Match Analysis: Santos vs Juventude – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-04
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio Urbano Caldeira (Vila Belmiro), Santos
Game Overview
This Brazil Campeonato match features Santos hosting Juventude. Santos generally have a stronger record in head-to-head meetings and play at home, but their recent form is inconsistent. Juventude struggle for away wins and haven't won in their last five Serie A matches.
Key Factors to Consider
- Santos show mixed recent performances with 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and conceded per match. Juventude have better recent form with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss but score fewer goals (0.6 per match) and concede more (1.8).
- Santos have won 7 of 16 encounters against Juventude, who have won 4, with 5 draws. Average goals per match in this fixture is about 2.8. Santos have historically performed better at home with 8 wins from 19 matches at their stadium versus Juventude's single away win in 19 attempts.
- No specific injury data available in the search results for this match. Any impact from injuries is unknown and should be monitored closer to kickoff.
- The match is played at Santos’ home venue, providing them a home advantage. No significant external disruptions reported so far.
- Santos likely motivated to improve home form and capitalize on historical dominance over Juventude. Juventude will aim to end their winless streak away and secure points to lift their league position.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Juventude: 6.5, Santos: -2.35, Draw: 3.6 | Santos win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Juventude: 1.25, Santos: -1.25 | Santos -1.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: 2.5, Under: 2.5 | Under 2.5 goals | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Santos -14% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 4% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 4.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Santos are predicted to win the match by a moderately confident margin given historical dominance, home advantage, and their superior head-to-head record despite recent form challenges.
Predicted Score: 2-0