Jesus Pinedo vs. Movlid Khaybulaev Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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August 1, 2025 Jesus Pinedo MMA/Boxing Movlid Khaybulaev

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Match Analysis: Jesus Pinedo vs Movlid Khaybulaev – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-01
• Time: 10:30 PM UTC
• Location: Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall, Atlantic City, New Jersey

Game Overview

The 2025 PFL World Featherweight Title bout features former 2023 PFL Featherweight Champion Jesus Pinedo versus undefeated 2021 PFL Featherweight Champion Movlid Khaybulaev. Both fighters are elite featherweights with contrasting styles: Pinedo is an aggressive striker known for finishing fights with powerful knockouts, while Khaybulaev employs dominant Dagestani wrestling to control and outgrapple opponents. The bout is set for five rounds and will decide the divisional supremacy and tournament champion.

Key Factors to Consider

• Jesus Pinedo holds a professional record of 25-6-1 with a recent finishing streak characterized by explosive striking and knockout power. Movlid Khaybulaev is unbeaten at 23-0-1 (1 NC), renowned for his smothering wrestling style and relentless ground control that neutralizes opponents effectively.
• Pinedo and Khaybulaev have not fought previously, making this a highly anticipated first-time encounter between two former PFL featherweight champions with contrasting skill sets.
• No reported injuries were found for either fighter ahead of the bout, indicating both should be at full health on fight night.
• The fight takes place at the prestigious Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall as part of the PFL World Tournament Finals, with significant prize money and divisional prestige on the line. This high-stakes environment may affect fighter motivation and strategy.
• Pinedo is motivated to reclaim the featherweight crown after winning in 2023 and is coming off a strong run of finishes. Khaybulaev is driven to maintain his undefeated status and prove his dominance with a second PFL tournament title.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jesus Pinedo: -165, Movlid Khaybulaev: 135	Jesus Pinedo	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Jesus Pinedo: -1.5, Movlid Khaybulaev: +1.5	Jesus Pinedo to win by more than 1.5 rounds (i.e., clear win)	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	over_3.5_rounds: -110, under_3.5_rounds: -110	Over 3.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Jesus Pinedo -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Jesus Pinedo at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given Pinedo's heavy striking style versus Khaybulaev’s grappling dominance, the fight likely hinges on whether Pinedo can avoid takedowns to utilize his knockout power. The betting favorite and more probable winner is Jesus Pinedo at -165 odds, with Khaybulaev as underdog at +135. The prediction favors Pinedo winning via knockout or decision by outstriking, but Khaybulaev’s grappling could drag the fight to a decision or submission if Pinedo fails to keep it standing.

Predicted Score: Jesus Pinedo wins by unanimous decision or knockout in round 3 or 4

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Thad Jean vs. Logan Storley Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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August 1, 2025 Logan Storley MMA/Boxing Thad Jean

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Match Analysis: Thad Jean vs Logan Storley – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-01
• Time: 10:30 PM UTC
• Location: Boardwalk Hall, Atlantic City, United States

Game Overview

The Welterweight final of the 2025 PFL World Tournament features Thad Jean, an undefeated knockout artist (10-0), against Logan Storley (18-3), a veteran with an elite wrestling background. This championship bout will take place at Boardwalk Hall, a historic fight venue in Atlantic City, and is the headline event of the PFL World Tournament 8: 2025 Finals, broadcast live on DAZN.

Key Factors to Consider

• Thad Jean has maintained a perfect 10-0 record with a high finishing rate via knockouts, demonstrating strong striking and finishing ability. Logan Storley brings experience with 18 wins and 3 losses, known particularly for his high-level wrestling skills and resilience. Both fighters have displayed consistent performances throughout the season, making this match highly competitive.
• There is no recorded previous matchup between Thad Jean and Logan Storley, making this their first direct meeting in a high-stakes final.
• No injury reports or fitness issues have been disclosed for either fighter ahead of the bout, indicating both are expected to be at full capacity.
• The fight takes place in a prestigious and potentially emotionally charged venue, Boardwalk Hall, which could impact fighter motivation and performance. The event is streamed globally on DAZN, emphasizing high stakes and visibility. Logan Storley’s training camp includes notable fighters such as Jason Jackson, potentially influencing his preparation.
• Thad Jean enters with the motivation of preserving an undefeated record and claiming his first PFL Welterweight title. Logan Storley aims to leverage his experience and wrestling pedigree to upset the unbeaten champion and secure the championship, adding substantial motivation in a career-defining moment.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Thad Jean: -240, Logan Storley: +190	Thad Jean	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Thad Jean -1.5 rounds: -150, Logan Storley +1.5 rounds: +130	Thad Jean by more than 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 3.5 rounds: +110, Under 3.5 rounds: -130	Under 3.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Thad Jean -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Thad Jean at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Based on current live moneyline odds favoring Thad Jean (-240) over Logan Storley (+190) and Jean's unbeaten status and knockout power, the prediction favors Thad Jean by decision or late stoppage with a confidence level around 65%. However, Logan Storley’s wrestling and experience could allow him to control portions of the fight, making an upset possible at about 30% probability.

Predicted Score: Thad Jean wins by decision or late stoppage in round 3 or 4

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Asael Adjoudj vs. Yves Landu Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Asael Adjoudj August 1, 2025 MMA/Boxing Yves Landu

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Match Analysis: Asael Adjoudj vs Yves Landu – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-01
• Time: 10:30 PM UTC
• Location: Atlantic City, New Jersey

Game Overview

The featherweight bout between Asael Adjoudj and Yves Landu is part of the 2025 PFL World Tournament 8 Finals. Adjoudj enters the match with a 9-1 record and 1-0 in PFL fights, while Landu holds a 21-9 record with no prior PFL matches. The fight is crucial as it represents a high stakes environment with both fighters having contrasting experience profiles.

Key Factors to Consider

• Asael Adjoudj has a strong recent performance trend, showing sharp striking and good fight IQ in his 9 wins versus 1 loss. Yves Landu's longer career includes more fights (30 total) with 21 wins, indicating experience but a mixed performance record.
• This appears to be the first professional meeting between Adjoudj and Landu with no prior head-to-head history available.
• No current injury reports or withdrawals were found for either fighter leading up to the fight, suggesting both should be in optimal condition.
• The fight being held in Atlantic City, a neutral venue, likely minimizes home advantage. Landu's presence on social media and highlight reels shows strong motivation and engagement leading up to the bout.
• As a PFL debutant, Landu is highly motivated to prove himself, while Adjoudj aims to continue his unbeaten streak in PFL and capitalize on momentum from recent wins.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Asael Adjoudj: -210, Yves Landu: 170	Asael Adjoudj	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Asael Adjoudj: -1.5, Yves Landu: +1.5	Asael Adjoudj to cover the spread	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over: 1.85, Under: 1.95	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Asael Adjoudj -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Asael Adjoudj at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Asael Adjoudj is favored to win based on current odds and recent performance data, with a prediction that he will secure a victory either by decision or a late stoppage given his tactical fighting style and efficient striking.

Predicted Score: Asael Adjoudj wins via unanimous decision or TKO in round 3

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Jakub Kaszuba vs. Sergio Cossio Dominguez Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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August 1, 2025 Jakub Kaszuba MMA/Boxing Sergio Cossio Dominguez

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Match Analysis: Jakub Kaszuba vs Sergio Cossio Dominguez – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-01
• Time: 10:30 PM UTC
• Location: PFL World Tournament 8: 2025 Finals (Atlantic City, exact venue TBD)

Game Overview

Jakub Kaszuba faces Sergio Cossio Dominguez in a 3-round mixed martial arts fight at the PFL World Tournament 8 finals. Kaszuba is recognized for his striking power and agility, while Dominguez is known for his strong grappling and submission skills. Both fighters have shown impressive recent performances, setting the stage for a competitive and exciting bout.

Key Factors to Consider

• Kaszuba has a record of 27-10-1 with notable knockout power, emphasizing boxing and agility. Dominguez is on a winning streak with five consecutive wins, demonstrating superior grappling and ground control, which could neutralize Kaszuba's striking.
• There is no recorded previous matchup between Jakub Kaszuba and Sergio Cossio Dominguez, making this their first encounter, which adds unpredictability to the fight dynamics.
• No current injury reports or weigh-in issues have been noted for either fighter, suggesting both athletes are in prime condition for the bout.
• The fight takes place within a high-stakes environment of the PFL World Tournament finals, contributing to increased motivation and pressure. The exact venue in Atlantic City remains to be confirmed, but the event is expected to be well-covered on ESPN.
• Both fighters are highly motivated to perform well due to the finals setting and potential career advancements. Dominguez's recent victory in a demanding 10-round fight against Byron Rojas may give him added confidence and stamina.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jakub Kaszuba: -650, Sergio Cossio Dominguez: 475	Jakub Kaszuba to win	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Jakub Kaszuba -1.5 rounds: -120, Sergio Cossio Dominguez +1.5 rounds: 100	Jakub Kaszuba to win within 3 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: 110, Under 2.5 rounds: -130	Under 2.5 rounds (fight ending before full distance)	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Jakub Kaszuba -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Jakub Kaszuba at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given Kaszuba’s striking dominance and Dominguez’s grappling edge, the fight likely comes down to whether Dominguez can implement ground game successfully or if Kaszuba keeps it standing and scores a knockout or decision. Prediction favors Jakub Kaszuba winning by knockout or decision with a close margin.

