Mississippi State Bulldogs and Arizona State Sun Devils both enter 1-0, with Arizona State favored on the road by 6.5 points in this Week 2 SEC vs Pac-12 matchup.
Key Factors to Consider
Both teams started 1-0; Mississippi State defeated Southern Miss convincingly in the second half, showing improved run defense and efficient QB play. Arizona State handled an FCS opponent with a less dominant margin and had 12 penalties in their opener.
This is only the second meeting; Arizona State won last season at home by 7 points. Mississippi State holds a strong track record against ranked teams and SEC opponents.
No major injury concerns reported for either team impacting key players.
Game played at Mississippi State's home stadium with moderate weather (80°F, 51% rain chance, 7 mph wind). Home environment favors Bulldogs.
Mississippi State looks motivated to avenge last year's loss and defend home turf. Arizona State aims to assert Pac-12 strength but has struggled on SEC road trips historically.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
home: +200, away: -245
Mississippi State
★★★☆☆ 62%
Spread
home: +6.5 -110, away: -6.5 -110
Mississippi State +6.5
★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under
over: 58.5 -115, under: 58.5 -105
Under 58.5
★★★☆☆ 60%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Arizona State Sun Devils 80%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 58.5 7%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Arizona State Sun Devils at 80% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 40% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Take Mississippi State +6.5 spread cover due to home advantage, improved defense, and historical difficulty for Arizona State on SEC road games.
Predicted Score: Mississippi State 24 – Arizona State 27
Season opener between FBS top-tier Arizona State Sun Devils and FCS Northern Arizona Lumberjacks, with ASU heavily favored at home.
Key Factors to Consider
Arizona State finished last season with an 11-3 record, Big 12 co-champions, and College Football Playoff appearance. Northern Arizona ended 8-5, strong in Big Sky Conference but a lower-tier FCS team.
No recent direct matchups; Arizona State dominates in program stature and resources.
Arizona State missing key RB Skattebo, but starting QB Leavitt and main receivers healthy. Northern Arizona has solid returning offense but some turnover in secondary.
Home advantage for Arizona State at a familiar stadium; warm 96°F weather with no rain forecasted; no wind.
Arizona State motivated to start strong after playoff run, Northern Arizona aiming to prove competitiveness versus FBS opponent.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Arizona State Sun Devils: -10000, Northern Arizona Lumberjacks: +3000
Arizona State Sun Devils
★★★★★ 95%
Spread
Arizona State Sun Devils: -28.5 -115, Northern Arizona Lumberjacks: +28.5 -105
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks +28.5
★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under
Over 52.5: -110, Under 52.5: -110
Over 52.5
★★★☆☆ 60%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Arizona State Sun Devils -5%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 52.5 11%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 52.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Arizona State to win decisively but Northern Arizona to cover the large spread. Over/Under to hit slightly above set line.
Predicted Score: Arizona State Sun Devils 31 – Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 17