Match Analysis: Arkansas St Red Wolves vs Jacksonville St Gamecocks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-25
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: First National Bank Arena, Jonesboro, AR
Game Overview
This matchup features the Arkansas State Red Wolves hosting the Jacksonville State Gamecocks in a non-conference NCAA men's basketball game. Both teams are coming off recent losses, with Arkansas State having lost by 31 points in their last outing and Jacksonville State suffering a close defeat to South Alabama. The game is set for a 7:00 PM local time tip-off at First National Bank Arena, with ESPN+ providing live coverage.
Key Factors to Consider
- Jacksonville State enters the game with a strong offensive profile, averaging 92.5 points per game (PPG) and 44.5 rebounds per game (RPG), while allowing 60.0 PPG defensively. Arkansas State is averaging 79.3 PPG and 35.2 RPG, but has struggled defensively, allowing 85.3 PPG. Jacksonville State's offense is led by Mostapha El Moutaouakkil (22.3 PPG), while Arkansas State's top scorer is Joey Chammaa (19.0 PPG).
- Recent head-to-head data is not available in the provided sources, but both teams have faced similar competition levels. Jacksonville State has shown dominance in recent games, while Arkansas State has struggled, especially on defense.
- Jalen Hampton (Arkansas State, #12 – G) is listed as having a concussion and played limited minutes in the last game, ending with 3 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 steals in 16 minutes. His status for this game is uncertain, which could impact Arkansas State's backcourt depth.
- The game is being played at Arkansas State's home venue, First National Bank Arena, which may provide a slight home-court advantage. However, Jacksonville State has shown the ability to win on the road and has a strong offensive output.
- Jacksonville State is looking to bounce back from a recent loss and continue their strong offensive performance. Arkansas State is motivated to avoid another blowout loss and improve their defensive record after a series of tough games.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arkansas St Red Wolves: -155, Jacksonville St Gamecocks: 130 | Jacksonville St Gamecocks | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Arkansas St Red Wolves: -2.5, Jacksonville St Gamecocks: 2.5 | Jacksonville St Gamecocks | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over: 148.5, Under: 148.5 | Over | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jacksonville St Gamecocks 40% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 148.5 22% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Jacksonville St Gamecocks at 40% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 31% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Jacksonville State is favored to win this game due to their superior offensive output and recent form. Arkansas State's defensive struggles and potential injury concerns with Jalen Hampton further tilt the odds in Jacksonville State's favor. The game is expected to be high-scoring, with Jacksonville State likely to cover the spread.
Predicted Score: Jacksonville State 90, Arkansas State 82