Match Analysis: UNLV Rebels vs New Mexico Lobos – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-04-18
• Time: 1:00 AM UTC
• Location: Earl E. Wilson Stadium, Las Vegas, NV

Game Overview

The UNLV Rebels will host the New Mexico Lobos for the second game of their three-game Mountain West conference baseball series. This is a crucial matchup following New Mexico's sweep of UNLV in Albuquerque earlier in the season. UNLV is aiming to regain momentum on home turf after a tough start in conference play, while New Mexico seeks to extend their winning streak and assert dominance in the rivalry.

Key Factors to Consider

• UNLV has demonstrated strong individual performances, notably from Cole Koniarsky (.378 AVG) and Dean Toigo (.377 AVG), who rank highly in Mountain West stats. Their pitching staff has highs and lows, with Carson Lane posting a 3.28 ERA and 56 strikeouts, and Mercurius showing capability with a recent complete game shutout. New Mexico's offense is led by Jordy Oriach, who leads the Mountain West with a .391 batting average, 11 HRs, and 43 RBIs, highlighting their potent offensive threat. The Lobos also come off a strong offensive series against Washington State, scoring 49 runs in three games.
• Historically, New Mexico holds a slight edge with a 104-93 overall series lead. Recently, New Mexico swept UNLV in their March 14-16 series in Albuquerque. However, UNLV enters this series on a three-game winning streak against New Mexico from prior matchups before this season.
• No specific injuries have been reported for either team leading into the game, suggesting both sides will likely field their best available rosters.
• The game is played at UNLV's home stadium, Earl E. Wilson Stadium, which could confer a home-field advantage. The series features promotional events such as Rebelmania Night, which might boost UNLV's energy and fan support.
• UNLV is motivated to bounce back from their recent sweep loss to New Mexico and regain momentum in Mountain West play. The Rebels also seek to defend their home turf and maintain competitiveness in the conference race. New Mexico aims to maintain their winning momentum and establish control of the rivalry after recent successes.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	New Mexico Lobos: -110, UNLV Rebels: -120	UNLV Rebels	★★★☆☆ 62%
Spread	UNLV Rebels: -1.5, New Mexico Lobos: +1.5	UNLV Rebels -1.5	★★★☆☆ 58%
Over/under	over: -110, under: -110, line: 12.5	Over 12.5 runs	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	UNLV Rebels -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: UNLV Rebels at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

New Mexico Lobos are favored to win this matchup based on recent head-to-head dominance, superior offensive statistics led by Jordy Oriach, and current positive momentum. However, UNLV’s home advantage and strong pitching performances keep the contest competitive.

Predicted Score: UNLV Rebels 7 – New Mexico Lobos 6

Match Analysis: Fresno St Bulldogs vs Air Force Falcons – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-04-18
• Time: 1:00 AM UTC
• Location: Pete Beiden Field at Bob Bennett Stadium, Fresno, CA

Game Overview

The Fresno State Bulldogs (17-19, 10-5 MW) will host the Air Force Falcons (15-22, 7-8 MW) in a Mountain West baseball series starting April 17, 2025, at Pete Beiden Field. Fresno State leads the historical series 40-27 and has shown stronger performance in conference play. Recent encounters include Fresno State eliminating Air Force in the 2024 Mountain West tournament with a 10-3 win. The Bulldogs have a potent offense with several players boasting high OPS figures, while Air Force exhibits speed and strong on-base skills. Fresno State’s pitching features standout Jack Anker, the Mountain West strikeout leader. The Falcons' pitching has struggled with high ERAs, including the probable starter Dylan Rogers with a 9.32 ERA.

Key Factors to Consider

• Fresno State holds a better conference record (10-5 vs. Air Force's 7-8) and boasts a powerful lineup led by high OPS hitters like Walker Zapp (1.049 OPS) and Tripp Garrish (0.982 OPS). They also have the dominant pitcher Jack Anker, who recently threw a 16-strikeout game and leads the conference in strikeouts. Air Force’s offense excels in speed and small ball, leading the league in stolen bases and ranking well in on-base percentage, but their pitching staff struggles with high ERAs, notably Dylan Rogers with 9.32.
• Fresno State leads the all-time series 40-27 and won the majority of recent meetings, including a key 10-3 victory in last year's Mountain West tournament that eliminated Air Force. Fresno State also won the first series of the 2025 season 2-1 but was swept in an away series. Overall, Fresno State has outscored Air Force historically (459-381).
• No significant injury reports available for either team prior to the series.
• The game is played at Fresno State’s home stadium, giving them home field advantage on a grass surface. The Falcons have traveled west for the series, which may affect their performance. Weather and other environmental factors are assumed neutral with no adverse conditions reported.
• Fresno State is motivated to maintain home dominance and improve their conference standing following recent losses to Cal Poly. Air Force aims to improve their losing record and replicate their previous upset performances against Fresno State, including last season’s Mountain West tournament series.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Air Force Falcons: 255, Fresno St Bulldogs: -360	Fresno St Bulldogs to win	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Air Force Falcons: 2.5 -125, Fresno St Bulldogs: -2.5 -104	Fresno St Bulldogs -2.5	★★★★☆ 72%
Over/under	Over: 10.5 -121, Under: 10.5 -107	Under 10.5 runs	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Fresno St Bulldogs -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 10.5 16%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 10.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Fresno State is favored to win due to superior pitching, stronger offensive metrics, home field advantage, and historical dominance in the rivalry. Air Force’s speed and small ball tactics are notable but may not overcome Fresno State’s balanced strengths, particularly against weaker Falcons pitching.

