Match Analysis: Vincius Pires vs Artem Belakh – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 14-15, 2025
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Mashantucket, Connecticut
Game Overview
LFA 222 Bantamweight Championship title fight between undefeated prospect Vinicius Pires (11-1) and Artem Belakh (10-2). This is a 5-round championship bout at 135 lbs. Pires is a heavy favorite at -250 moneyline, reflecting his superior record and recent form. Belakh is making his LFA debut after being released from another promotion.
Key Factors to Consider
- Pires enters with an 11-1 record and is significantly favored. He is an aggressive volume striker with kicks at all levels but has weak wrestling. Belakh carries a 10-2 record and poor striking defense with durability concerns from significant weight cuts. Pires maintains superior cardio, a critical advantage in a 5-round title fight.
- No previous head-to-head history between these fighters. This is their first matchup.
- No injuries reported for either fighter.
- Belakh is fighting in the LFA for the first time after being released, indicating he may be rebuilding his career. The 5-round championship format favors Pires' superior cardio. Belakh's poor weight cut conditioning becomes increasingly problematic over extended rounds.
- Pires is fighting for a title with momentum as an undefeated prospect. Belakh faces significant pressure as a newcomer to LFA competing in a championship bout, which may disadvantage him psychologically.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Pires -250 / Belakh +185 | Vinicius Pires | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds -120 / Under 2.5 rounds -155 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Draw -100% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 2% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Vinicius Pires wins by decision. The 5-round format, Pires' superior cardio, aggressive striking volume, and Belakh's durability concerns create a scenario where Pires controls 3-4 rounds en route to a clear decision victory.
Predicted Score: Vinicius Pires by Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 50-45) – Fight extends to decision with Pires dominating the striking exchanges across all five rounds, utilizing superior cardio and volume striking to outlast Belakh.