Match Analysis: Dolphins vs Sydney Roosters – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-09
• Time: 7:30 AM UTC
• Location: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

Game Overview

The Dolphins host the Sydney Roosters in a highly anticipated NRL Round 23 clash at Suncorp Stadium. Both teams show strong attacking capabilities, with the Dolphins enjoying home advantage and recent momentum, while the Roosters remain battle-tested and favored by bookmakers. The match is expected to be closely contested with a relatively high scoring outcome.

Key Factors to Consider

• The Dolphins are currently in strong form, playing well at home with attacking momentum, whereas the Roosters exhibit solid but inconsistent away performances. Recent data suggest a tight match with both teams capable of scoring heavily.
• Limited history between the two franchises, but recent matches indicate tight contests. The Dolphins won a high-scoring meeting earlier this season at Suncorp Stadium 36-26. Both teams have roughly equal power rankings around 5.5 and 5.8, signaling balanced competition.
• No significant injury reports impacting starting lineups have been noted for either side, suggesting strongest teams available.
• Home crowd support strongly favors the Dolphins at Suncorp Stadium. The Roosters face the challenge of travel and playing away, which has historically affected their performance.
• Dolphins are motivated by continuing their winning streak and maintaining home dominance late in the season. The Roosters seek consistency and value this game as pivotal to sustaining finals aspirations.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Dolphins +102, Sydney Roosters -121, Draw +2000	Sydney Roosters	★★★☆☆ 62%
Spread	Dolphins +1.5 (-115), Sydney Roosters -1.5 (-115)	Sydney Roosters -1.5	★★★☆☆ 58%
Over/under	Over 48.5 (-115), Under 48.5 (-115)	Over 48.5	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Sydney Roosters 10%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 48.5 27%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 48.5 at 27% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 31.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Sydney Roosters moneyline win

Predicted Score: Sydney Roosters 28, Dolphins 24

Match Analysis: St George Illawarra Dragons vs Cronulla Sutherland Sharks – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-09
• Time: 5:00 AM UTC
• Location: Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, Sydney

Game Overview

A tight NRL derby between southern Sydney rivals with near parity in recent form and performance metrics, expected to be a close, low-scoring contest reflective of derby intensity.

Key Factors to Consider

• Both teams exhibit strong defense and balanced attack; Sharks have marginally better recent form with a 70-77% win probability in modeling but Dragons build momentum approaching this match.
• Virtually even split in recent derby matchups; no dominant side with equal power rankings and similar scoring and defensive statistics.
• No major injury news publicly available indicating significant absences for either side; squads appear near full-strength.
• Dragons at home in an intense derby atmosphere at Jubilee Stadium which may slightly enhance their performance; Sharks have strong away record but face hostile environment.
• Sharks highly motivated aiming for finals push; Dragons motivated by home ground pride and derby rivalry making this a high-intensity matchup.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Cronulla Sharks: -205, St George Illawarra Dragons: 172, Draw: 2200	Cronulla Sharks	★★★★☆ 70%
Spread	Cronulla Sharks -7.5: -115, St George Illawarra Dragons +7.5: -115	Cronulla Sharks -7.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 46.5: -115, Under 46.5: -115	Under 46.5	★★★☆☆ 65%

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Cronulla Sutherland Sharks 1096%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 46.5 12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Cronulla Sutherland Sharks at 1096% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 49.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Moneyline prediction favors Cronulla Sharks to win, but the market undervalues Dragons' chance suggesting potential value on Dragons for spread and moneyline. Spread predicted to favor Sharks covering -7.5 given their superior form with moderate confidence. Total points expected under 46.5 due to derby intensity limiting scoring.

Predicted Score: Cronulla Sharks 22 – St George Illawarra Dragons 15

Match Analysis: Eduard Kexel vs Josef Stummer – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-09
• Time: 4:00 AM UTC
• Location: Warsaw, Poland (KSW 109)

Game Overview

Eduard Kexel and Josef Stummer face off in a competitive KSW lightweight bout with Kexel as the favorite based on odds and recent activity. Both fighters come motivated to solidify their standing in the division.

