports
Potential home advantage for Bahia at Arena Fonte Nova
Both teams within 1 point in standings, fighting for top half positioning
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Bahia: +125, Draw: +240, Botafogo: +225
Bahia win
★★★☆☆ 55%
Spread
Bahia -0.25 (-110), Botafogo +25 (-110)
Bahia cover -0.25 spread
★★★☆☆ 52%
Over/under
Over 2.25 (-115), Under 2.25 (-105)
Under 2.25 goals
★★★☆☆ 60%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Bahia 1%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 2.25 17%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Narrow home victory favored due to historical edge and home advantage, though Botafogo's superior recent form suggests potential upset