Match Analysis: Michel Pereira vs Kyle Daukaus – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-23
• Time: 8:25 AM UTC
• Location: To Be Announced (UFC Event)

Game Overview

Michel Pereira, an explosive and unpredictable striker, faces Kyle Daukaus, a grappling specialist with strong ground control and submission skills. The matchup is a classic striker versus grappler dynamic with Pereira favored but Daukaus posing a significant submission threat if he can implement his game plan.

Key Factors to Consider

• Pereira has demonstrated dynamic striking with knockout power and momentum in recent fights. Daukaus has a solid 11-4 record, excels in submissions (9 of 11 wins), and has shown patient wrestling to neutralize aggressive opponents.
• No previous direct matchups between Pereira and Daukaus, making tactical adaptation key.
• No reported injuries affecting either fighter going into the bout.
• Fight takes place in hostile territory favoring Pereira; crowd support may boost his confidence and aggression.
• Pereira aims to secure a high-profile finish to advance his UFC standing; Daukaus seeks to break through the division by overcoming a favored striker with his grappling approach.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Micah Pereira: -260, Kyle Daukaus: +220	Michel Pereira	★★★★☆ 77%
Spread	Michel Pereira -1.5: +150, Kyle Daukaus +1.5: -180	Michel Pereira -1.5	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds: -185, Under 1.5 rounds: +155	Over 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Michel Pereira 5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 -8%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Michel Pereira at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Michel Pereira to win via knockout or TKO

Predicted Score: Michel Pereira wins by KO/TKO in Round 2

Match Analysis: Yi Zha vs Westin Wilson – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-23
• Time: 8:00 AM UTC
• Location: UFC Fight Night, Shanghai

Game Overview

Yi Zha is an overwhelming favorite due to superior striking and home advantage against Westin Wilson, who is a grappler with recent knockout losses and is significantly older.

Key Factors to Consider

• Yi Zha has a strong recent form with dominant striking and finishes, evidenced by a record of 25-5, whereas Westin Wilson is 17-9 with vulnerabilities in recent KO stoppages.
• No direct H2H history available between Yi Zha and Westin Wilson, but stylistic matchup favors Yi Zha’s striking over Wilson’s grappling.
• No significant injury reports on either fighter; Wilson’s recent KO losses may hint at compromised durability.
• Yi Zha’s home country advantage in Shanghai, likely boosting motivation and crowd support; Wilson traveling to hostile territory.
• Yi Zha is motivated to solidify dominance and move up UFC rankings, while Wilson seeks an upset but faces a challenging matchup.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Yi Zha: -1200, Westin Wilson: +700	Yi Zha	★★★★☆ 82%
Spread	Yi Zha -1.5 rounds -300, Westin Wilson +1.5 rounds +240	Yi Zha -1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds +140, Under 1.5 rounds -170	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Yi Zha -7%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Yi Zha to win by decision

Predicted Score: Yi Zha wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Long Xiao vs Su Young You – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-23
• Time: 7:35 AM UTC
• Location: Shanghai Indoor Stadium, Xuhui District, China

Game Overview

This Bantamweight UFC Fight Night preliminary card features Long Xiao, a skilled striker and grappler with a 27-8 record aiming to rebound after a recent split decision loss, versus Su Young You, an undefeated UFC talent with a 15-3 record known for her grappling dominance and quick finishes. Su Young is the betting favorite given her flawless UFC debut streak and recent form.

Key Factors to Consider

• Su Young You is on an undefeated UFC streak since November 2024 with multiple first-round finishes, demonstrating superior grappling and agility. Long Xiao, while strong in striking and resilient, comes off a split decision loss in June and has fewer finishes recently.
• No direct previous fights documented between the two, making this a fresh tactical contest.
• No reported injuries for either fighter going into the bout, indicating both are at full capacity.
• Fight taking place in Shanghai Indoor Stadium, favoring Long Xiao geographically but with no notable home advantage impact reported.
• Long Xiao aims to rebound and restore momentum after his recent loss, while Su Young You looks to extend her undefeated stretch in the UFC, suggesting high motivation on both sides but stronger momentum on You’s side.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Long Xiao: +110, Su Young You: -130	Su Young You	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Su Young You -1.5 rounds: -140, Long Xiao +1.5 rounds: +120	Su Young You -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -300, Under 2.5 rounds: +240	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Su Young You -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 128%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 128% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 53.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Su Young You to win via moneyline

Predicted Score: Su Young You wins by submission or decision in 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Gold Coast Titans vs New Zealand Warriors – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-23
• Time: 7:30 AM UTC
• Location: Cbus Super Stadium

Game Overview

The Gold Coast Titans will host the New Zealand Warriors in Round 25 of the 2025 NRL season, with both teams keen to secure key competition points as the finals approach.

