The Brisbane Broncos host the South Sydney Rabbitohs in a critical NRL Round 22 match at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. The Broncos enter as strong favourites riding a wave of momentum and strong home form, while the Rabbitohs face significant challenges on the road and recent inconsistent performances. This match is key for both teams' season trajectories, with Brisbane expected to dominate defensively.
Key Factors to Consider
Brisbane Broncos have shown strong form leading up to this match, playing with momentum and leveraging a nearly unbeatable home advantage under Friday night lights. Their attack and defense statistics are superior to South Sydney, with an 8.7 points per game advantage in attack and a solid defensive line. The Rabbitohs have struggled away from home and lack consistency, which is likely to be exploited by the Broncos.
Recent head-to-head matches heavily favour Brisbane Broncos, both in overall power rankings (Broncos 5 vs Rabbitohs 17) and specific attack and defense metrics. The last meetings have seen Broncos come out on top or produce competitive results, strengthening their psychological edge and confidence going into this game.
No specific injury information is provided in the current data, implying no major known absences affecting either side. Both teams appear to be close to full strength.
Playing at Suncorp Stadium strongly favours Brisbane due to crowd support and familiarity with conditions. The home ground factor is significant in motivating the Broncos and impacting the Rabbitohs' ability to perform optimally.
Brisbane Broncos are highly motivated to maintain their successful run and secure a critical home win. The Rabbitohs, on the other hand, seek to arrest their away form slump and prove resilience but face a challenging environment and momentum deficit.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Brisbane Broncos: -675, South Sydney Rabbitohs: 460, Draw: 2800
Brisbane Broncos Win
β β β β β 85%
Spread
Brisbane Broncos: -16.5 -110, South Sydney Rabbitohs: +16.5 -120
Brisbane Broncos to Cover -16.5
β β β β β 75%
Over/under
Over 49.5: -115, Under 49.5: -115
Under 49.5 Points
β β β β β 70%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Brisbane Broncos -9%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 49.5 12%
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 49.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Brisbane Broncos are predicted to win decisively given their superior form, home ground advantage, and statistical dominance, likely resulting in a moderate scoring blowout with defense limiting Rabbitohs' scoring opportunities.
Predicted Score: Brisbane Broncos 28 – South Sydney Rabbitohs 13
The upcoming NRL Round 22 match features the New Zealand Warriors hosting the Dolphins in what is expected to be a closely contested game. Their last encounter in May 2025 saw the Warriors narrowly defeating the Dolphins 16-12 in a tight match characterized by strong edge plays and critical kicks. Both teams have shown competitive form through the season, with the Warriors showing resilience in defense and the Dolphins capable of scoring tries deep into games.
Key Factors to Consider
The Warriors have demonstrated consistent defensive performances, keeping scores low against strong opposition. The Dolphins display attacking strengths, especially on the edges, but have struggled to close out tightly contested matches. Recent form suggests both teams are evenly matched, although the Warriors have a slight edge at home.
In their previous meeting on 17 May 2025, the Warriors won 16-12 against the Dolphins at Suncorp Stadium. This close game featured tries from both sides and was decided by key defensive stands late in the game. Historically, meetings between these teams have been competitive without clear dominance from either side.
No detailed current squad injury reports are available; however, as the team list was updated on 29 July 2025, monitoring last-minute changes will be essential. The impact of any key player absences could sway this tight matchup.
No significant external factors such as extreme weather or unusually long travel for either team are noted. The game being played in early August is during the regular season, suggesting normal conditions and routine player fitness.
Both teams are motivated to improve their ladder positions in Round 22. The close nature of past encounters adds to the competitive intensity, and playing at home should give the Warriors extra motivation to secure a win in front of their fans.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Dolphins: -138, New Zealand Warriors: 120, Draw: 2000
Dolphins favored but with a narrow margin
β β β ββ 58%
Spread
Dolphins: -1.5 -135, New Zealand Warriors: +1.5 105
Dolphins -1.5
β β β ββ 55%
Over/under
Over 45.5: -115, Under 45.5: -115
Under 45.5
β β β ββ 60%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Dolphins -10%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 45.5 12%
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 45.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the recent form, slim margin in their last encounter, and home advantage, the New Zealand Warriors are favored to win but the Dolphins have strong prospects to keep the game close or edge out a narrow win if key plays go their way.
Predicted Score: Dolphins 22 – 20 New Zealand Warriors