Predicted Score: Fresno St Bulldogs 6 – Air Force Falcons 3

Match Analysis: California Golden Bears vs NC State Wolfpack – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-04-18
• Time: 1:00 AM UTC
• Location: Stu Gordon Stadium, Berkeley, California

Game Overview

The California Golden Bears will host the NC State Wolfpack in a highly anticipated NCAA baseball matchup at Stu Gordon Stadium. This game is the continuation of a three-game series from April 17 to 19, 2025. The Golden Bears, playing at home, seek to leverage their local advantage against the Wolfpack, who are traveling from North Carolina.

Key Factors to Consider

• California Golden Bears have shown solid form at home and are motivated to defend their turf. NC State Wolfpack are coming off a tough stretch with recent losses impacting their morale. The Golden Bears have a slightly better winning record and recent performances indicate more offensive consistency compared to NC State.
• Current season head-to-head baseball statistics between these two teams are limited, but recent basketball matchups suggest California has had a competitive edge. The baseball series scheduled at Berkeley has key implications for team momentum and confidence.
• No specific injury updates are available for either team leading into this match, suggesting both teams likely have full rosters available.
• The game is played in Berkeley under familiar conditions for the Golden Bears. Weather and stadium factors are expected to favor the home team, reducing travel fatigue and increasing comfort level for California.
• California Golden Bears are motivated to maintain home dominance and improve their standing in the NCAA. NC State Wolfpack, struggling with recent performance, are driven to break their losing streak and gain significant wins on the road.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	California Golden Bears: +100, NC State Wolfpack: -130	NC State Wolfpack	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	California Golden Bears: +1.5, NC State Wolfpack: -1.5	NC State Wolfpack -1.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	over: -110, under: -110	Under	★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	NC State Wolfpack 1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: NC State Wolfpack at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

The California Golden Bears are favored to win this match due to home advantage, better recent form, and stronger offensive capabilities, with NC State expected to put up a resilient fight.

Predicted Score: California Golden Bears 4 – 6 NC State Wolfpack

Match Analysis: San José St Spartans vs San Diego St Aztecs – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-04-18
• Time: 1:00 AM UTC
• Location: Excite Ballpark, San Jose, California

Game Overview

San José State Spartans will host San Diego State Aztecs in a highly competitive Mountain West NCAA baseball matchup. The Spartans hold a strong home record (14-5) and have shown resilience with recent wins, including a decisive 10-2 victory over the Aztecs in their last series meeting. Meanwhile, the Aztecs have a historically dominant series record against the Spartans (88-46 overall) and have displayed solid pitching and strikeout capability this season, though their overall record (6-14) is weaker. The game is expected to be closely contested given the teams' contrasting recent performances and series history.

Key Factors to Consider

• San José State is performing well at home with a 14-5 record and recently defeated SDSU 10-2 by capitalizing on strong hitting, including four triples, and effective pitching from Win Scott and Tyler Albanese. San Diego State has strong pitching stats in the Mountain West, leading in innings pitched and strikeouts, but their offense has struggled to produce consistency, reflected in their 6-14 record and high ERA (7.43).
• San Diego State leads the all-time series 88-46, including 49-18 at home and 34-28 on the road. SDSU has won 83 of the last 130 games when hitting home runs, but in the most recent series in March, San José State won the finale 10-2 after SDSU swept a doubleheader. SDSU is 36-20 versus SJSU since joining Mountain West in 2013-14, but SJSU won the last head-to-head game decisively.
• No significant injuries reported for either team ahead of this matchup.
• The game is at Excite Ballpark, home advantage favors San José State. The Aztecs have travel fatigue concerns as they head north for this series. Weather and other external conditions are presumed normal for mid-April in San Jose.
• San José State aims to continue their strong home form and capitalize on recent success against SDSU. The Aztecs are motivated to reclaim dominance in the series and improve their poor overall record. SDSU's pitching staff’s Mountain West leadership in innings and strikeouts signals strong motivation to contain the Spartans’ offense.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	San Diego St Aztecs: 200, San José St Spartans: -270	San José St Spartans	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	San José St Spartans: -1.5 @ -110, San Diego St Aztecs: +1.5 @ -110	San José St Spartans to cover -1.5	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 8.5: -110, Under 8.5: -110	Over 8.5 runs	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	San José St Spartans 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: San José St Spartans at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

San José State is favored to win due to home advantage, recent dominant win over SDSU, and strong team performance. The Aztecs pose a threat with their pitching prowess but have struggled to consistently score runs.

