Match Analysis: Aqib Fiaz vs Alex Murphy – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-05
- Time: 6:30 PM UTC
- Location: Manchester Arena, Manchester
Game Overview
Aqib Fiaz faces Alex Murphy in a 10-round lightweight boxing match at Manchester Arena. Fiaz holds a slight edge in experience and power, with a professional record of 13-1 and 15% KO rate, compared to Murphy's 13-1 with no KOs. Murphy is younger by one year and has a 2-inch height advantage. Both fight orthodox and the bout appears on the undercard of the Jack Catterall vs Harlem Eubank event.
Key Factors to Consider
- Fiaz is known for aggressive pacing and stamina that overwhelms opponents mid-fight; he has competed in more rounds (85) than Murphy (76). Murphy, despite less power, is confident and motivated, having accepted the fight on short notice and eager to prove himself.
- No direct past encounters between Fiaz and Murphy to date. Both have similar overall records and experience.
- No reported injuries or fitness concerns for either fighter ahead of the match.
- Fight held at home venue for Fiaz (Manchester Arena), giving him potential home crowd support. Murphy took the fight on 11 days' notice, showing determination but less preparation time.
- Murphy's motivation is heightened by the short notice opportunity and desire to prove himself. Fiaz aims to leverage experience and power to secure a decisive win.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Aqib Fiaz: -125, Alex Murphy: 100 | Aqib Fiaz | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Fiaz -1.5 rounds: -110, Murphy +1.5 rounds: -110 | Fiaz -1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 8.5 rounds: -120, Under 8.5 rounds: 100 | Under 8.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Aqib Fiaz 4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Aqib Fiaz at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Aqib Fiaz is favored to win by decision or late-round stoppage due to greater experience, stamina, and slight power advantage, despite Murphy's height and youth advantages and strong motivation.
Predicted Score: Fiaz wins by decision or late stoppage around round 8-10