The Brisbane Broncos enter as significant favorites hosting the South Sydney Rabbitohs, who have struggled on the road. Brisbane showcases superior recent form, a stronger attack and defense, and benefits from strong home advantage.
Key Factors to Consider
Brisbane is in peak form, ranked 5th in power rankings versus South Sydney's 17th, with an attack advantage of 8.7 points per game and very solid defensive metrics. The Rabbitohs have continued to struggle away from home.
Historical data favors Brisbane strongly: out of 50 matches, Broncos won 33, including 19 at home. At Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane won 14 of 21 meetings against South Sydney with a 487–436 points edge.
No critical injuries reported for either side that would significantly change team strength; Broncos maintain a near full-strength squad boosting their dominance.
The hostile atmosphere at Suncorp Stadium and Friday night timing favors Brisbane, who historically thrive in this environment. South Sydney travel fatigue and poor away record create a challenging scenario for them.
Brisbane is motivated to secure a commanding win to consolidate playoff positioning, while South Sydney faces pressure to break a poor away streak and salvage confidence.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Brisbane Broncos -675, South Sydney Rabbitohs +460, Draw +2800
Brisbane Broncos
★★★★☆ 74%
Spread
Brisbane Broncos -16.5 (-110), South Sydney Rabbitohs +16.5 (-120)
Brisbane Broncos -16.5
★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under
Over 49.5 (-115), Under 49.5 (-115)
Under 49.5
★★★☆☆ 68%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Brisbane Broncos -15%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 49.5 27%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 49.5 at 27% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 31.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Brisbane Broncos will win outright with a strong defensive performance keeping the total score under 49.5 points.
Predicted Score: Brisbane Broncos 24 – South Sydney Rabbitohs 14
The New Zealand Warriors host the Dolphins in a crucial NRL Round 22 clash where the Dolphins are slight favorites based on predictive analytics despite the Warriors holding home ground advantage.
Key Factors to Consider
The Dolphins have demonstrated superior recent form with several high-scoring wins, including 43-24 over Cowboys and 50-28 over Rabbitohs, while the Warriors have mixed results recently including a loss to Titans and narrow wins in some matches.
Limited history between the teams with no clear dominance; previous meetings have been close contests with recent matches evenly split.
No specific major injuries reported impacting starting lineups for either team in the available data, suggesting key players should be available for both sides.
Playing at Go Media Stadium benefits the Warriors due to strong home support, but Dolphins have shown resilience on the road and in challenging environments.
Both teams are motivated to secure finals positions; Warriors aiming to maintain a higher ladder position, Dolphins pushing hard to climb into the Top 8.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Dolphins: -138, Warriors: 120, Draw: 2000
Dolphins
★★★★☆ 72%
Spread
Dolphins -1.5: -135, Warriors +1.5: 105
Dolphins -1.5
★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under
Over 45.5: -115, Under 45.5: -115
Over 45.5
★★★☆☆ 65%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Dolphins 7%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 45.5 7%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Dolphins at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
For moneyline, bet on Dolphins to win given better form and statistical edge. For spread, Dolphins -1.5 is favored due to momentum and more reliable attack. For total points, expect over 45.5 as both teams possess firepower and history of high scoring.