Match Analysis: Yanis Ghemmouri vs Assem Ghanem – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-27
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: The Arena, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Game Overview
Featherweight semifinal fight in PFL MENA 3 between Yanis Ghemmouri and Assem Ghanem, two undefeated featherweight fighters competing in a high-stakes matchup.
Key Factors to Consider
- Yanis Ghemmouri holds a 12-3 professional record with a versatile finish rate including decisions, submissions, and KOs. Assem Ghanem is undefeated at 5-0, showing strong grappling and decision skills but less experience overall.
- This will be their first meeting; no previous head-to-head data exists.
- No current injury reports for either fighter but recent development shows Assem Ghanem missed the official featherweight limit on weigh-in day, potentially impacting performance negatively.
- Fight takes place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, a neutral location; Ghanem’s weight miss might cause physical and psychological disadvantages. Ghemmouri fights out of France with more international experience.
- Both fighters are highly motivated for PFL MENA semifinals, but Ghemmouri’s greater experience at high-level bouts and Ghanem’s weight miss suggest a slight edge in mental and physical preparedness for Ghemmouri.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ghemmouri: -164, Ghanem: +120 | Yanis Ghemmouri | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Ghemmouri -1.5 (-110) | Ghemmouri -1.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds (-115), Under 2.5 rounds (-105) | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Yanis Ghemmouri -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Yanis Ghemmouri at -3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Yanis Ghemmouri to win on the moneyline
Predicted Score: Yanis Ghemmouri wins by late-round submission or decision