Match Analysis: Alik Lorenz vs Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-26
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Dana White's Contender Series, Location TBD

Game Overview

Light heavyweight matchup between Alik Lorenz (6-1) and Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev (6-0) scheduled for Dana White's Contender Series. Lorenz is a fast starter with heavy power and a 100% finish rate but has a shaky chin and weak takedown defense. Yakhyaev is the current Ares FC champion with a multifaceted finish record including decisions, KOs, and submissions, known for his strong wrestling and ground game.

Key Factors to Consider

• Lorenz is 4-0 under the Cage Warriors banner and has a fast, aggressive style relying on power and physicality to break opponents down, while Yakhyaev holds a perfect 6-0 record, with a balanced skill set and recent experience in title fights showing both striking power and elite wrestling.
• No prior meetings between Lorenz and Yakhyaev; both have combined nine first-round finishes but Lorenz has never gone to decision, whereas Yakhyaev has wins by all methods including decisions.
• No reported injuries affecting either fighter prior to the match.
• Fight takes place on Dana White’s Contender Series, likely increasing pressure on both as they seek UFC contracts; Yakhyaev represents MMA Nurnberg camp, which is less known but producing a top prospect.
• High motivation on both sides with Yakhyaev aiming to continue his winning streak and secure UFC contract after recent title bouts, and Lorenz on a quest to rebound from an early career loss and maintain his 100% finish rate.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev: -900, Alik Lorenz: 600	Pick Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Yakhyaev -1.5: -120, Lorenz +1.5: +100	Yakhyaev to cover -1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	Over 1.5: 190, Under 1.5: -240	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev -11%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 -1%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev is favored to win due to superior technical skills, versatility, and wrestling dominance. Lorenz’s power and fast start may make the fight competitive but Yakhyaev's grappling and ability to finish by multiple methods gives him an edge.

Predicted Score: Yakhyaev wins by submission or ground-and-pound TKO in round 2

Match Analysis: Cristian Pérez vs Manoel Sousa – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-26
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Dana White's Contender Series, Season 9, Week 3 (venue not explicitly stated)

Game Overview

Cristian Pérez (13-1) and Manoel Sousa (12-1) face off in a highly anticipated lightweight bout on Dana White's Contender Series. Pérez is known for his dynamic striking and grappling versatility but has shown inconsistencies and cardio issues. Sousa is a powerful, physically imposing fighter with solid defensive skills and significant finishing ability, including multiple second-round finishes.

Key Factors to Consider

• Pérez is a fast starter with good submissions and striking variety but is prone to defensive lapses, exposed chin, and poor takedown defense. Sousa has more experience against high-level competition (LFA, Bellator, PFL) and is known for his pressure, knockout power, and grappling control, especially in grappling exchanges.
• This is their first meeting in MMA. Sousa holds a slight edge overall due to experience and fight style, which counters Pérez's versatility with better positional control and power.
• No reported injuries for either fighter going into the match.
• Pérez has not fought in almost two years and is coming off a loss in Karate Combat. Sousa is the fresher fighter with continuous MMA activity and experience against UFC-level opponents. Both fighters are highly motivated for UFC contracts.
• Both fighters seek to secure a UFC contract, making this a high-stakes, highly motivated matchup. Sousa’s more consistent recent performances and power give him a psychological edge.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Cristian Perez: +240, Manoel Sousa: -300	Manoel Sousa	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	Over 1.5: -215, Under 1.5: +175	Over 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Manoel Sousa -8%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 -12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Manoel Sousa at -8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Manoel Sousa is favored to win by TKO in round three due to superior power, control in grappling exchanges, and defensive soundness. Pérez's versatility and explosiveness make it potentially competitive but Sousa’s strengths are expected to prevail.

Predicted Score: Sousa wins by TKO Round 3

Match Analysis: Damon Wilson vs Márcio Barbosa – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-27
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Dana White's Contender Series

Game Overview

This is a featherweight main card MMA bout between Damon Wilson and Márcio Barbosa at Dana White's Contender Series. Barbosa is a powerful knockout artist with a record of 16-2, known for finishing most of his fights in the first round. Wilson, aged 32, with a 9-2 record, is a technically skilled striker with strong wrestling credentials and a three-fight winning streak under Cage Warriors. Barbosa is making his US debut, and the matchup is viewed as a high-stakes, exciting contest with contrasting fighting styles.

