Match Analysis: Damon Wilson vs Márcio Barbosa – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-27
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Dana White's Contender Series

Game Overview

Featherweight division main card fight between Damon Wilson (9-2) and Márcio Barbosa (16-2) on Dana White's Contender Series.

Key Factors to Consider

• Márcio Barbosa holds a more extensive record with 16 wins and 2 losses compared to Damon Wilson's 9 wins and 2 losses. Barbosa has displayed consistent form in recent fights with odds movement favoring him as a clear favorite; Wilson is seen as an underdog but has competitive wins.
• No direct head-to-head data available; this is their first meeting.
• No reported injuries for either fighter going into this matchup.
• The fight is part of a high-stakes Dana White's Contender Series event, increasing motivation especially for Wilson who is the underdog and looking to prove himself for UFC recognition.
• Wilson likely has increased motivation as the underdog looking to capitalize on this showcase; Barbosa as the seasoned favorite carries pressure to deliver and maintain standing.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Damon Wilson: +265, Márcio Barbosa: -340	Márcio Barbosa	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Márcio Barbosa -1.5 rounds: -120, Damon Wilson +1.5 rounds: +100	Márcio Barbosa -1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds: +155, Under 1.5 rounds: -185	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Márcio Barbosa -11%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 -4%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at -4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Márcio Barbosa to win via moneyline and cover the spread, with the fight going under 1.5 rounds.

Predicted Score: Márcio Barbosa wins by TKO in round 1

Match Analysis: Darion Abbey vs Donte Johnson – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-27
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Dana White's Contender Series, Las Vegas, Nevada

Game Overview

This matchup features Darion Abbey, a 7-4 heavyweight with significant size and reach advantages, against undefeated 5-0 light heavyweight Donte Johnson. Abbey is the older, heavier fighter, while Johnson is younger and undefeated, indicating rising talent and momentum.

Key Factors to Consider

• Darion Abbey has a solid but mixed record of 7-4, showing vulnerability but experience in heavyweight fights. Donte Johnson is undefeated at 5-0, with strong recent form and momentum.
• No direct previous matchups between Abbey and Johnson exist, meaning preparation and adaptation on fight night will be crucial.
• No reported injuries for either fighter, indicating both are in normal training condition.
• The fight takes place at a high-stakes Dana White Contender Series event, increasing motivation for Johnson, the undefeated prospect, eager to prove himself with a UFC contract.
• Donte Johnson's undefeated status and younger age create a strong motivation to maintain the streak and advance his career. Abbey, with a more seasoned but less stellar record, is motivated to upset and return to prominence.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Darion Abbey: +275, Donte Johnson: -350	Donte Johnson	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Donte Johnson -1.5: -150, Darion Abbey +1.5: +130	Donte Johnson -1.5	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds: +190, Under 1.5 rounds: -230	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Donte Johnson -10%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 -14%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Donte Johnson at -10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Donte Johnson via decision

Predicted Score: Donte Johnson wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Trent Miller vs Ryan Gandra – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-26
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Dana White's Contender Series

Game Overview

Middleweight MMA matchup between Trent Miller (8-2) and Ryan Gandra (7-1) on Dana White's Contender Series.

Key Factors to Consider

• Ryan Gandra holds a strong 7-1 record with consistent recent performances; Trent Miller is 8-2, slightly more experienced but with two recent losses affecting momentum.
• No available direct head-to-head history between the two fighters.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to the bout.
• Fight taking place on a major platform, Dana White's Contender Series, likely increasing motivation for both fighters to impress for UFC contract opportunities.
• Both fighters highly motivated; Ryan Gandra has slightly better recent form suggesting a psychological edge, while Trent Miller may be under pressure to rebound from losses.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Ryan Gandra: -370, Trent Miller: +295	Ryan Gandra	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	+125 for Gandra -1.5 rounds	Ryan Gandra -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 1.5: +125, Under 1.5: -155	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Ryan Gandra -5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 15%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 23.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Ryan Gandra moneyline win, spread in favor of Gandra by at least 1.5 rounds, and under 1.5 rounds total.

Predicted Score: Ryan Gandra wins via decision or late stoppage in round 2

Match Analysis: Alik Lorenz vs Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-27
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Not Provided

Game Overview

Alik Lorenz faces Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev in a light heavyweight bout at the Dana White's Contender Series 2025. Lorenz is known for his aggressive style and powerful strikes, while Yakhyaev is the current Ares FC champion with a balanced skillset.

Key Factors to Consider

• Yakhyaev is the more well-rounded fighter, having won via decision, KO/TKO, and submission. Lorenz relies heavily on his power and has a 100% finish rate.
• No previous head-to-head matchup.
• No injuries reported.
• Motivation is high for both fighters looking to secure a UFC contract.
• Both fighters are highly motivated to secure a UFC contract.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Yakhyaev: -900, Lorenz: 600	Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev	★★★★☆ 82%
Over/under	Over 1.5: 190, Under 1.5: -240	Under 1.5	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev -11%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 -1%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev is favored to win due to his technical skills and recent title fights experience.

Predicted Score: Yakhyaev by decision or early stoppage

Match Analysis: Cristian Pérez vs Manoel Sousa – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-27
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

Game Overview

Cristian Pérez, an exceptional grappler relying on ground control and submissions, faces Manoel Sousa, a powerful striker known for his knockout ability. The matchup presents a classic grappler versus striker dynamic, making the fight outcome uncertain but strategically interesting for betting.

Key Factors to Consider

• Pérez holds a record of 13-1, demonstrating consistent grappling dominance and control. Sousa has an 11-1 record showcasing strong striking and finishing power. Both fighters have shown recent strong form in their respective specialties.
• No prior head-to-head fights exist between Pérez and Sousa, adding an element of unpredictability.
• No reported current injuries for either fighter leading into the matchup, indicating both should be at full strength.
• The bout takes place at Contender Series 2025 Week 3 in Las Vegas, a high-profile environment where both fighters are motivated to impress Dana White and advance their careers.
• Both fighters appear highly motivated; Pérez aims to demonstrate grappling supremacy to secure UFC opportunities, while Sousa seeks to capitalize on his striking power to claim a highlight finish. Motivation is balanced.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Cristian Pérez: +240, Manoel Sousa: -300	Manoel Sousa	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Sousa -1.5: -150, Pérez +1.5: +130	Sousa -1.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 1.5: -215, Under 1.5: +175	Over 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Manoel Sousa -11%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 -15%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Manoel Sousa at -11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Manoel Sousa is favored to win via striking prowess, but Cristian Pérez's grappling threat makes the fight competitive. Given odds and styles, betting on Sousa moneyline offers the highest expected value. Spread favors Sousa to win by decision or finish narrowly. Over 1.5 rounds is favored given fight duration expectations.

Predicted Score: Manoel Sousa wins via decision or late finish in round 2 or 3