Key Factors to Consider

• Eduard Kexel shows stronger recent form with multiple wins in the KSW promotion, demonstrating sharp striking and solid grappling. Josef Stummer has been active but with mixed results, struggling against top-tier opponents.
• No documented prior head-to-head bouts between Kexel and Stummer, limiting direct matchup insights.
• No significant recent injuries reported for either fighter, both appear healthy and prepared.
• Fight scheduled in Warsaw, Kexel benefits from stronger local support and familiarity. No travel or external disruptions reported.
• Kexel aims to continue upward momentum in KSW. Stummer is motivated to upset the favorite and climb the ranks, but less consistent momentum may affect confidence.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Eduard Kexel -280, Josef Stummer +185	Eduard Kexel	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Eduard Kexel -1.5 rounds +150, Josef Stummer +1.5 rounds -180	Eduard Kexel -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds -120, Under 2.5 rounds +100	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Eduard Kexel 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Eduard Kexel at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Eduard Kexel to win via decision

Predicted Score: Eduard Kexel wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Bartosz Szewczyk vs Dawid Kasperski – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-09
• Time: 4:00 AM UTC
• Location: Warsaw, Poland (KSW 109)

Game Overview

A high-stakes light heavyweight bout between Bartosz Szewczyk and Dawid Kasperski at KSW 109 in Warsaw, featuring two powerful fighters with contrasting attributes. Szewczyk is favored heavily on the moneyline, reflecting his recent form and home advantage.

Key Factors to Consider

• Bartosz Szewczyk has demonstrated strong recent form with consistent finishes, whereas Dawid Kasperski, though powerful, has shown less consistency and has suffered a few decision losses in his last outings.
• No previous direct clashes between Szewczyk and Kasperski are recorded, making tactical adaptation a key factor in this matchup.
• No known injuries hampering either fighter according to latest reports; both are expected to compete at full strength.
• The fight takes place in Warsaw, giving Szewczyk a clear home crowd and logistical advantage. Both fighters possess substantial motivation to claim dominance in the KSW light heavyweight division.
• Szewczyk appears highly motivated to assert his status as top contender on home soil, while Kasperski is keen to upset the home favorite and gain momentum in his career.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: -270, away: 180	Bartosz Szewczyk	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	home: -1.5 (-150), away: +1.5 (+130)	Bartosz Szewczyk -1.5	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	over_2.5_rounds: -110, under_2.5_rounds: -110	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 62%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Bartosz Szewczyk -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Bartosz Szewczyk at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Bartosz Szewczyk to win by moneyline

Predicted Score: Bartosz Szewczyk wins by TKO in Round 2

Match Analysis: Michal Gniady vs Viktor Cervinsky – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-09
• Time: 4:00 AM UTC
• Location: KSW Event

Game Overview

Michal Gniady faces Viktor Cervinsky in a KSW mixed martial arts bout. Viktor is favored slightly by bookmakers but the matchup is highly competitive with closely matched recent odds and performances.

Key Factors to Consider

• Both fighters show mixed recent form with slight edge toward Viktor Cervinsky based on consistent performances and slight odds favoritism. Gniady's recent bouts have seen variable outcomes with some underdog wins.
• No direct H2H matchup data available indicating a previous encounter, suggesting this is their first professional meeting.
• No public injury reports have been noted for either fighter leading into this bout.
• Fight scheduled under KSW promotion with typical preparation conditions; venue and travel should not disproportionately affect either fighter given timing and location.
• Both fighters are motivated to establish or maintain status in KSW rankings, with Viktor possibly having a slight motivational edge given slight road-fighter underdog status in previous fights.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Michal Gniady: +100, Viktor Cervinsky: -140	Viktor Cervinsky	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	As no public standard MMA spread odds exist, spread analysis is estimated. Assuming a -1.5 round spread at roughly -120 typical odds.	Viktor Cervinsky -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Estimated over/under at 2.5 rounds with typical odds near -110	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Viktor Cervinsky -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Viktor Cervinsky at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Viktor Cervinsky to win by moneyline

Predicted Score: Viktor Cervinsky wins via decision after 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Michal Michalski vs Andi Vrtacic – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-09
• Time: 4:00 AM UTC
• Location: ATM Studio, Warsaw, Poland

Game Overview

Michal Michalski and Andi Vrtačić face off in a 3-round MMA bout at KSW 109. Michalski enters with a 12-5 record and recent strong form, while Vrtačić has a 6-2 record and is returning from a break, marking this as a key matchup on the card.

