Match Analysis: Atlético Madrid vs Real Sociedad – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-10
• Time: 7:00 PM UTC
• Location: Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid, Spain

Game Overview

Atlético Madrid, currently 3rd in La Liga, hosts Real Sociedad, ranked 11th, in a crucial late-season match. Atlético Madrid has scored 56 goals and conceded 25 this season, showing strong scoring and defensive capability. Real Sociedad has 32 goals scored and 37 conceded, indicating a less balanced performance. Atlético Madrid is favored heavily by bookmakers and has a home advantage at their Riyadh Air Metropolitano stadium.

Key Factors to Consider

• Atlético Madrid demonstrates better form and league standing, with more goals scored (56) and fewer conceded (25) compared to Real Sociedad's 32 scored and 37 conceded. Atlético also boasts more clean sheets (15) than Real Sociedad (13), signaling a stronger defense.
• Atlético Madrid and Real Sociedad have faced each other once this season with Atlético Madrid likely having the upper hand due to their superior league position and form. Historically, Atlético tends to dominate home fixtures versus Real Sociedad.
• No specific injury data was available from the latest sources for either team ahead of the match, but Atlético Madrid is expected to field a near-full strength squad.
• The match is played at Atlético's home stadium, Riyadh Air Metropolitano, providing a familiar environment and strong fan support. Weather in Madrid is mild (~61°F) which is optimal for playing conditions.
• Atlético Madrid is fighting for a higher Champions League qualifying position, increasing motivation to secure maximum points. Real Sociedad, in mid-table, has less at stake but will look to upset the home side.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Atlético Madrid: -160, Real Sociedad: 460, Draw: 300	Atlético Madrid win	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Atlético Madrid: -0.75 (-125), Real Sociedad: +75 (105)	Atlético Madrid -0.75	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 2.5: 102, Under 2.5: -122	Under 2.5 goals	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Atlético Madrid 1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 9%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Atlético Madrid to win given superior form, home advantage, and stronger squad performance.

Predicted Score: 2-0

Match Analysis: Las Palmas vs Atlético Madrid – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-04-19
• Time: 7:00 PM UTC
• Location: Gran Canaria, Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Spain

Game Overview

This La Liga match features Las Palmas hosting Atlético Madrid. Las Palmas is struggling in the league, positioned low with 29 points from 31 games, while Atlético Madrid is third with 63 points, strongly contending for the title. Atlético's recent form includes dominant wins over Las Palmas, showcasing their superiority both home and away. Las Palmas has shown resilience but faces a tough challenge against a top-tier Atlético side who have strong attacking players and a solid defensive record.

Key Factors to Consider

• Atlético Madrid has a strong performance record with 18 wins, 9 draws, 4 losses, and a +27 goal difference. They have been consistent in scoring and attacking, led by players like J Álvarez (14 goals) and A Sørloth (12 goals). Las Palmas, by contrast, has 7 wins, 8 draws, and 16 losses, with a -15 goal difference, indicating defensive vulnerabilities and inconsistent form.
• In their last five meetings, Atlético Madrid has won 4 matches decisively, including 5-0 and 2-0 wins in the most recent encounters. Las Palmas managed a single 2-1 win in November 2023 but largely struggle against Atlético. This trend emphasizes Atlético's dominance in the fixture.
• No specific injury updates were provided in available data, but Atlético Madrid typically maintains a strong squad depth. Las Palmas may face challenges if key players are unavailable, which could further weaken their position.
• The game is played at Las Palmas' home stadium, where home advantage can be a factor, though Atlético Madrid’s superior quality often offsets this. Weather or pitch conditions were not highlighted as impacting factors.
• Atlético Madrid is motivated to secure points to remain in the title race, whereas Las Palmas is motivated to gain crucial points to avoid relegation, making it a highly motivated encounter for both sides albeit on different stakes.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Atlético Madrid: -175, Las Palmas: 460, Draw: 330	Atlético Madrid to win	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Atlético Madrid: -1 -105, Las Palmas: 1 -115	Atlético Madrid -1	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	Over 2.5: -122, Under 2.5: 102	Under 2.5 goals	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Atlético Madrid 2%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 21%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 21% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Atlético Madrid is heavily favored to win this match given their superior league position, form, and historical dominance over Las Palmas. A controlled Atlético Madrid victory is expected, though Las Palmas may try to exploit home advantage for a positive result.

