The Round 8 NRL clash between Melbourne Storm and South Sydney Rabbitohs is set at AAMI Park on Anzac Day. Melbourne Storm are coming off strong recent performances with key players returning from injury, while South Sydney face some injuries but remain competitive. The Storm are slight favorites due to home advantage and squad depth.
Key Factors to Consider
Melbourne Storm have been performing solidly, highlighted by Nick Meaney's return and Kane Bradley's recent try-scoring form. South Sydney Rabbitohs have shown resilience but are weakened by multiple injuries affecting key positions.
Historically, Melbourne Storm have had the upper hand in recent encounters, with the predictive model granting Storm an 84% winning probability over Rabbitohs at this venue. Their home form and consistency contribute significantly to this dominance.
Melbourne Storm will miss Jack Howarth (dislocated shoulder) and Tui Kamikamica (ankle sprain). Nick Meaney returns from facial fracture. Harry Grant is out with hamstring strain, expected back in mid-May. Rabbitohs face absences including Bayleigh Bentley-Hape, Declan Casey, Jayden Sullivan, Salesi Ataata, and Thomas Fletcher, with Lachlan Hubner returning.
The match is played at Melbourne's home ground AAMI Park, providing a familiar environment and crowd support. The match day being Anzac Day may add emotional intensity. Weather and pitch conditions are normal and no unusual disruptions are expected.
Melbourne Storm aim to continue their strong season momentum and capitalize on home advantage. South Sydney Rabbitohs seek to upset the odds despite injury setbacks, motivated by rivalry and the prestige of an Anzac Day fixture.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Melbourne Storm: -480, South Sydney Rabbitohs: 340
Melbourne Storm
★★★★☆ 84%
Spread
Storm -14.5: 1.91, Rabbitohs +14.5: 1.91
Storm to cover -14.5 point spread
★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under
Over 47.5: -118, Under 47.5: -106
Over 47.5 points
★★★☆☆ 60%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Melbourne Storm 2%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 47.5 11%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 47.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Melbourne Storm are predicted to win comfortably based on their current form, home advantage, and superior squad fitness.
Predicted Score: Melbourne Storm 28 – South Sydney Rabbitohs 14
Location: Apollo Projects Stadium, Christchurch, NZ
Game Overview
The match between the New Zealand Warriors and Newcastle Knights is scheduled for Round 8 of the NRL Premiership, with the Warriors currently positioned higher in the standings. The Warriors have a strong home advantage playing in New Zealand.
Key Factors to Consider
The Warriors are currently 4th in the standings, while the Knights are 14th. The Warriors have shown more consistent team performance in recent matches.
Historically, the Warriors have had mixed results against the Knights, but their recent form suggests an advantage.
There is limited information available about current injuries affecting the match outcome.
Playing in Christchurch provides the Warriors with a home advantage and potentially supportive crowd.
Both teams are motivated, but the Warriors face greater pressure to maintain their position in the standings.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
home: -295, away: 225
Warriors
★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under
over: -112 (44.5), under: -112 (44.5)
Over 44.5
★★★☆☆ 55%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
New Zealand Warriors 7%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 44.5 -1%
🔥 Best Value Pick: New Zealand Warriors at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The Warriors are likely to dominate this match due to their current form and home advantage.
The ANZAC Round match between the Sydney Roosters and St George Illawarra Dragons promises to be a competitive affair. Both teams will be highly motivated for the occasion.
Key Factors to Consider
Sydney Roosters have shown strong form recently and are favored to win. St George Illawarra Dragons will need to improve their performance to challenge the Roosters.
The head-to-head statistics might slightly favor the Roosters, but recent matchups have been closely contested.
Injury updates are crucial; however, specific details are not provided here. Generally, fewer injuries could boost a team's chances.
The ANZAC Round commemoration could add motivational factors for both teams.
Both teams are highly motivated due to the ANZAC Day significance and the desire to improve their standings in the league.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
-132 (Sydney Roosters), 106 (St George Illawarra Dragons)
Sydney Roosters
★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under
Over 44.5: -112, Under 44.5: -112
Under
★★★☆☆ 55%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Sydney Roosters 14%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 44.5 10%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Sydney Roosters at 14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Sydney Roosters are likely to win based on their current form and home advantage.
Predicted Score: Sydney Roosters 22, St George Illawarra Dragons 18
The Los Angeles Angels host the Pittsburgh Pirates in this MLB regular season matchup. The Pirates are coming off a 3-0 shutout win over the Angels on April 23, 2025, where their pitching dominated and Oneil Cruz hit a 463-foot home run. The Angels, despite a strong pitching display from Andrew Heaney who retired the first 13 batters and struck out 9 over 6 innings, have struggled offensively against the Pirates, scoring zero runs in the last meeting. The Pirates have a 10-15 overall record and are 4-8 on the road, while the Angels hold an 11-12 record and have been solid at home with a 4-4 record.
