Match Analysis: Sao Paulo vs Atlético Nacional S.A – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-20
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: MorumBIS
Game Overview
This is the second leg of the 2025 Copa Libertadores Round of 16 between São Paulo and Atlético Nacional S.A. The first leg ended in a 0-0 draw at Estadio Atanasio Girardot, giving a balanced outlook for this decisive home match for São Paulo. Both teams have shown solid form recently with strong defensive capabilities, reflected in the scoreless first leg.
Key Factors to Consider
- São Paulo has been unbeaten in their last 9 matches while Atlético Nacional remains unbeaten in their last 6 matches, demonstrating strong form from both sides. São Paulo has a slight edge in recent home performance, and their recent victories in domestic and continental play suggest good momentum.
- Historically, the two teams have met 7 times with Atlético Nacional leading with 3 wins, São Paulo having 2 wins, and 2 draws. The recent 0-0 first leg result indicates a tightly contested matchup.
- No specific injury reports are available for this fixture at present, but the lineups will only be finalized close to match time. Absence of key players could affect either team due to the match's high stakes.
- Playing at home (MorumBIS) gives São Paulo a distinct advantage with familiar conditions and local crowd support. Weather and pitch conditions are typical for August in Brazil, likely not impacting the game negatively.
- São Paulo has high motivation to advance, especially at home, needing to secure at least a 1-0 win to progress. Atlético Nacional is motivated to score away to avoid elimination and rely on defensive resilience.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Atlético Nacional S.A: 400, São Paulo: -122, Draw: 235 | São Paulo win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Atlético Nacional S.A: 50 @ +100, São Paulo: -0.5 @ -130 | São Paulo -0.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2: -115, Under 2: -113 | Under 2 goals | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Sao Paulo 180% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2 23% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Sao Paulo at 180% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 45% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
São Paulo is favored narrowly due to home advantage and historical home form. However, Atlético Nacional's solid defense and the 0-0 first leg keep this match highly competitive. A close match with a likely narrow São Paulo win or a low-scoring draw seems most probable.
Predicted Score: 1-0