Predicted Score: Jakub Kaszuba wins via KO/TKO in Round 2

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Jordan Newman vs. Eslam Baset Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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August 1, 2025 Eslam Baset Jordan Newman MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Jordan Newman vs Eslam Baset – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-01
• Time: 10:30 PM UTC
• Location: 2025 PFL World Tournament Atlantic City Finals, Atlantic City, USA

Game Overview

The middleweight bout between Jordan Newman (7-0) and Eslam Abdul Baset (16-3) is a 3-round fight at the 2025 PFL World Tournament Finals. Newman is an unbeaten prospect making his PFL debut, while Baset is an experienced fighter with a strong record, aiming to leverage his experience against the undefeated newcomer.

Key Factors to Consider

• Jordan Newman has an undefeated 7-0 record with no previous PFL fights, indicating a rising prospect with momentum. Eslam Baset has a more extensive 16-3 record, bringing experience but with some losses. Baset's experience in longer and tougher fights contrasts with Newman's fresh unbeaten run.
• No direct previous matchups or head-to-head meetings between Jordan Newman and Eslam Abdul Baset.
• No publicly available reports of injuries for either fighter ahead of this fight.
• The fight is held at the PFL World Tournament Finals in Atlantic City, live on ESPN, ESPN+, and DAZN. Being Newman's PFL debut, there may be added pressure or motivation. Baset, fighting an undefeated opponent, might have a psychological edge in experience.
• Jordan Newman is motivated to extend his perfect record and make a strong PFL debut on a big stage. Eslam Baset is driven to assert his experience and claim the win against an undefeated opponent, proving his resilience and skill.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jordan Newman: -900, Eslam Baset: 600	Jordan Newman	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Jordan Newman: -1.5 rounds, Eslam Baset: +1.5 rounds	Jordan Newman -1.5	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -110, Under 2.5 rounds: -110	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Jordan Newman 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Jordan Newman at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jordan Newman is predicted to win by a decision or late-round finish due to his undefeated momentum and demonstrated skill progression. Eslam Baset is a dangerous opponent with experience but is an underdog given the betting odds and Newman's trajectory.

Predicted Score: Jordan Newman wins by unanimous decision or late round stoppage after 3 rounds

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Sarek Shields vs. Nick Meck Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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August 1, 2025 MMA/Boxing Nick Meck Sarek Shields

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Match Analysis: Sarek Shields vs Nick Meck – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-01
• Time: 10:30 PM UTC
• Location: PFL World Tournament 8: 2025 Finals (venue not explicitly stated in sources)

Game Overview

The fight features Welterweights Sarek Shields and Nick Meck competing in the PFL World Tournament 8 Finals, scheduled for August 1, 2025. This match is critical in the championship context, showcasing two skilled fighters with contrasting odds and styles.

Key Factors to Consider

• Sarek Shields holds a slight edge as the favorite with moneyline odds of -141 compared to Nick Meck's +121, suggesting stronger recent form and possibly superior stats. Shields is known for solid striking and fight IQ, while Meck’s record shows resilience and adaptability.
• Limited recorded head-to-head data exists for Shields vs Meck prior to this fight, indicating this could be their first official encounter at this competitive level.
• No recent injury reports or concerns for either fighter have been noted leading up to the bout.
• The fight is a high-profile PFL championship bout, likely offering significant financial and career incentives, enhanced media coverage, and strong motivation for both athletes. No environmental or travel issues noted.
• Both fighters are expected to be highly motivated given the importance of the championship and potential career impact, with Shields as the favorite likely motivated to justify his odds, and Meck the underdog aiming to upset.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Sarek Shields: -141, Nick Meck: +121	Sarek Shields	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	over 2.5: -170, under 2.5: +140	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Sarek Shields -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 39%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 39% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 28% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Sarek Shields is favored to win given his odds and perceived performance advantages. However, the underdog status of Nick Meck coupled with his resilience means an upset is plausible though less probable.