Key Factors to Consider

• Michalski shows consistent activity and solid recent performance, suggesting better fight rhythm. Vrtačić, while talented, has less recent fight volume and is coming off a hiatus which may impact sharpness.
• No prior head-to-head bouts between the two fighters, so no direct comparative data exists.
• No reported injuries on either fighter heading into the bout, indicating both are at full health.
• The fight takes place in Warsaw, Poland, potentially giving Michalski a slight home crowd advantage.
• Vrtačić appears motivated to return strongly to the spotlight after a break, while Michalski seeks to maintain momentum and improve his standing in KSW.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Michal Michalski: -135, Andi Vrtacic: -105	Michal Michalski	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Michal Michalski -1.5 rounds: +120, Andi Vrtacic +1.5 rounds: -140	Michal Michalski -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -110, Under 2.5 rounds: -110	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 62%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Michal Michalski 1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Michal Michalski at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Michal Michalski to win on the moneyline

Predicted Score: Michal Michalski wins via decision or late stoppage in round 3

Match Analysis: Piotr Kuberski vs Radoslaw Paczuski – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-09
• Time: 4:00 AM UTC
• Location: KSW 109 event venue (unspecified)

Game Overview

Middleweight title bout between Piotr Kuberski, a highly experienced fighter with a 16-1 record, and Radosław Paczuski, the current champion holding an 8-2 record.

Key Factors to Consider

• Kuberski shows dominant recent form with 16 wins and only 1 loss, demonstrating strong finishing ability; Paczuski, while champion, has a lesser experience base with 8-2 and less frequent fights recently.
• No prior direct matchups found between Kuberski and Paczuski, making this a first-time encounter.
• No reported injuries for either fighter in available data.
• Fight held at KSW 109 in Poland, both fighters Polish which neutralizes home advantage; main event status adds motivation to both.
• Title and legacy at stake; Kuberski motivated to capture the belt and avenge his single loss, Paczuski defending title with less fight volume but champion mentality.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Piotr Kuberski -350, Radoslaw Paczuski +225	Piotr Kuberski	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Not explicitly provided; inferred typical MMA rounds spread -1.5 or +1.5 rounds	Piotr Kuberski -1.5 rounds (to win convincingly)	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Not explicitly provided; standard MMA over/under at 2.5 rounds	Under 2.5 rounds (fight ends before the third round)	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Piotr Kuberski -4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Piotr Kuberski at -4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Piotr Kuberski to win by moneyline

Predicted Score: Piotr Kuberski wins by TKO/Submission in round 2

Match Analysis: Alain Van De Merckt vs Borys Dzikowski – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-09
• Time: 4:00 AM UTC
• Location: KSW 109, Warsaw

Game Overview

This KSW 109 lightweight bout features Alain Van De Merckt (8-1) vs Borys Dzikowski (4-2). Van De Merckt is undefeated in recent fights, with a high finishing rate via submissions and knockouts. Dzikowski carries a solid but less dominant 4-2 record, with more KO/TKO victories than submissions. Both fighters are evenly matched on weight (~84 kg) and height (Van De Merckt slightly shorter).

Key Factors to Consider

• Van De Merckt is on a strong winning streak with an 8-1 record, showing versatility in finishing fights (3 KO/TKO, 5 submissions). Dzikowski has a respectable 4-2 record with the majority of wins by KO/TKO but no submission wins, suggesting less grappling dominance.
• No previous matchup between the two fighters has been recorded, so no direct H2H history is available.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to the fight.
• Fight takes place at KSW 109 in Warsaw, Dzikowski's home country Poland, which may provide slight crowd support. Van De Merckt has international experience but may be facing some crowd adversity.
• Van De Merckt aims to maintain his near-perfect record in a higher profile organization, likely highly motivated. Dzikowski, with two recent losses and fighting at home, will seek to rebound decisively for standing in KSW.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Alain Van De Merckt: -200, Borys Dzikowski: +150	Alain Van De Merckt	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Alain Van De Merckt -1.5 rounds: -120, Borys Dzikowski +1.5 rounds: +100	Alain Van De Merckt -1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -110, Under 2.5 rounds: -110	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Alain Van De Merckt -4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Alain Van De Merckt at -4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Alain Van De Merckt to win by submission

Predicted Score: Alain Van De Merckt wins by submission in round 2