Match Analysis: Auburn Tigers vs St. John's Red Storm – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-27
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Paradise, NV
Game Overview
The Auburn Tigers (5-1) host the St. John's Red Storm (4-2) at Michelob ULTRA Arena on November 27, 2025. Auburn holds a strong early-season record including 5-0 against the spread and a high-scoring profile, while St. John's is competitive with a 4-2 record and good offensive efficiency. Both teams exhibit tendencies toward high totals, with recent game totals hitting the over consistently.
Key Factors to Consider
- Auburn is 5-1 overall and 5-0 ATS, averaging strong offensive output and dominant spreads, with recent games going over the total consistently. St. John's sits at 4-2, ranks 7th in the Big East, and boasts one of the top offensive efficiencies nationally, scoring 95.3 points per game but has struggled against SEC teams, losing the last six meetings.
- St. John's has lost its last six games against Southeastern Conference teams including Auburn's conference. Auburn has been dominant in non-conference games, winning 21 of their last 24. St. John's tends to start well in first halves against ranked teams, while Auburn has recently struggled against AP-ranked opponents.
- Imran Suljanovic from Auburn is listed as injured (knee), which could impact depth but no major starters are reportedly out for either team.
- Game is at a neutral site (Michelob ULTRA Arena), favoring neither team directly, but Auburn is effectively playing away while St. John's is used to home court advantage. Weather and travel should have minimal impact.
- Both teams are motivated to assert dominance early in the season; Auburn looks to leverage its conference strength advantage, while St. John's aims to improve its SEC road record and continue its strong offensive pace.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Auburn Tigers: +190, St. John's Red Storm: -230 | St. John's Red Storm moneyline win | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Spread | Auburn Tigers: +5.5 -110, St. John's Red Storm: -5.5 -110 | St. John's -5.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over: 167.5 -110, Under: 167.5 -110 | Over 167.5 | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Home 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 167.5 34% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 167.5 at 34% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 37% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
St. John's Red Storm to cover the -5.5 spread and win narrowly in a high-scoring contest. The total points are likely to go over 167.5 due to both teams' offensive efficiency and recent trends toward overs.
Predicted Score: St. John's Red Storm 87 – Auburn Tigers 81