Match Analysis: Ateba Gautier vs Robert Valentin – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-07-19
• Time: 12:15 AM UTC
• Location: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans

Game Overview

Middleweight bout at UFC 318 featuring Ateba Gautier, a 23-year-old switch fighter with a 7-1 record, against the more experienced 30-year-old orthodox fighter Robert Valentin holding an 11-5 record. Gautier is significantly favored with better striking volume, accuracy, and defense.

Key Factors to Consider

• Ateba Gautier boasts a high striking output at 6.06 significant strikes per minute with 64% accuracy and superior defense absorbing 2.23 strikes per minute with 51% strike defense. Robert Valentin has a lower striking rate at 1.10 per minute, 58% accuracy, and weaker defense allowing 2.11 strikes per minute and curbing only 23%. Recent form heavily favors Gautier at 7-1 versus Valentin's 11-5.
• No prior head-to-head encounters found, implying no psychological advantage or matchup data to alter expected outcomes.
• No injury reports or concerns surfaced for either fighter, indicating both will compete at full capacity.
• Fight takes place in New Orleans' Smoothie King Center, neutral venue with no significant external factors favoring either fighter. Both are motivated equally by career progression and pay-per-view exposure.
• Gautier, younger and on a strong winning trajectory with a high finish rate, is highly motivated to establish dominance. Valentin aims to upset a rising star, but recent results and rankings put Gautier at an advantage psychologically and tactically.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Ateba Gautier -550, Robert Valentin +410	Ateba Gautier	★★★★☆ 82%
Spread	Ateba Gautier -3.5 (-370), Robert Valentin +3.5 (+250)	Ateba Gautier -3.5	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	Over 1.5 (+120), Under 1.5 (-154)	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Ateba Gautier -8%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 15%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 23.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Ateba Gautier wins by knockout or TKO early in the fight, delivering a dominant performance over Robert Valentin.

Predicted Score: Ateba Gautier wins by KO/TKO at round 1

Match Analysis: Jose Daniel Medina vs Ateba Gautier – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-03-29
• Time: 10:25 PM UTC
• Location: Arena CDMX, Mexico City

Game Overview

This bout at UFC on ESPN 64 pits Jose Daniel Medina against Ateba Gautier in a middleweight matchup. Medina, with a record of 11-4, faces the less experienced but powerful Gautier, who boasts a 6-1 record. The fight promises an intriguing clash of styles as Medina's ground game faces off against Gautier's striking prowess.

Key Factors to Consider

• Medina's MMA experience includes several knockout wins, but he recently lost by decision to Zachary Reese. Gautier, known for his powerful striking, secured a recent TKO victory over Yura Naito, showcasing his potential as a formidable opponent.
• There is no previous meeting between these two fighters, but their contrasting styles could lead to an engaging bout. Medina's ground skills might face a challenge in Gautier's defensive capabilities.
• No reported injuries for either fighter ahead of the match.
• The fight takes place at high altitude (Mexico City), which could affect cardio performance, potentially impacting Gautier more due to his past issues with stamina during fights.
• Both fighters seek a win to boost their profiles in the UFC. Medina aims for his first UFC victory, while Gautier makes his official UFC debut.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-440 for Ateba Gautier / 340 for Jose Daniel Medina	Ateba Gautier	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Ateba Gautier -3.5 / Jose Daniel Medina +3.5	Ateba Gautier -3.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over_under	Over 1.5 (-166) / Under 1.5 (130)	Over 1.5	★★★★☆ 70%

Predicted Outcome

Ateba Gautier is favored to win due to his striking speed and power, although his cardio issues and Medina's durability could pose challenges in a potentially grueling fight.

Predicted Score: Gautier via TKO or Decision

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Raul Rosas Jr vs. Vince Morales Prediction	Raul Rosas Jr Win	-485	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)
Jose Daniel Medina vs. Ateba Gautier Prediction	Ateba Gautier Win	-440	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)
Theodor Berggren vs. Leonardo Damiani Prediction	Theodor Berggren Win	-170	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +135

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $47.02