Match Analysis: Botafogo vs Palmeiras – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-17
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio Olímpico Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Game Overview
The match between Botafogo and Palmeiras is a key fixture in the Brazilian Serie A (Campeonato Brasileiro). Botafogo is currently placed 5th, while Palmeiras holds 3rd position in the league. Both teams have shown competitive form this season, with Palmeiras ranked first in away performance and Botafogo having a solid home record. The match is expected to be closely contested given their historical rivalry and current positions in the table.
Key Factors to Consider
- Botafogo has scored 9 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 1.8 goals per game, with strong offensive contributions from Alex Telles and Santiago Rodriguez. Palmeiras scored 5 goals in their last 5 matches, is strong defensively conceding only 0.8 goals per match, and leads in awarded penalties this season (5). Palmeiras holds the best away record this season, while Botafogo has a solid home record.
- Historically, Palmeiras leads the head-to-head with 14 wins to Botafogo's 9, along with 7 draws in at least 30 meetings. More comprehensive stats show Palmeiras winning 19 out of 42 matches played since 2004, with Botafogo winning 12. Palmeiras has a slight statistical edge overall.
- No specific injury information is available in the data. Predicted lineups are expected close to match time.
- The match will be held at Botafogo's home stadium, Estádio Olímpico Nilton Santos, giving them a home advantage. Palmeiras’ strong away form might offset this. No weather or other external factors were mentioned.
- Palmeiras, ranking higher in the league and leading away records, are motivated to maintain their strong performance. Botafogo, with home advantage and a recent scoring streak, will be motivated to challenge Palmeiras and secure points.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Botafogo: 170, Palmeiras: 165, Draw: 195 | Draw | ★★☆☆☆ 45% |
| Spread | Botafogo: -108, Palmeiras: -112 | Palmeiras +0 (Asian handicap) | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
| Over/under | Over: -118, Under: -102 | Under 2 goals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Palmeiras 12% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2 19% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2 at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 19.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The game is predicted to be a closely fought encounter. Given Palmeiras’ slight historical edge and superior away form versus Botafogo's strong home scoring, a draw or narrow Palmeiras win is most probable.
Predicted Score: 1-1