Match Analysis: New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-14
- Time: 11:10 PM UTC
- Location: Citi Field, Queens, New York
Game Overview
The New York Mets host the Atlanta Braves with the Mets favored at home. Both teams have shown offensive power, but Mets' pitching led by Kodai Senga is stronger compared to Braves starter Bryce Elder, who has struggled significantly this season.
Key Factors to Consider
- Mets hold a better record (64-56) compared to Braves (52-68). Mets have a better pitching staff ERA (3.75) and WHIP (1.31) than Braves (4.31 ERA, 1.30 WHIP). Mets' offense is led by Juan Soto (29 HR, 69 RBI) and Pete Alonso (28 HR, 98 RBI). Braves rely on Matt Olson (71 RBI) and Marcell Ozuna (20 HR).
- Mets and Braves have split the first two games this series with high scoring outcomes. Mets led early in losses but have shown vulnerability in late innings.
- No critical injuries reported affecting starting players or pitchers for either side.
- Game played at Citi Field favors Mets who have strong home performance. Weather or other external conditions not reported as significant.
- Mets are fighting to maintain their position in the NL East and have motivation to avoid further losing streaks, despite recent slump. Braves have less overall to play for given record but can exploit Mets’ recent pitching drop.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Mets -196, Braves +164 | New York Mets | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Spread | Mets -1.5 (+108), Braves +1.5 (-130) | New York Mets -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Over/under | Over 8.5 (-115), Under 8.5 (-105) | Over 8.5 runs | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | New York Mets -6% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 8.5 8% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 8.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
New York Mets to win moneyline, cover runline, with game total over 8.5 runs.
Predicted Score: New York Mets 6, Atlanta Braves 4