The round of 16 Copa Libertadores clash between São Paulo and Atlético Nacional is a tightly poised fixture with São Paulo as slight favorites. Both teams come into the game on recent wins and solid group stage form, but the match's knockout nature and Atlético Nacional's home advantage add complexity.
Key Factors to Consider
São Paulo finished top of their group with 4 wins and 2 draws, scoring 10 and conceding 4 goals. Atlético Nacional had 3 wins but 3 losses, scoring 7 and conceding 6, showing vulnerability but strong enough form at home.
Historically, the matchup has been balanced with close scorelines. Recent data suggest tight contests with likelihood of a draw or narrow win for either side.
No major injury news reported for either team impacting key starters, suggesting both teams can field their strongest lineups.
Match played at Atlético Nacional's home ground in Medellín, giving them altitude and fan support advantage. Weather and pitch condition expected to be typical with no disruptions.
São Paulo aims to secure an away win or draw with goals to ease second leg. Atlético Nacional highly motivated to leverage home advantage and start with an assertive result.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
-122
São Paulo
★★★☆☆ 64%
Spread
-130
São Paulo -0.5
★★★☆☆ 61%
Over/under
-115 / -113
Under 2 goals
★★★☆☆ 58%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Atlético Nacional S.A 120%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 2 9%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Atlético Nacional S.A at 120% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 30% (Kelly Criterion)
Location: Estadio Presidente Juan Domingo Perón (Racing Club's home)
Game Overview
A crucial Copa Libertadores match where Racing Club hosts Peñarol Montevideo. Both teams show contrasting recent forms and stats, with Racing favored at home by bookmakers but Peñarol boasting solid away defensive resilience.
Key Factors to Consider
Racing Club is strong at home and favored by odds (-162 moneyline), but has shown some inconsistency lately. Peñarol has exceptional home form historically but is less dominant away and has scored few goals on the road recently.
Recent head-to-head fixtures show tight contests; previous match at Penarol's home ended 1-0 to Penarol, highlighting the defensive solidity and low scoring tendency in matchups.
Racing Club may be missing defender Germán Pezzella, weakening their backline. Peñarol has no significant injury concerns reported.
Travel fatigue for Peñarol may slightly reduce their away performance. The match's continental importance increases motivation for both sides.
Racing Club, playing at home, is motivated to leverage home advantage and improve group standings. Peñarol aims to defy odds and prove their strength away from Montevideo.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
home: -162, draw: +290, away: +460
Racing Club
★★★★☆ 70%
Spread
home: -132, away: +102, line: -0.75
Racing Club -0.75
★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under
over: -150, under: +115, line: 2
Under 2 goals
★★★☆☆ 60%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Racing Club -6%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 2 29%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2 at 29% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 25.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Location: Dana White's Contender Series – Heavyweight Division
Game Overview
Heavyweight division MMA bout between American Josh Hokit and Brazilian Guilherme Uriel on Dana White's Contender Series.
Key Factors to Consider
Josh Hokit is heavily favored with a significant recent form advantage and dominant wrestling skills, while Guilherme Uriel has shown decent but less consistent results in previous LFA and Dana White contests.
No recorded direct past matchups between the two fighters.
No reported injuries for either fighter entering this bout; both are expected to compete at full health.
Fight takes place under Dana White's Contender Series spotlight, providing high motivation especially for Hokit who has previously demonstrated strong performances in this environment.
Josh Hokit appears highly motivated to leverage his wrestling and secure a win to advance his UFC prospects; Uriel may be motivated but is the underdog facing a tough stylistic matchup.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Josh Hokit: -450, Guilherme Uriel: +350
Josh Hokit
★★★★☆ 82%
Spread
Josh Hokit -1.5: -120, Guilherme Uriel +1.5: +100
Josh Hokit -1.5
★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under
Over 1.5: +120, Under 1.5: -150
Under 1.5 rounds
★★★★☆ 70%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Josh Hokit -10%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 1.5 13%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Josh Hokit win. Spread: Josh Hokit by -1.5 rounds. Over/Under: Under 1.5 rounds.
Predicted Score: Josh Hokit wins by decision or late stoppage before round 2
Location: Dana White's Contender Series, UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV
Game Overview
Featherweight main card fight featuring Manuel Exposito (13-2) from Argentina vs. Jose Delano (15-3) from Brazil. Both fighters are in good recent form with contrasting styles and solid submission skills.
Key Factors to Consider
Exposito is 13-2 with a balanced finish ratio: 53.8% submissions, 23.1% KO, 23.1% decisions. Delano is slightly more experienced (15-3) with similarly versatile skills. Both have solid grappling but Delano edges on experience and recent activity.
This is their first official meeting; no prior H2H data available. Both fighters familiar with Contender Series-level competition.
No known current injuries for either fighter leading into the bout, fully prepared to compete.
Battle at UFC APEX with neutral venue conditions. No significant external disruptions or advantages reported.