Predicted Score: Sarek Shields wins by decision or late stoppage within 3 rounds

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Husein Kadimagomaev vs. Kyle Driscoll Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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August 1, 2025 Husein Kadimagomaev Kyle Driscoll MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Husein Kadimagomaev vs Kyle Driscoll – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-01
• Time: 10:00 PM UTC
• Location: Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall, Atlantic City, New Jersey

Game Overview

The Lightweight showcase bout between Husein Kadimagomaev and Kyle Driscoll is set for three rounds under PFL rules. Kadimagomaev brings an 11-1 record (with 2 no contests), showcasing a strong grappling and striking mix, while Driscoll has a 14-4 record coming into his PFL debut, known for his striking and toughness.

Key Factors to Consider

• Kadimagomaev's recent activity and high winning percentage (11-1) show strong form and experience in PFL environments. Driscoll, with 14 wins and 4 losses, is less experienced inside PFL but has a solid striking background.
• No previous matchups between Kadimagomaev and Driscoll have taken place. This fight marks their first encounter.
• No reported injuries to either fighter leading into the bout.
• The fight takes place during the 2025 PFL World Tournament Finals in Atlantic City, a high-stakes environment that may increase pressure but also motivation for both fighters. Kadimagomaev fights on relatively familiar ground in PFL, while Driscoll is debuting in this league.
• Kadimagomaev aims to capitalize on his strong PFL tenure and climb lighter weight ranks, while Driscoll is motivated to make a strong impression in his PFL debut and prove his worth against a top contender.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Husein Kadimagomaev: -195, Kyle Driscoll: 165	Husein Kadimagomaev	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Kadimagomaev -1.5 rounds: -150, Driscoll +1.5 rounds: +130	Kadimagomaev -1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: +110, Under 2.5 rounds: -130	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Husein Kadimagomaev -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Husein Kadimagomaev at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Husein Kadimagomaev is favored to win due to superior professional record, PFL experience, and consistent form. Driscoll’s striking and durability provide a credible threat, but Kadimagomaev's balanced skill set and league familiarity tilt the prediction towards him.

Predicted Score: Kadimagomaev wins by unanimous decision or late stoppage in round 3

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Nick Maximov vs. Renato Valente Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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August 1, 2025 MMA/Boxing Nick Maximov Renato Valente

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Match Analysis: Nick Maximov vs Renato Valente – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-01
• Time: 10:00 PM UTC
• Location: A1 Combat event venue, Sacramento, California

Game Overview

This middleweight title bout at A1 Combat 29 features Nick Maximov, the reigning champion with a 12-2 professional record and UFC experience, against Renato Valente, an experienced challenger with an 11-7 record and training out of Kings MMA.

Key Factors to Consider

• Nick Maximov has demonstrated consistent dominance with a strong fighting style incorporating submissions (4) and knockouts (3), coupled with UFC-level competition experience. Renato Valente shows resilience and skill as a veteran fighter with 7 losses but remains dangerous due to his Kings MMA training pedigree.
• No direct past matchups or head-to-head data are published, indicating this is their first competitive meeting.
• No publicly reported injuries for either fighter leading up to the match, suggesting both are in full health.
• The fight takes place in Sacramento, potentially giving Nick Maximov a home advantage as an American fighter. Renato Valente is stepping into opponent territory, which may affect performance.
• Maximov defends his middleweight title, providing strong incentive to maintain dominance. Valente looks to upset the champion, motivated by the opportunity to claim the belt and overcome a challenging record.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Nick Maximov: -800, Renato Valente: 425	Nick Maximov	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Nick Maximov: -1.5 (-250), Renato Valente: +1.5 (+200)	Nick Maximov to win by at least 2 rounds	★★★★☆ 80%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -110, Under 2.5 rounds: -110	Under 2.5 rounds (finish expected within 2 rounds)	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Nick Maximov -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Nick Maximov at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Nick Maximov is the clear favorite due to superior record, UFC experience, and home advantage, with a high likelihood to retain his middleweight title against Renato Valente.