Key Factors to Consider

• The New Zealand Warriors have demonstrated stronger form recently, including a 62% win probability against the Titans based on extensive simulations. The Titans have had mixed results but recently secured a win over the Warriors in their previous meeting.
• Recent head-to-head data shows a competitive matchup, with the Titans winning the last meeting 24-16. However, over many simulations, the Warriors hold a historical advantage with better consistency.
• No critical injuries reported that would significantly weaken either side's core structure heading into this match.
• The game is played at the Titans' home ground, Cbus Super Stadium, which typically favors the home team. Weather and other conditions are expected to be neutral without impact.
• The Warriors are slightly more motivated given their recent form and desire to solidify finals positioning, while the Titans aim to defend their home ground and improve ladder position.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Gold Coast Titans +136, New Zealand Warriors -157, Draw +2100	New Zealand Warriors	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	Titans +3.5 -115, Warriors -3.5 -115	New Zealand Warriors -3.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 48.5 -108, Under 48.5 -118	Over 48.5	★★★☆☆ 58%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	New Zealand Warriors 3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 48.5 6%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 48.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

New Zealand Warriors to win outright on the moneyline, cover the -3.5 spread, and the total points to go over 48.5

Predicted Score: Warriors 26 – Titans 20

Match Analysis: Uran Satybaldiev vs Diyar Nurgozhay – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-23
• Time: 7:00 AM UTC
• Location: Shanghai Indoor Stadium, Xuhui District, Shanghai, China

Game Overview

Light heavyweight MMA bout between Uran Satybaldiev and Diyar Nurgozhay on UFC Fight Night preliminary card. Satybaldiev is a favorite for his striking and takedown defense, while Nurgozhay poses a threat with perfect takedown accuracy and a strong finishing rate.

Key Factors to Consider

• Satybaldiev comes in with superior recent form, showing consistent control and defense, whereas Nurgozhay has high finishing capability but is less consistent against strong strikers.
• No prior head-to-head fights available, requiring reliance on stylistic matchup and past performances.
• No significant injuries reported for either fighter leading into the bout.
• Fight taking place at a neutral site; both fighters are from Central Asia, minimizing travel disadvantage. Early morning time may slightly favor the more disciplined and conditioned athlete, Satybaldiev.
• Both fighters are motivated to establish dominance early on UFC Fight Night prelim card, but Satybaldiev's role as a favorite adds pressure and incentive to maintain form.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Uran Satybaldiev: -156, Diyar Nurgozhay: +136	Uran Satybaldiev	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	-163 for Uran Satybaldiev -1.5 rounds	Uran Satybaldiev -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5: -115, Under 2.5: -115	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Uran Satybaldiev -5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Uran Satybaldiev to win by decision

Predicted Score: Uran Satybaldiev wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Manly Warringah Sea Eagles vs Dolphins – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-23
• Time: 5:00 AM UTC
• Location: Lottoland

Game Overview

The Manly Warringah Sea Eagles, slight favorites at home against the Dolphins in NRL Round 25, face a competitive matchup with close odds. Both teams have shown resilience, but Manly's home advantage and recent form make this a tight contest.

Key Factors to Consider

• Manly holds a moderate edge with recent form showing a 55% chance of victory, supported by consistent offense and defensive solidity, while Dolphins have shown competitive spirit but are underdog on the road.
• Historically, Manly has held a slight advantage over Dolphins, particularly at home, as indicated by recent simulations showing the Sea Eagles favored by a small margin.
• No significant injuries reported for either side impacting key players; both teams expected near full strength.
• The match at Lottoland gives Manly a home crowd advantage; weather conditions expected to be neutral, not affecting game flow significantly.
• Both teams are motivated to secure points late in the season, with Manly slightly more driven to maintain playoff positioning.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Manly -113, Dolphins -106, Draw 1800	Manly Warringah Sea Eagles	★★★☆☆ 62%
Spread	Manly -1.5 -105, Dolphins +1.5 -125	Manly Warringah Sea Eagles -1.5	★★★☆☆ 58%
Over/under	Over 46.5 -145, Under 46.5 110	Under 46.5	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Manly Warringah Sea Eagles 7%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 46.5 26%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 46.5 at 26% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 23.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles to win on the moneyline and cover the -1.5 spread; the total score expected to stay under 46.5 points.

Predicted Score: Manly Warringah Sea Eagles 24 – Dolphins 20

Match Analysis: Yoelvis Gomez vs Edwine Humaine Jr – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-23
• Time: 2:00 AM UTC
• Location: TBD

Game Overview

Yoelvis Gomez enters as a heavy favorite against Edwine Humaine Jr, based on recent form, aggressive style, and an unbeaten record. Edwine is seen as an underdog with resilience and technical skills but facing long odds.

Key Factors to Consider

• Gomez's recent undefeated streak and aggressive fighting style contrast with Humaine Jr's resilience and underdog status, suggesting Gomez has the performance edge.
• No direct H2H data available, but Gomez’s record and odds suggest past dominance or superiority in competitive matchups.
• No reported injuries for either fighter, implying both are expected to compete at full strength.
• Potential impact from weigh-in performance could affect stamina or power, but no specific concerns reported.
• Gomez aims to maintain unbeaten status which is a strong motivator; Humaine Jr looks to upset expectations which may fuel aggressive tactics but also risk-taking.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: -1400, away: +700	Yoelvis Gomez	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	-1400	Yoelvis Gomez -1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 78%
Over/under	-110	Under 7.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Yoelvis Gomez -5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Yoelvis Gomez at -5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Yoelvis Gomez wins decisively by moneyline with confidence strong enough to back a spread win and a relatively shorter bout under the total rounds.

Predicted Score: Yoelvis Gomez wins by KO/TKO in round 6