Predicted Score: Atlético Madrid 2 – 0 Las Palmas

Match Analysis: Atlético Madrid vs Valladolid – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 14 Apr 2025
• Time: 7:00 PM UTC
• Location: Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid, Spain

Game Overview

Atlético Madrid, currently ranked 3rd in La Liga, hosts Real Valladolid, who are struggling in 20th position. Atlético Madrid has a strong historical advantage against Valladolid, winning 18 out of their last 27 matches. Valladolid's poor form and Atlético's solid defensive record make this a challenging fixture for the visitors.

Key Factors to Consider

• Atlético Madrid has shown consistent form this season with 17 wins, 9 draws, and 4 losses, while Real Valladolid has struggled with only 4 wins. Atlético Madrid averages 2.00 goals per match, while Valladolid averages 1.03 goals.
• Atlético Madrid leads in head-to-head matches with 18 wins to Valladolid's 5. The last few matches have seen Atlético dominate Valladolid.
• Atlético Madrid has several players missing due to injury, including Rodrigo De Paul, Angel Correa, and others. This could potentially affect their performance.
• Atlético Madrid's home advantage combined with Valladolid's poor away record could significantly influence the outcome.
• Atlético Madrid will be highly motivated to maintain their position in La Liga, while Valladolid needs points to avoid relegation.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Atlético Madrid -99%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 3.25 -99%

⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.

Predicted Outcome

Atlético Madrid is likely to win due to their strong form and historical advantage over Valladolid.

Predicted Score: Atlético Madrid 3 – 0 Real Valladolid

Match Analysis: Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-04-06
• Time: 2:15 PM UTC
• Location: Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan, Seville, Spain

Game Overview

The upcoming La Liga match between Sevilla FC and Atlético Madrid is set to pit two teams with different current standings against each other. Sevilla has been inconsistent lately, while Atlético Madrid remains strong, ranking higher in the league standings.

Key Factors to Consider

• Atlético Madrid has a stronger overall performance, sitting third in La Liga with 57 points, while Sevilla ranks 11th with 36 points. Atlético Madrid has scored more goals and conceded fewer than Sevilla.
• Historically, the most common result between them is a 1-1 draw, but Atlético Madrid has a slight edge overall in their meetings.
• Notable absences include Nianzou for Sevilla and Correa for Atlético Madrid.
• The match is crucial for both teams' league positions, but Atlético Madrid's higher league ranking might give them an edge in terms of pressure and expectations.
• Both teams are motivated, but Atlético Madrid may have more to gain in terms of maintaining their league position.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Atlético Madrid: 125, Sevilla: 235, Draw: 230	Atlético Madrid to win	★★☆☆☆ 43%
Spread	-0.25 for Atlético Madrid (-110), 25 for Sevilla (-110)	Atlético Madrid to cover	★★★☆☆ 52%
Over_under	Over 2.25: +100, Under 2.25: -120	Under 2.25	★★★☆☆ 55%

Predicted Outcome

Atlético Madrid is favored to win due to their better league position and overall performance.

Predicted Score: 0-1 in favor of Atlético Madrid

Match Analysis: Atlético Madrid vs Barcelona – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-03-16
• Time: 8:00 PM UTC
• Location: Riyadh Air Metropolitano

Game Overview

Atlético Madrid hosts FC Barcelona in a crucial La Liga match. Both teams are in strong form, with Barcelona currently second in the league and Atlético Madrid close behind.

Key Factors to Consider

• Atlético Madrid has been consistent, with a record of 16 wins, 8 draws, and 3 losses. Barcelona has been impressive as well, with 18 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses. Both teams have strong attacking forces, with Barcelona's Robert Lewandowski leading the scoring charts.
• Recent matches between the two have been closely contested. In their last five encounters, Barcelona has generally had the upper hand, but Atlético Madrid has shown resilience, especially in their recent league win against Barcelona.
• No significant injury updates are available for this match, but both teams are expected to field strong lineups.
• The match is crucial for both teams' league standings and Champions League qualification. External factors like weather and crowd support could play a role, but both teams are accustomed to high-pressure games.
• Both teams are highly motivated, with Atlético Madrid seeking to close the gap in the league and Barcelona aiming to maintain their position near the top.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Atlético Madrid: 210, Barcelona: 120, Draw: 265	Barcelona	★★★☆☆ 55%
Spread	Atlético Madrid: 25 -110, Barcelona: -0.25 -110	Barcelona -0.25	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over_under	Over 3: -110, Under 3: -110	Over 3	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Barcelona to win or draw.

