Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Southeast Missouri State Redhawks Prediction NCAAF in American Football
Match Analysis: Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Southeast Missouri State Redhawks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-30
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Centennial Bank Stadium, Jonesboro, AR
Game Overview
Arkansas State Red Wolves host Southeast Missouri State Redhawks in an opening game where Arkansas State’s experience and balance on offense contrast with Southeast Missouri State’s uncertain quarterback situation and defensive turnover.
Key Factors to Consider
- Arkansas State has a balanced and more experienced offense led by proven QB Jaylen Raynor, with a strong offensive line. Southeast Missouri State replaces a high-performing QB and top defensive tacklers, suggesting possible transitional challenges.
- Arkansas State has a historical dominance in home games against non-FBS opponents, winning their last eight such games. Direct head-to-head recent data is limited due to team schedules and conference differences.
- No major current injuries reported for either team that impact key positional depth, but Southeast Missouri State’s defensive and offensive unit is less experienced entering this season.
- Game played at Arkansas State’s home stadium grants a home-field advantage factor. Timing and early season dynamics favor the team with better offseason continuity, here being Arkansas State.
- Arkansas State motivated to start the season strong at home and continue dominance against smaller conference opponents; Southeast Missouri State must find offensive identity amid QB change, possibly lowering confidence early in the season.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arkansas State -365 / Southeast Missouri State +285 | Arkansas State Red Wolves | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Arkansas State -10.5 (-110) / Southeast Missouri State +10.5 (-110) | Arkansas State -10.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 59.5 -110 / Under 59.5 -110 | Over 59.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arkansas State Red Wolves -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 59.5 18% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 59.5 at 18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Arkansas State to win moneyline and cover the -10.5 spread, with the total scoring going over 59.5 points.
Predicted Score: Arkansas State 38 – Southeast Missouri State 24