Match Analysis: David Benavidez vs Anthony Yarde – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-22
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: ANB Arena, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Game Overview
David Benavidez and Anthony Yarde will face off in a 12-round Light Heavyweight world title bout at ANB Arena in Riyadh on November 22, 2025. Benavidez, undefeated with a 30-0 record including 24 KOs, defends his WBC light-heavyweight title against Yarde, who has a 27-3 record with 24 KOs, aiming to capture a world crown after rebounding from recent losses. The fight promises power, skill, and endurance, with both fighters known for high knockout rates and competitive recent form.
Key Factors to Consider
- Benavidez remains undefeated, having won 2 of his last 5 opponents by stoppage and defeating David Morrell by unanimous decision in a recent title defense. Yarde has won 4 of his last 5 fights with 2 stoppages, including a trilogy victory over Lyndon Arthur, showing strong recovery from his 2023 loss to Beterbiev.
- The fighters have not previously faced each other in the professional ring. Their styles and records show contrasting strengths: Benavidez's undefeated record and experience as a reigning WBC champion versus Yarde's high knockout percentage (89%) and proven power on top opponents.
- No reported injuries for either fighter ahead of the bout, with both entering fight week healthy and prepared according to available reports.
- The bout takes place in Riyadh during Ring IV: Night of the Champions, adding high-profile exposure and significant pressure. Both fighters show strong motivation to solidify their world-class credentials and advance their rankings amid international attention.
- Benavidez is motivated to cement his status as a dominant light heavyweight with a first title defense, while Yarde aims to claim a world title after recent setbacks and demonstrate his power and skills on a world stage.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | David Benavidez: -1600, Anthony Yarde: 800 | David Benavidez wins | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Over/under | Over 9.5 rounds: -115, Under 9.5 rounds: -115 | Under 9.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | David Benavidez -9% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 9.5 12% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 9.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
David Benavidez is favored to win by unanimous decision, leveraging his youth, reach advantage, and consistent work rate to avoid Yarde's power punches in the early rounds and pull clear in the latter stages of the fight.
Predicted Score: Benavidez wins by unanimous decision with rounds scored approximately 116-112, 117-111, 115-113