Predicted Score: 2-1 in favor of Barcelona

Match Analysis: Getafe vs Atlético Madrid – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-03-09
• Time: 1:00 PM UTC
• Location: Coliseum Alfonso Pérez

Game Overview

Getafe hosts Atlético Madrid in a La Liga match where Atlético Madrid is favored due to their strong form and head-to-head record.

Key Factors to Consider

• Atlético Madrid is in excellent form, currently leading La Liga with 56 points, while Getafe is in mixed form, sitting 14th with 31 points. Atlético Madrid averages 2.14 goals per match, while Getafe averages 0.78.
• In their head-to-head matches, Atlético Madrid has dominated with 31 wins out of 46 matches, while Getafe has won only 4 times.
• No specific injury reports are available for this match.
• The match is at Getafe's home ground, which might slightly favor them, but Atlético Madrid's away performance has been strong.
• Atlético Madrid is highly motivated to maintain their lead in La Liga, while Getafe seeks to improve their standing and avoid relegation.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Atlético Madrid: 105, Getafe: 320, Draw: 215	Atlético Madrid	★★★★☆ 70%
Spread	Atlético Madrid: -0.5 105, Getafe: 50 -125	Atlético Madrid -0.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over_under	Over 2: 105, Under 2: -125	Under 2	★★★☆☆ 55%

Predicted Outcome

Atlético Madrid is likely to win due to their superior form and head-to-head record.

Predicted Score: 1-0 in favor of Atlético Madrid

Match Analysis: Atlético Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-03-01
• Time: 8:00 PM UTC
• Location: Civitas Metropolitano

Game Overview

Atlético Madrid and Athletic Bilbao face off in a crucial La Liga match. Atlético Madrid is currently third in the league with 53 points, while Athletic Bilbao is fourth with 48 points. Both teams have shown strong performances recently, with Atlético Madrid coming off a 3-0 win over Valencia and Athletic Bilbao securing a 7-1 victory over Real Valladolid.

Key Factors to Consider

• Atlético Madrid has been solid defensively, conceding only 0.6 goals per game, while Athletic Bilbao scores 1.8 goals per match. Atlético Madrid's recent form includes a draw with Barcelona and a win over Valencia, while Athletic Bilbao has had a mix of wins and draws.
• In their last meeting, Atlético Madrid won 3-1 against Athletic Bilbao. However, Athletic Bilbao has shown improvement and resilience in recent matches.
• No significant injury updates are available for this match, but both teams are expected to field strong lineups.
• The match will be played at Atlético Madrid's home stadium, which could provide an advantage. However, Athletic Bilbao's recent form and confidence from their last win might counterbalance this.
• Both teams are highly motivated, with Atlético Madrid aiming to stay in the top three and Athletic Bilbao seeking to secure a top-four spot.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Athletic Bilbao: 280, Atlético Madrid: 100, Draw: 230	Atlético Madrid	★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread	Athletic Bilbao: 0.5 -128, Atlético Madrid: -0.5 108	Atlético Madrid -0.5	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over_under	Over 2.25: -110, Under 2.25: -110	Under 2.25	★★★☆☆ 58%

Predicted Outcome

The match is expected to be closely contested, with a slight edge to Atlético Madrid due to their home advantage.

Predicted Score: 1-0 in favor of Atlético Madrid

Match Analysis: Valencia vs Atlético Madrid – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-02-22
• Time: 5:30 PM UTC
• Location: Mestalla

Game Overview

Valencia, currently 18th in LaLiga, hosts third-placed Atlético Madrid. Valencia has struggled this season, while Atlético Madrid has been consistent, with a strong defensive record.

Key Factors to Consider

• Atlético Madrid has been performing well, with 50 points from 24 games, while Valencia has only 23 points. Atlético Madrid's defense is one of the best in the league, conceding just 16 goals.
• In their last meeting, Atlético Madrid won 3-0 against Valencia. Atlético has shown dominance in recent encounters.
• No specific injury reports are available for this match.
• The match is at Valencia's home ground, which could provide some advantage, but Atlético's away form has been strong.
• Atlético Madrid is highly motivated to maintain their position in the league, while Valencia needs points to avoid relegation.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Atlético Madrid: -115, Valencia: 333, Draw: 240	Atlético Madrid	★★★★☆ 70%
Spread	Atlético Madrid: -0.5 -108, Valencia: 0.5 -112	Atlético Madrid -0.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over_under	Over 2.5: 115, Under 2.5: -150	Under 2.5	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Atlético Madrid is likely to win due to their superior form and defensive strength.

Predicted Score: 1-0 in favor of Atlético Madrid