Match Analysis: David Allen vs Arslanbek Makhmudov – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-11
• Time: 9:00 PM UTC
• Location: Sheffield Arena, Sheffield, United Kingdom

Game Overview

Heavyweight bout between British fan-favorite Dave Allen and hard-hitting Arslanbek Makhmudov. Both are orthodox fighters with high knockout rates, but Makhmudov holds significant size and reach advantages. The fight is scheduled for 12 rounds, with no weight limit, and will be broadcast live on DAZN worldwide[1][2].

Key Factors to Consider

• Makhmudov boasts a higher knockout percentage (95% vs. Allen’s 79%) and a slightly superior record (20-2-0 vs. 24-7-2), but has fought fewer total rounds, suggesting a lower workrate and possibly less experience in deep waters. Allen has more ring miles and is ranked #8 by the WBA[2].
• No previous meetings between the two. Makhmudov’s power is the X-factor, while Allen’s experience and grit in tough fights could be decisive if he survives the early onslaught[2].
• No public injury reports for either fighter. Both appear to be healthy going into the bout.
• Home crowd advantage for Allen at Sheffield, but he’s considered the underdog by the oddsmakers. The fight is live on DAZN, which could motivate both to put on a show[1][2].
• Allen is seeking to prove he belongs with top heavyweights in possibly his last big domestic opportunity. Makhmudov is aiming to reassert himself after recent setbacks and boost his profile internationally[2].

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Makhmudov -105, Allen -125	Makhmudov to win	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 6.5 -125, Under 6.5 -105	Under 6.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Arslanbek Makhmudov 7%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 6.5 17%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 6.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Makhmudov enters as the favorite due to power and physical advantages, but Allen’s toughness, experience, and home crowd could make this closer than the odds suggest. Bookmakers give Makhmudov a 53% chance and Allen a 47% chance, showing only a slight edge for the Russian[1]. Expect a violent, competitive fight, but Makhmudov’s early power is the likeliest decisive factor.

Predicted Score: Makhmudov wins by TKO/KO in rounds 4-6[2]

Match Analysis: Arslanbek Makhmudov vs Ricardo Brown – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-27
• Time: 11:00 PM UTC
• Location: Centre Videotron, Quebec City, Canada

Game Overview

The heavyweight boxing match between Arslanbek Makhmudov and undefeated Ricardo Brown represents a key showdown with significant career implications for both fighters. The bout is scheduled for June 27, 2025, at the Centre Videotron in Quebec City. Makhmudov, with a professional record of 19-2, faces Brown, who holds an undefeated 12-0 record with 11 knockouts, making this a compelling contest between experience and rising talent.

Key Factors to Consider

• Arslanbek Makhmudov has a strong professional record with 19 wins and 2 losses, showing resilience and skill in heavyweight boxing. Ricardo Brown is undefeated at 12-0, boasting a high knockout rate, demonstrating power and finishing ability. Both fighters have shown strong performances recently, with Brown particularly noted for his undefeated streak and high KO ratio.
• There is no prior head-to-head history between Arslanbek Makhmudov and Ricardo Brown, making this their first professional encounter.
• No reports of injuries affecting either fighter have been noted ahead of the match.
• The fight takes place in Quebec City, Canada, likely providing a home advantage for Arslanbek Makhmudov who is Montreal-based. Ricardo Brown is traveling in to defend his undefeated record, possibly facing challenges related to environment and crowd.
• Both fighters have strong motivation—Makhmudov aims to reassert himself among heavyweights after two losses, while Brown looks to extend his undefeated streak and make a significant statement in the heavyweight division.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Arslanbek Makhmudov: -255, Ricardo Brown: 195	Arslanbek Makhmudov	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Not explicitly provided; expect a spread favoring Makhmudov by approximately -1.5 rounds based on odds	Makhmudov to win by knockout or clear decision margin	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	Not explicitly provided; typical for heavyweight over/under rounds line at around 6.5 rounds	Under 6.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Arslanbek Makhmudov -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Arslanbek Makhmudov at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given Arslanbek Makhmudov's experience and home advantage against Ricardo Brown's undefeated streak and knockout power, the fight is expected to be competitive. However, Makhmudov's slightly favored odds and local support suggest a prediction in favor of Makhmudov to win the match.

Predicted Score: Arslanbek Makhmudov wins by KO in Round 5

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Christian Mbilli vs. Maciej Sulecki Prediction	Mbilli -2.5 rounds	-110	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)
Arslanbek Makhmudov vs. Ricardo Brown Prediction	Arslanbek Makhmudov Win	-255	★★★★☆ 72% (72%)
Leila Beaudoin vs. Elhem Mekhaled Prediction	Over 8.5 rounds	-115	★★★☆☆ 65% (65%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +397

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $99.38