Match Analysis: Oakland Athletics vs Tampa Bay Rays – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-13
- Time: 2:06 AM UTC
- Location: Sutter Health Park, Oakland, California
Game Overview
The Oakland Athletics host the Tampa Bay Rays in the second game of a three-game series. Both teams have similar season records but differ in recent form and pitching matchups. The Athletics have a slightly lower win total and struggle with bullpen ERA, while the Rays have starting pitching inconsistency, specifically with Shane Baz's struggles this season. The contest is expected to be competitive with scoring potential around the total of 10 runs.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Rays are 58-62 this season, dealing with recent losses, including a 6-3 defeat to Seattle. The Athletics have a 53-68 record but have shown improved offense lately and play in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Rays' pitcher Shane Baz has a 4.92 ERA with multiple starts giving up at least three runs, while Athletics' Jacob Lopez shows solid strikeout numbers but a high walks and home run rate.
- The Rays have had some success against Oakland in recent meetings, with starters like Ryan Pepiot holding a career 2-0 record against the Athletics and a 3.06 ERA. The Athletics are favored at home historically but have not dominated recently in the series.
- There are no major reported injuries affecting the starting lineups or pitching rotations that would substantially alter team strength for this contest.
- The game being at Sutter Health Park, a hitter-friendly stadium, favors offensive output. Weather conditions are stable with no significant impact on gameplay. The Athletics’ bullpen ranks poorly in ERA, which could be a liability in close scoring situations.
- Both teams are motivated to improve standings late in the season. The Rays look to rebound from recent losses and prepare for an upcoming road series, while the Athletics aim to capitalize at home and finalize their footing this season.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Oakland -112, Tampa Bay -104 | Oakland Athletics | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | Oakland +1.5 -176, Tampa Bay -1.5 +146 | Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Over/under | Over 10 -108, Under 10 -112 | Over 10 runs | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Oakland Athletics 4% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 10 12% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 10 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Oakland Athletics to win on the moneyline, Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 on the spread, and Over 10 runs total
Predicted Score: Athletics 6 – Rays 5