Match Analysis: Santos vs Juventude – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-04
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: MorumBIS (Home of Santos)
Game Overview
This match is round 18 of the Brazilian Serie A with Santos hosting Juventude. Santos have a better historical head-to-head record and home advantage but have been inconsistent recently, facing a motivated Juventude side seeking points away.
Key Factors to Consider
- Santos average 1.18 goals per match at home this season, but have lost their last 3 matches with only 2 goals scored in last 5. Juventude average 1.04 goals per match away this season and have won 3 of last 5 overall.
- In 16 meetings, Santos lead with 7 wins, Juventude 4 wins, 5 draws. Last 4 matches are evenly contested. Previous season showed over 2.5 goals in 37.5% of matches, with an average 2.81 goals per game.
- No specific injury data available from the search, but Santos goalkeeper Gabriel Brazao is ranked 3rd in saves per match, suggesting dependable goalkeeping.
- Match played at Santos’ home venue, with an 85.71% rate of home games going over 1.5 goals, indicating home scoring potential.
- Santos fighting to improve form after losses. Juventude motivated to gain points away to climb table, having better recent form in away matches.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Santos -235, Draw 360, Juventude 650 | Santos | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Spread | Santos -1.25 -102, Juventude +1.25 -118 | Santos -1.25 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 -108, Under 2.5 -112 | Over 2.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Santos -12% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 6% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Santos to win the moneyline, Santos -1.25 on spread, Over 2.5 goals
Predicted Score: 2-1