Match Analysis: NAC Breda vs AZ Alkmaar – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-31
- Time: 2:45 PM UTC
- Location: Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda, Netherlands
Game Overview
NAC Breda hosts AZ Alkmaar in the Dutch Eredivisie at Rat Verlegh Stadion. The match features NAC Breda, traditionally the underdogs, against a stronger AZ Alkmaar side. Past meetings show AZ's dominance but recent results indicate NAC's improving competitiveness.
Key Factors to Consider
- NAC Breda is currently struggling in league standings compared to AZ Alkmaar, who have been performing consistently better. However, NAC Breda recently ended a seven-game losing streak against AZ in April 2025 with a 1-1 draw, signaling tactical improvements and resilience.
- Historically, AZ Alkmaar has dominated the fixture with NAC Breda suffering many defeats. The last encounter ended in a 1-1 draw in April 2025 at Alkmaar, which was notable for breaking NAC's losing streak against AZ.
- No specific injury data is available from provided sources, indicating no major known injuries affecting either side for this match.
- The match is played at NAC Breda's home ground giving them home advantage. Weather or other external disruptions have not been reported.
- AZ Alkmaar are likely motivated to maintain their strong league position early in the season, whereas NAC Breda will be motivated to secure points at home to improve their standing and morale.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | AZ Alkmaar: -181, NAC Breda: 413, Draw: 352 | AZ Alkmaar win | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | AZ Alkmaar: -1 -115, NAC Breda: 1 -112 | AZ Alkmaar -1 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over: 3 -115, Under: 3 -113 | Under 3 goals | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | AZ Alkmaar 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 3 13% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 3 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
AZ Alkmaar are favored to win given their stronger form and superior historical record, but NAC Breda's home advantage and recent competitive progress suggest a closely contested match, potentially ending in a narrow AZ Alkmaar victory or draw.
Predicted Score: AZ Alkmaar 2 – 1 NAC Breda