Key Factors to Consider

• Barbosa has an explosive finish rate with 15 of his 16 wins coming by knockout, 13 in the first round. Wilson is a veteran known for technical striking, use of feints, and solid wrestling, but has some defensive weaknesses and cardio concerns.
• No recorded prior matches between Damon Wilson and Márcio Barbosa, making this their first encounter.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading into this bout.
• Barbosa fights in his US debut, which can impact performance positively or negatively. The fight's placement on Dana White's Contender Series increases pressure and motivation.
• Both fighters are motivated to secure a UFC contract. Barbosa’s recent knockout streak boosts confidence, while Wilson aims to continue his winning momentum and improve his stock.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Damon Wilson: 265, Márcio Barbosa: -340	Márcio Barbosa	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Damon Wilson: +1.5, Márcio Barbosa: -1.5	Márcio Barbosa -1.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 1.5: 155, Under 1.5: -185	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 72%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Márcio Barbosa -11%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 -4%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at -4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Márcio Barbosa is likely to win by early knockout due to his superior power and finishing ability. Damon Wilson’s technical skills and experience could extend the fight, but Barbosa’s power presents a significant threat.

Predicted Score: Márcio Barbosa wins by 1st round knockout

Match Analysis: Darion Abbey vs Donte Johnson – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-26
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: DWCS 2025: Week 3

Game Overview

The upcoming MMA bout features Darion Abbey (7-4) facing Donte Johnson (5-0) in a light-heavyweight contest at the DWCS 2025 Week 3 event. Abbey is the older, larger fighter with significant reach and knockout power, while Johnson remains undefeated with a perfect record, relying heavily on KO/TKO finishes.

Key Factors to Consider

• Abbey has a 7-4 record with 5 KO/TKO wins and 1 submission, showing a balanced fight style with finishing ability. Johnson holds an undefeated 5-0 record, all wins by KO/TKO, highlighting his striking potency but less experience against tough opponents.
• No recorded previous encounters between Darion Abbey and Donte Johnson. This will be their first meeting.
• No recent or reported injuries for either fighter have been disclosed prior to this bout.
• The fight takes place at DWCS 2025 Week 3, an important showcase event that can motivate both fighters to perform well and impress for higher-tier UFC opportunities.
• Johnson, being undefeated and younger, likely has strong motivation to maintain his perfect record and prove himself. Abbey aims to rebound and leverage his experience to claim victory and revitalize his career.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Darion Abbey: +275, Donte Johnson: -350	Donte Johnson	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	over_1.5: +190, under_1.5: -230	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Donte Johnson -9%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 -5%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at -5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Donte Johnson is favored to win due to his undefeated streak, superior odds, and momentum, but Darion Abbey's experience and physical advantages create a competitive matchup. A probable scenario is a KO/TKO finish favoring Johnson, though Abbey's endurance and reach could allow him to capitalize if the fight goes longer.

Predicted Score: Donte Johnson wins by KO/TKO in Round 1 or early Round 2

Match Analysis: Trent Miller vs Ryan Gandra – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-26
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Dana White's Contender Series 2025 Week 3 (Venue TBD)

Game Overview

The middleweight bout features Trent Miller (8-2) versus Ryan Gandra (7-1). Miller is stepping in on short notice and has a power-heavy, aggressive style with weaknesses in cardio, defense, and chin durability. Gandra, making his US debut, is more balanced with KO/TKO, submission, and decision wins and is considered more athletic and dynamic.

Key Factors to Consider

• Miller trains with the elite Xtreme Couture team, whereas Gandra's camp details are less highlighted but he has demonstrated versatility in finishes.
• No prior encounters between Miller and Gandra; this will be their first meeting.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading into this bout.
• Miller accepted the fight on short notice, potentially impacting his preparation and conditioning. Gandra is making his US debut, which can add motivation but also pressure.
• Gandra is highly motivated to impress in his US debut, while Miller seeks to capitalize despite short notice, relying on his power and aggression.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Ryan Gandra: -370, Trent Miller: 295	Ryan Gandra	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Ryan Gandra -1.5: -150, Trent Miller +1.5: 130	Ryan Gandra -1.5	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	Over 1.5: 125, Under 1.5: -155	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 80%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Ryan Gandra -11%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 7%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Ryan Gandra via first-round knockout, leveraging superior athleticism, conditioning, and striking precision, with a likely finish before Miller can capitalize on his power.

Predicted Score: Ryan Gandra wins by KO in Round 1