Predicted Score: San José St Spartans 7 – San Diego St Aztecs 4

Match Analysis: Cruzeiro vs Bahia – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: April 18, 2025
• Time: 12:30 AM UTC
• Location: Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto

Game Overview

Cruzeiro hosts Bahia in a Brasileiro Serie A fixture. Cruzeiro recently suffered a loss to Internacional, while Bahia drew with Santos. Both teams have had mixed performances this season.

Key Factors to Consider

• Cruzeiro lost their last game 3-0 to Internacional, but they have been strong at home. Bahia drew 2-2 with Santos and are seeking consistency.
• Recent head-to-heads show Bahia has had success with a 4-1 win in the past, but matches have often been close, including a 1-1 draw.
• Cruzeiro has players like João Marcelo and Japa sidelined. Bahia is missing Gabriel Xavier and M. Araújo.
• Home advantage could be significant for Cruzeiro, while Bahia's travel might impact performance.
• Both teams are motivated to gain points in the Serie A standings, with Cruzeiro looking to recover from a recent loss.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Cruzeiro: 125, Bahia: 245, Draw: 220	Cruzeiro win	★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread	-0.25 Cruzeiro -110, 25 Bahia -110	Cruzeiro covers spread	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over_under	Over 2.25: -102, Under 2.25: -118	Under 2.25 goals	★★★☆☆ 58%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Cruzeiro -11%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.25 2%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 2.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Cruzeiro is slightly favored due to home advantage and past performances against Bahia.

Predicted Score: 1-0 in favor of Cruzeiro

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Match Analysis: Texas Longhorns vs Auburn Tigers – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: April 18, 2025
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Not specified

Game Overview

The Texas Longhorns, generally considered strong competitors in the NCAA, face off against the Auburn Tigers in this baseball match.

Key Factors to Consider

• Texas has historically performed well in NCAA baseball, but recent team dynamics and player injuries could influence the outcome.
• There is not enough data available on recent head-to-head baseball matches between Texas Longhorns and Auburn Tigers.
• No specific injury reports for this match are available.
• Weather conditions and crowd support could affect the game but are not specified.
• Both teams are likely motivated to win, with high stakes in NCAA competition.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Auburn Tigers: 154, Texas Longhorns: -200	Texas Longhorns	Not available

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Texas Longhorns 5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Texas Longhorns at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Texas Longhorns are favored to win based on general team strength.

Predicted Score: Texas Longhorns 6, Auburn Tigers 3

Match Analysis: Missouri Tigers vs Oklahoma Sooners – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-04-18
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Missouri Tigers Home Field, Columbia, MO

Game Overview

The Missouri Tigers will host the Oklahoma Sooners in an NCAA baseball matchup. Missouri is considered the underdog with +280 moneyline odds compared to Oklahoma's heavy favorite status at -395. Both teams have a storied football rivalry history, but current baseball-specific data suggests Oklahoma holds a stronger program overall. This game will test Missouri’s ability to compete on home turf against a dominant Oklahoma team.

Key Factors to Consider

• Oklahoma Sooners have demonstrated consistent strong performances in their recent NCAA competitions, showing dominant form compared to Missouri Tigers, who have more variable results. Oklahoma's recent baseball form is more stable, while Missouri is fighting to overcome inconsistencies at home.
• Historically, Oklahoma leads the overall football series against Missouri with a winning percentage above 70%, though this is football data and may only partially reflect baseball rivalry intensity. Recent matchups in other sports show Oklahoma tends to have an edge, and the current odds strongly favor Oklahoma.
• No current injury updates are available for this baseball match, suggesting both teams are likely to field near full-strength rosters.
• The game being played at Missouri’s home venue may provide some advantage, but Oklahoma's superior odds and historical dominance suggest this factor may not be decisive.
• Missouri will be motivated to leverage home advantage and upset a favored Oklahoma team, while Oklahoma likely aims to assert dominance and maintain their strong competitive form.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Missouri Tigers: +280, Oklahoma Sooners: -395	Oklahoma Sooners	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Oklahoma Sooners -1.5	Oklahoma Sooners to cover the spread	★★★★☆ 80%
Over/under	Over 7.5 runs	Under 7.5 runs	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Oklahoma Sooners -11%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Oklahoma Sooners at -11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Oklahoma Sooners are predicted to win the match, given their dominant odds, stronger recent form, and historical superiority in head-to-head matchups. Missouri Tigers may put up a strong fight at home but are less likely to overcome Oklahoma.

Predicted Score: Oklahoma Sooners 5 – Missouri Tigers 3