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Match Analysis: James Hendin vs Ayton De Paepe – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-20
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: Festhalle, Frankfurt, Germany
Game Overview
This featherweight main card fight at OKTAGON 76 features English-German fighter James Hendin facing Belgian Ayton De Paepe. Hendin is known for his grappling-heavy style and finishing ability with 6 KOs in a 9-2 career, recently dominating his OKTAGON debut. De Paepe is a rising prospect with slight physical reach advantage. The bout promises a technical striking versus grappling contest.
Key Factors to Consider
- James Hendin holds a stronger record (9-2) with experience in Cage Warriors and recent wins via decision and TKO. He has proven ability to maintain control and secure victory over multiple rounds. Ayton De Paepe, while less accomplished, has shown resilience and technical striking but lacks Hendin's finishing consistency.
- This is their first meeting with no previous direct competition history, so no head-to-head data is available.
- No reported injuries impacting either fighter leading into the bout, both appear in peak condition.
- The fight is held in Frankfurt, Germany, Hendin's home country, which could provide slight psychological advantage and crowd support. No other external factors such as extreme weather or travel issues reported.
- Hendin is motivated to solidify his status in OKTAGON featherweight rankings after a strong debut. De Paepe aims to prove himself against a top contender to advance his career.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | James Hendin: -180, Ayton De Paepe: +145, Draw: +2500 | James Hendin | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | James Hendin -1.5 rounds: -130, Ayton De Paepe +1.5 rounds: +110 | James Hendin -1.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: -110, Under 2.5 rounds: -110 | Over 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Home 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
James Hendin is favored to win by unanimous decision, relying on his grappling control and endurance to nullify De Paepe's striking. A late round finish is possible but less likely given De Paepe's durability.
Predicted Score: James Hendin wins by unanimous decision with scores 29-28, 29-28, 29-28