Match Analysis: Azat Maksum vs Mitch Raposo – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-25
• Time: 2:35 PM UTC
• Location: Abu Dhabi

Game Overview

Flyweight bout at UFC 321 featuring Azat Maksum as a sizable betting favorite over Mitch Raposo, who is still seeking his first UFC win after a recent loss by split decision to Su Muadaerji at UFC 314[1]. Maksum’s market-implied win probability is significantly higher, and the under/over set at 2.5 rounds suggests the books expect a decision.

Key Factors to Consider

• Maksum shows strong recent form with a dominant betting profile (77.7% implied probability), while Raposo remains unproven in the UFC, having lost his debut in a close split decision[1].
• No prior head-to-head history.
• No significant injury news reported for either fighter.
• Fight takes place in Abu Dhabi, which is neutral territory. No major external factors identified.
• Maksum should be motivated to extend his strong debut performance, while Raposo is desperate for a UFC win to avoid potential roster cuts[1].

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Azat Maksum -425, Mitch Raposo +330[1]	Azat Maksum wins	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Azat Maksum -5.5 -120, Mitch Raposo +5.5 -110	Azat Maksum -5.5	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 2.5 -180, Under 2.5 +140	Over 2.5	★★★★☆ 80%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Azat Maksum -4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 1%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Azat Maksum is expected to win dominantly, most likely by decision, though a late finish is plausible. Raposo’s path to victory is narrow and would require a major upset.

Predicted Score: Azat Maksum by Unanimous Decision (30–27)

Match Analysis: Tagir Ulanbekov vs Azat Maksum – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-21
• Time: 4:30 PM UTC
• Location: Baku Crystal Hall, Baku, Azerbaijan

Game Overview

The flyweight bout between Tagir Ulanbekov and Azat Maksum at UFC Baku features two highly skilled southpaw fighters evenly matched in height and weight. Ulanbekov holds a professional record of 16-2 and boasts superior significant strike accuracy and defense compared to Maksum, who has a 15-1 record but recently lost via unanimous decision. Both fighters have solid grappling skills, though Ulanbekov's experience against higher-caliber opponents and his ability to limit significant strikes taken stand out.

Key Factors to Consider

• Ulanbekov connects on 3.13 significant strikes per minute with 47% accuracy and defends 49% of opponent strikes, while Maksum connects on 2.80 strikes per minute at 23% accuracy and defends 55%. Ulanbekov's higher striking efficiency and lower damage intake rate give him an edge.
• No previous head-to-head bouts recorded between Ulanbekov and Maksum, making this their first competitive matchup at UFC Baku.
• No disclosed injuries reported for either fighter ahead of the bout.
• The fight takes place in Baku, Azerbaijan, Maksum's home region (Kazakhstan is nearby), potentially giving a slight crowd support advantage to Maksum. Ulanbekov, a Russian fighter, will rely on experience and composure in this environment.
• Ulanbekov aims to add a win to his strong career at age 33, maintaining his top contender status. Maksum, coming off a recent loss, has motivation to rebound and prove himself against a veteran opponent.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Tagir Ulanbekov: -450, Azat Maksum: 350	Tagir Ulanbekov	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Tagir Ulanbekov -1.5: -300, Azat Maksum +1.5: +240	Tagir Ulanbekov -1.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -225, Under 2.5 rounds: +185	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Tagir Ulanbekov -14%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 -2%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at -2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Tagir Ulanbekov is favored to win due to higher striking accuracy, better defense, and experience edge. The fight is expected to go to a decision with Ulanbekov controlling the pace and minimizing damage.

Predicted Score: Ulanbekov wins by unanimous decision, 29-28 across the judges