Match Analysis: Arkansas Razorbacks vs Arkansas State Red Wolves – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-06
• Time: 9:00 PM UTC
• Location: War Memorial Stadium

Game Overview

The Arkansas Razorbacks host the Arkansas State Red Wolves in Week 2 of the 2025 NCAAF season. Both teams enter undefeated at 1-0, but Arkansas is a heavy favorite given its stronger program, home field, and recent dominance in the matchup.

Key Factors to Consider

• Arkansas is 1-0 with strong defensive capabilities and a more proven offense, while Arkansas State is also 1-0 but against a weaker opponent. Arkansas State showed scoring ability but also had ball security issues. Arkansas' offense is projected to outscore Arkansas State significantly.
• Arkansas has historically dominated Arkansas State in recent matchups, often winning by large margins, contributing to a psychological edge and confidence in covering large spreads.
• No significant injury reports are currently available for either team impacting this matchup.
• The game is played at War Memorial Stadium with Arkansas as the home team, providing them a notable home-field advantage. Arkansas State will face travel and venue challenges.
• Arkansas, aiming to assert its dominance early and maintain momentum as a top program, has higher motivation to decisively win. Arkansas State may be motivated to prove competitive but lacks the depth and talent to keep pace.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Arkansas -2400 / Arkansas State +1200	Arkansas Razorbacks	★★★★☆ 88%
Spread	Arkansas -23.5 (-112) / Arkansas State +23.5 (-108)	Arkansas Razorbacks -23.5	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	Over 62.5 (-110) / Under 62.5 (-110)	Under 62.5	★★★☆☆ 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Arkansas Razorbacks -7%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 62.5 30%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 62.5 at 30% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 32.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Arkansas Razorbacks to win straight up, cover the large -23.5 spread, and the total score to go under 62.5 points.

Predicted Score: Arkansas Razorbacks 31 – Arkansas State Red Wolves 14

Match Analysis: Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Southeast Missouri State Redhawks – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-30
• Time: 11:00 PM UTC
• Location: Centennial Bank Stadium, Jonesboro, AR

Game Overview

Arkansas State Red Wolves host Southeast Missouri State Redhawks in an opening game where Arkansas State’s experience and balance on offense contrast with Southeast Missouri State’s uncertain quarterback situation and defensive turnover.

Key Factors to Consider

• Arkansas State has a balanced and more experienced offense led by proven QB Jaylen Raynor, with a strong offensive line. Southeast Missouri State replaces a high-performing QB and top defensive tacklers, suggesting possible transitional challenges.
• Arkansas State has a historical dominance in home games against non-FBS opponents, winning their last eight such games. Direct head-to-head recent data is limited due to team schedules and conference differences.
• No major current injuries reported for either team that impact key positional depth, but Southeast Missouri State’s defensive and offensive unit is less experienced entering this season.
• Game played at Arkansas State’s home stadium grants a home-field advantage factor. Timing and early season dynamics favor the team with better offseason continuity, here being Arkansas State.
• Arkansas State motivated to start the season strong at home and continue dominance against smaller conference opponents; Southeast Missouri State must find offensive identity amid QB change, possibly lowering confidence early in the season.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Arkansas State -365 / Southeast Missouri State +285	Arkansas State Red Wolves	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Arkansas State -10.5 (-110) / Southeast Missouri State +10.5 (-110)	Arkansas State -10.5	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 59.5 -110 / Under 59.5 -110	Over 59.5	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Arkansas State Red Wolves -4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 59.5 18%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 59.5 at 18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Arkansas State to win moneyline and cover the -10.5 spread, with the total scoring going over 59.5 points.

Predicted Score: Arkansas State 38 – Southeast Missouri State 24

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Southeast Missouri State Redhawks Prediction	Arkansas State Red Wolves Win	-365	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
Texas State Bobcats vs. Eastern Michigan Eagles Prediction	Texas State Bobcats -13.5	-115	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Austin Peay Governors Prediction	Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Win	-310	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +215

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $63