Match Analysis: Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-20
- Time: 1:30 PM UTC
- Location: WWK ARENA, Augsburg, Germany
Game Overview
This Bundesliga Round 4 match features Augsburg hosting FSV Mainz 05 at WWK Arena. Both teams have similar overall records this early in the season, with Augsburg slightly better positioned in form and points. Augsburg is looking to build momentum with key players returning from suspension, while Mainz aims to improve their away record and capitalize on their recent matches.
Key Factors to Consider
- Augsburg has a record of 1 win, 0 draws, and 2 losses with 3 points, showing moderate form and a 3-0 record on Over/Under totals. Mainz has 0 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses with 1 point. Augsburg has scored in away matches and demonstrated a slightly better form overall. Both teams have struggled to consistently cover spreads.
- Historically, Augsburg and Mainz are well matched with 13 wins each and 3 draws between them, showing a balanced rivalry. Recent encounters show tight contests, indicating no clear dominance from either side in this fixture.
- Augsburg is boosted by the return of Samuel Essende from suspension in time for this match. No major injuries reported for Mainz affecting their starting lineup at present.
- The match is played at Augsburg's home ground, WWK Arena, which may provide a home advantage. Weather and travel conditions appear normal with no known external disruptions.
- Augsburg seems motivated to capitalize on a winnable fixture to kickstart a positive trend before the next international break. Mainz seeks to improve their poor away form and gain points after a slow start to the season.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Augsburg: 1.73, FSV Mainz 05: 1.55, Draw: 2.4 | FSV Mainz 05 Moneyline | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
| Spread | Augsburg: -102, FSV Mainz 05: -118, spread_line: 0 | FSV Mainz 05 +0 | ★★★☆☆ 52% |
| Over/under | Over: -112, Under: -108, line: 2.5 | Over 2.5 goals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | FSV Mainz 05 15% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 14% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: FSV Mainz 05 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Augsburg is predicted to edge out Mainz 05 in a closely contested game due to home advantage, slightly better form, and the return of key players. A 2-1 scoreline is likely, reflecting a competitive match with goals from both sides.
Predicted Score: 2-1