Match Analysis: Talita Alencar vs Ariane Carnelossi – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-01
• Time: 8:10 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada

Game Overview

Talita Alencar and Ariane Carnelossi face off at UFC Vegas 110 in the women’s strawweight division. Alencar is a strong grappler with a solid record (6-1-1), known for high takedown defense and striking accuracy, while Carnelossi (15-3-0) brings more UFC experience and Muay Thai striking prowess but has shown some decline in recent activity and defensive metrics.

Key Factors to Consider

• Alencar demonstrates higher defensive efficiency, absorbing fewer strikes per minute (3.77 vs. 4.74) and better strike deflection (53% to 45%), though Carnelossi has slightly higher significant strike output and finishing ability in the UFC.
• No previous direct matchups between Alencar and Carnelossi.
• No publicly reported injuries for either fighter leading up to the bout.
• Fight taking place at a familiar UFC Apex venue with no notable travel or environmental concerns affecting either fighter.
• Both fighters are motivated: Alencar to prove her dominance in her UFC tenure, Carnelossi aiming to reestablish momentum after limited activity and some losses to top contenders.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Talita Alencar: -225, Ariane Carnelossi: +185	Talita Alencar	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Talita Alencar -3.5: +100, Ariane Carnelossi +3.5: -135	Talita Alencar -3.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -230, Under 2.5 rounds: +175	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Talita Alencar -2%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 -14%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Talita Alencar at -2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Talita Alencar to win on the moneyline by decision or submission, maintaining control with superior defense and grappling.

Predicted Score: Talita Alencar wins by decision after three competitive rounds