Key Factors to Consider
The Angels have shown decent home form but have failed to score in their last encounter with the Pirates due to effective Pittsburgh pitching. The Pirates, though struggling overall, have managed to shut out the Angels recently and showed resilience on the road with key offensive contributions from players like Oneil Cruz.
In the most recent matchup on April 23, 2025, the Pirates defeated the Angels 3-0 behind dominant pitching including a 6-inning shutout performance by Andrew Heaney (Angels' pitcher) that ironically did not translate into runs from his team. The Pirates have had the Angels' number this season so far.
No major injury updates or absences were reported for either team going into this game, indicating both teams should be at near full strength.
The game being played at the Angels' home ballpark, Angel Stadium in Anaheim, CA, provides a slight home advantage. Weather and other external conditions were not reported to be a significant factor as of now.
The Angels are motivated to respond quickly after their shutout loss and maintain competitiveness in the home stand. The Pirates look to build on their recent success against the Angels and improve their below .500 record by continuing their recent dominant pitching and opportunistic hitting.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Los Angeles Angels: -144, Pittsburgh Pirates: 122
Los Angeles Angels
★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread
Los Angeles Angels -1.5: 136, Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5: -164
Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5
★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under
Over 8.5: -122, Under 8.5: 100
Under 8.5
★★★★☆ 75%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Los Angeles Angels 4%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 8.5 20%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Based on recent performance data, pitching matchups, and home advantage, the Pirates present a strong chance to win again, but the Angels are likely to score better at home. The game is expected to be low-scoring and closely contested.
Predicted Score: Los Angeles Angels 3 – Pittsburgh Pirates 2
Crucial Group G match where Cerro Porteño seeks to extend their unbeaten home run in Libertadores (6 games), while Sporting Cristal aims to overcome historical struggles against the hosts.
Key Factors to Consider
Cerro Porteño recently regained confidence with a league win, while Sporting Cristal arrives with potential injury concerns[1]. Cerro boasts a formidable home record (4W-2D in last 6 Libertadores home matches)[4].
Cerro Porteño remains undefeated in Libertadores against Cristal (2W-2D), including a 1-0 home win in 2023[4]. Historical dominance includes a 5-0 victory in 1973[4].
Sporting Cristal reportedly arrives 'herido' (injured/wounded)[1], though specific player absences aren't detailed.
Cerro's recent league struggles contrast with their Copa focus after exiting Apertura title race[1]. Cristal becomes the 10th team to reach 250 Libertadores matches[4].
High stakes for group positioning, with Cerro needing home wins and Cristal seeking to prove continental pedigree.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
CER: -135 | SCR: 370 | Draw: 255
Cerro Porteño Moneyline
★★★★☆ 70%
Spread
CER -0.75 (-108) | SCR +75 (-122)
Cerro Porteño -0.75
★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under
Over 2.25 (-108) | Under 2.25 (-122)
Under 2.25 Goals
★★★☆☆ 60%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Cerro Porteño 1%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 2.25 0%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Cerro Porteño at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Home advantage and historical dominance favor Cerro Porteño in a tight match, though goal difference suggests defensive caution.
The CONMEBOL Copa Libertadores Group F clash between Bahia and Atlético Nacional is set to take place at Arena Fonte Nova. Both teams are contending fiercely in the group, with Bahia currently ranked 2nd and Atlético Nacional 3rd. Recent matches show competitive balance with both teams having scored and conceded similar goals. Key players to watch include Bahia's Jean Lucas and Atlético Nacional's A. Morelos, both with 1 goal so far in the group stage.
Key Factors to Consider
Bahia has scored 2 goals and conceded 2 in the group, maintaining 4 clean sheets in recent matches, showing defensive solidity. Atlético Nacional has scored 3 and conceded 3 with fewer clean sheets but higher shots on goal, indicating a more attacking style. Bahia has home advantage playing at Arena Fonte Nova.
Previous encounters show tight matches with no decisive dominance by either team, though away matches have been challenging for both sides. Recent form indicates balanced competition within Group F.
No specific injury data was available, suggesting both teams are likely close to full strength.
Playing in Salvador gives Bahia home crowd advantage. Weather or pitch conditions are not reported as an issue. Both teams are motivated by group standings and advancement prospects.
Bahia, positioned 2nd in Group F, aims to consolidate their standing with a home win, while Atlético Nacional, sitting 3rd, need to gain points away to improve their qualification chances, adding to competitive intensity.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Bahia: -120, Atlético Nacional: 320, Draw: 245
Bahia win
★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread
Bahia: -0.5 -120, Atlético Nacional: +50 -110
Bahia to cover -0.5 spread
★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under
Over 2.25: -122, Under 2.25: -108
Under 2.25 goals
★★★☆☆ 58%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Bahia -5%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 2.25 12%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Considering the home advantage, Bahia’s defensive record, and slightly better recent form, Bahia is favored to win narrowly. Expect a competitive match with limited goal margin.