Match Analysis: Ottawa Redblacks vs Edmonton Elks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-22
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Commonwealth Stadium, Edmonton
Game Overview
The Edmonton Elks will host the Ottawa Redblacks in a pivotal Week 12 CFL matchup. Edmonton currently holds a 2-9 record with momentum from recent wins, while Ottawa stands at 3-7. The Elks recently snapped a long home losing streak with a 30-20 victory over Ottawa, signaling improved form. Both teams are fighting to climb out of their respective slumps.
Key Factors to Consider
- Edmonton has won their last two games including a recent home win against Ottawa by 10 points and an earlier road victory over Hamilton, showcasing offensive improvements led by Justin Rankin and Cody Fajardo. Ottawa has struggled with a 3-7 record, though they have shown resilience and the capacity to score, as seen in their close contests with Edmonton earlier this season.
- In their most recent meeting on August 17, 2025, Edmonton defeated Ottawa 30-20 at Commonwealth Stadium, breaking a 22-game home losing streak. Earlier in the season, Edmonton also beat Ottawa in Week 5. The Elks have shown dominance at home against the Redblacks recently.
- No specific recent injuries reported affecting key starters from either side in the available data. Both teams appear to have their main squads intact for this matchup.
- The game is played at Edmonton's Commonwealth Stadium, providing a home field advantage for the Elks. Weather forecast and other environmental factors were not mentioned but could play a role. Edmonton is boosted by Edmonton legends' presence and team morale due to recent breaking of historic losing streaks.
- Edmonton is motivated to continue capitalizing on newfound momentum and continue climbing the standings. Ottawa aims to rebound and prevent a season sweep by Edmonton, seeking critical wins to keep playoff hopes alive.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Edmonton Elks: -172, Ottawa Redblacks: 142 | Edmonton Elks win | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Edmonton Elks: -3 (-122), Ottawa Redblacks: +3 (100) | Edmonton Elks to cover -3 spread | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 53.5: -110, Under 53.5: -110 | Over 53.5 points | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ottawa Redblacks -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 53.5 5% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 53.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Edmonton Elks are favored to win again due to current form, home advantage, and recent head-to-head successes. The prediction leans towards a moderately comfortable win for Edmonton with a final score margin similar to their prior encounter.
Predicted Score: Edmonton Elks 31 – Ottawa Redblacks 21