Both fighters motivated for a UFC contract, but Delano has a slight psychological edge as the betting favorite, implying market confidence and presumed momentum.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Jose Delano: -425, Manuel Exposito: +325
Jose Delano
★★★★☆ 74%
Over/under
Over 2.5 rounds -125, Under 2.5 rounds -105
Under 2.5 rounds
★★★☆☆ 63%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Jose Delano -6%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 2.5 21%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 21% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 22.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Jose Delano to win. Spread: Jose Delano -1.5 rounds. Over/Under: Under 2.5 rounds (fight expected to finish before 3rd round).
Predicted Score: Jose Delano wins by submission in Round 2
Main card Bantamweight bout on Dana White's Contender Series between undefeated Louis Lee Scott (9-0) and undefeated Kaushil Saikumar (5-0). Both fighters are rising prospects with contrasting styles and limited head-to-head history.
Key Factors to Consider
Louis Lee Scott boasts a more extensive professional record (9-0) with consistently dominant performances, including a mix of striking and grappling, while Kaushil Saikumar, though undefeated (5-0), has less high-level experience and fewer fights against top-tier opponents.
No prior fights or direct head-to-head matchups between the two, making matchup stylistics and recent form key.
No reported injuries on either side ahead of the fight; both appear to be in peak condition.
Fight takes place in the high-exposure environment of Dana White's Contender Series, increasing pressure but also motivation, particularly for Lee Scott, who is closely watched due to his longer winning streak.
Louis Lee Scott likely motivated to secure UFC contract due to longer tenure and undefeated streak with bigger spotlight. Kaushil Saikumar also motivated but with lower profile and fewer inversions in betting lines.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Louis Lee Scott: -560, Kaushil Saikumar: +360, Draw: +1500
Louis Lee Scott
★★★★☆ 78%
Spread
Louis Lee Scott -1.5 rounds: -180, Kaushil Saikumar +1.5 rounds: +140
Louis Lee Scott -1.5 rounds (win before the end of round 2)
★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under
Over 2.5 rounds: +100, Under 2.5 rounds: -120
Under 2.5 rounds
★★★☆☆ 65%
Top EV Betting Odds
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Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Home 0%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
N/A
🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Louis Lee Scott to win by moneyline.
Predicted Score: Louis Lee Scott wins by TKO in Round 2
This is a featherweight division matchup between undefeated fighters Tommy Cuozzi (8-0) and Ramiro Jimenez (10-0) on Dana White's Contender Series. Both fighters have perfect records and are prospect fighters aiming to impress for UFC contracts.
Key Factors to Consider
Ramiro Jimenez has a slightly larger sample size with 10 wins, showcasing consistent performance. Tommy Cuozzi is also undefeated with 8 wins but has less professional experience. Both fighters show strong finishing rates and well-rounded skill sets.
This is their first meeting; no previous head-to-head data is available.
No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to this fight.
Fight takes place at a high-stakes setting with Dana White's Contender Series, increasing motivation and level of preparation. No travel or altitude-related concerns noted.
Both fighters are highly motivated to secure a UFC contract by impressing in this main card featherweight bout, likely pushing them to fight aggressively with good game plans.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
home: +280, away: -390
Ramiro Jimenez
★★★★☆ 78%
Spread
Ramiro Jimenez -1.5: -150, Tommy Cuozzi +1.5: +130
Ramiro Jimenez -1.5
★★★☆☆ 67%
Over/under
Over 1.5 rounds: -110, Under 1.5 rounds: -110
Under 1.5 rounds
★★★☆☆ 60%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Ramiro Jimenez -8%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
N/A
🔥 Best Value Pick: Ramiro Jimenez at -8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Ramiro Jimenez to win via moneyline.
Predicted Score: Ramiro Jimenez wins via decision or late stoppage in Round 2
Middleweight MMA fight between Brandon Holmes and Cam Rowston in Dana White's Contender Series main card.
Key Factors to Consider
Both fighters show solid recent form with no major losing streaks. Holmes is slightly favored by bookmakers, indicating a marginal edge in performance metrics and experience.
No previous encounters between Brandon Holmes and Cam Rowston.
No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to the fight, indicating full physical readiness.
Fight taking place in a high-stakes Dana White's Contender Series environment which increases motivation and pressure on both fighters.
Both fighters are highly motivated to impress for UFC contract consideration, but Holmes' slight odds favor suggests he might have better camp preparation or perceived skill advantage.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
home: -140, away: +110
Brandon Holmes
★★★★☆ 72%
Spread
home -1.5: -150, away +1.5: +130
Brandon Holmes -1.5
★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under
over 2.5: -125, under 2.5: -105
Over 2.5 rounds
★★★☆☆ 60%
Top EV Betting Odds
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Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Brandon Holmes -1%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 2.5 -1%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Brandon Holmes at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Brandon Holmes to win by moneyline, cover a -1.5 spread, and the fight to go over 2.5 rounds.
Predicted Score: Holmes wins by decision or late finish around round 3 or 4