Predicted Score: Nick Maximov wins by submission or TKO in round 2

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Matt Turnbull vs. Tom Pagliarulo Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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August 1, 2025 Matt Turnbull MMA/Boxing Tom Pagliarulo

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Match Analysis: Matt Turnbull vs Tom Pagliarulo – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-01
• Time: 10:00 PM UTC
• Location: Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall, Atlantic City, New Jersey

Game Overview

Matt Turnbull and Tom Pagliarulo face off in a featherweight showcase bout during the 2025 PFL World Tournament Finals at the iconic Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall. Turnbull (9-6) brings a solid professional record and experience, while Pagliarulo (9-2) makes his PFL debut with a reputation as a rising star known for his wrestling base and growing striking skills.

Key Factors to Consider

• Matt Turnbull has a mixed record (9-6), showing resilience but some inconsistency. Tom Pagliarulo (9-2) is on an upward trajectory with a strong wrestling foundation and improved striking, having recently joined the PFL and making a notable debut.
• No recorded head-to-head bouts as of the latest data; this matchup marks their first professional encounter.
• No specific injuries reported for either fighter leading up to the match.
• The bout is part of the PFL World Tournament Finals, carrying significant stakes and viewed on major platforms such as ESPN+. The venue, Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, provides a historic and high-pressure environment.
• Pagliarulo is motivated by his PFL debut and a desire to establish himself as a top contender, carrying the nickname 'The Phenom' and a hunger for greatness. Turnbull aims to reaffirm his position and leverage his experience against a rising opponent.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Matt Turnbull: 400, Tom Pagliarulo: -550	Tom Pagliarulo to win	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Matt Turnbull: +2.5 rounds, Tom Pagliarulo: -2.5 rounds	Tom Pagliarulo to win by more than 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	over_2.5_rounds: 1.9, under_2.5_rounds: 1.9	Under 2.5 rounds (early finish expected)	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Tom Pagliarulo -8%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Tom Pagliarulo at -8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Tom Pagliarulo is favored to win given his better current form, stronger wrestling background, and higher confidence entering the PFL stage. Matt Turnbull may pose challenges with experience but his inconsistency is a limiting factor.

Predicted Score: Tom Pagliarulo wins via 2nd round TKO

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Nathan Kelly vs. Frederik Dupras Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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August 1, 2025 Frederik Dupras MMA/Boxing Nathan Kelly

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Match Analysis: Nathan Kelly vs Frederik Dupras – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-01
• Time: 10:00 PM UTC
• Location: Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall, Atlantic City, NJ

Game Overview

The featherweight bout between Nathan Kelly and Frederik Dupras is scheduled as part of the prelims for the 2025 PFL World Tournament 8: Finals event. Nathan Kelly enters with an 11-4 record and a balanced skill set combining 4 KO/TKO wins and 5 submission wins. Frederik Dupras holds an 8-2 record with a dominant submission skill set, boasting 8 submission wins and no KO wins. The fight is expected to last the regular 3 rounds and will showcase a classic striker vs. grappler style matchup.

Key Factors to Consider

• Nathan Kelly has a slightly better overall record (11-4 vs 8-2) but has lost more fights. He wins via KO/TKO (4) and submissions (5) indicating versatility. Frederik Dupras is undefeated in submissions (8) and has better submission finishing rates but no KO wins, suggesting a grappling-dominant style.
• No recorded previous encounter between Nathan Kelly and Frederik Dupras, making this fight their first head-to-head meeting. Styles make the fight a striking vs grappling clash based on finishing type statistics.
• No reported injuries or medical issues for either fighter ahead of the bout.
• The bout takes place in the notable Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall during a high-profile PFL Finals event attended by strong audience and media coverage, potentially increasing pressure. Both fighters will aim to capitalize on the exposure.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, aiming to prove themselves on a major stage in the PFL Finals event, with Kelly possibly looking to reclaim dominance after 4 losses, and Dupras to build momentum with his grappling prowess.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Frederik_Dupras: +125, Nathan_Kelly: -150	Nathan Kelly by decision or late rounds, Dupras by early submission	Kelly 55%, Dupras 45%
Spread	Kelly: -1.5, Dupras: +1.5	Kelly to win by more than 1.5 rounds or by points	★★★☆☆ 53%
Over/under	over_2.5_rounds: -110, under_2.5_rounds: -110	Under 2.5 rounds given submission potential	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Nathan Kelly -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Nathan Kelly at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given the data, Frederik Dupras is favored due to his superior finishing rate by submission and an undefeated submission record, despite Kelly's more extensive experience. The fight likely ends by submission within 3 rounds favoring Dupras.

Predicted Score: Kelly 29-28 by judges if it goes decision; otherwise, Dupras submission win round 2

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