Match Analysis: Larry Gonzales vs Anthony Guarascio – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-08
• Time: 2:00 AM UTC
• Location: CFFC 148, United States

Game Overview

This heavyweight MMA matchup features Anthony Guarascio, the strong favorite with -440 odds, facing Larry Gonzales, the underdog at +340. Both fighters are ranked within the top 350 in their division and have displayed contrasting recent performance trends.

Key Factors to Consider

• Anthony Guarascio has shown stronger recent form and higher activity, maintaining a better win streak and fewer weaknesses on the ground compared to Larry Gonzales, who has been inconsistent and less active recently.
• No prior head-to-head encounters reported, making direct matchup history negligible and increasing the importance of form and style analysis.
• No current injury reports on either fighter impacting this bout, indicating both will compete at full capacity.
• Fight taking place at a neutral venue under Cage Fury FC promotion; no known external distractions or issues affecting either athlete.
• Guarascio is motivated to solidify his higher rank and advance in the heavyweight division, while Gonzales seeks to upset and improve his standing, offering a moderate motivation edge to Guarascio.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Anthony Guarascio: -440, Larry Gonzales: +340	Anthony Guarascio	★★★★☆ 79%
Spread	Anthony Guarascio -1.5 rounds: -160, Larry Gonzales +1.5 rounds: +130	Anthony Guarascio -1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 72%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: +110, Under 2.5 rounds: -130	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Anthony Guarascio -3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Anthony Guarascio at -3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Anthony Guarascio to win on the moneyline

Predicted Score: Anthony Guarascio wins by KO/TKO in round 2

Match Analysis: Anthony Guarascio vs Steven Asplund – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-10
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV

Game Overview

Heavyweight MMA bout between undefeated Anthony Guarascio (3-0) and highly experienced Steven Asplund (5-1) on Dana White's Contender Series, featuring a contrast in age, reach, and fighting styles.

Key Factors to Consider

• Guarascio is undefeated with a perfect 3-0 record, showing heavy striking power with 2 KO/TKO wins and a submission, while Asplund has more fights (5-1) with a majority of wins by KO/TKO (4), but one loss and less finishing diversity.
• This is their first recorded head-to-head matchup with no prior encounters.
• No reported significant injuries for either fighter; Asplund took the fight on short notice but appears healthy and motivated.
• Fight held at UFC Apex with no travel disadvantage; Asplund’s short-notice call might affect conditioning but boosts his motivation.
• Asplund expressed high motivation, calling this the opportunity he’s always wanted, which could boost performance; Guarascio seeks to maintain undefeated status and impress on Contender Series.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: -175, away: 150	Anthony Guarascio	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Guarascio -1.5: +150, Asplund +1.5: -180	Guarascio -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	over 1.5: +177, under 1.5: -205	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Anthony Guarascio 1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 -11%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Anthony Guarascio at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Anthony Guarascio to win by moneyline, with under 1.5 rounds expectable due to Guarascio’s finishing tendency.

Predicted Score: Anthony Guarascio wins by KO/TKO in round 1 or early round 2

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Lerryan Douglas vs. Cam Teague Prediction	Lerryan Douglas Win	-500	★★★★☆ 73% (73%)
Anthony Guarascio vs. Steven Asplund Prediction	Anthony Guarascio Win	-175	★★★★☆ 72% (72%)
Shanelle Dyer vs. Carol Foro Prediction	Shanelle Dyer Win	-150	★★★★☆ 72% (72%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +214

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $62.86