Match Analysis: Larry Gonzales vs Anthony Guarascio – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-07
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: 2300 Arena, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States
Game Overview
The main event of CFFC 148 features reigning heavyweight champion Anthony Guarascio defending his title against promotional newcomer Larry Gonzales. Guarascio, known as 'The Daywalker,' is a 6'2" heavyweight from Florida with a 3-1 record, including two KO wins and one submission. Gonzales, a hard-hitting veteran with a 7-4 record, steps in on short notice for his biggest opportunity to date. The fight streams live on UFC FIGHT PASS and is expected to be a high-stakes contest with implications for both fighters' UFC aspirations.
Key Factors to Consider
- Anthony Guarascio has shown a strong finish rate, with 66.7% of his wins coming by KO and 33.3% by submission. His only loss was a KO at Dana White's Contender Series, but he has rebounded with a refocused training approach. Larry Gonzales is known for his striking power and aggressive style, but his record shows a higher number of losses and less finishing ability compared to Guarascio.
- This is the first meeting between Anthony Guarascio and Larry Gonzales. There is no prior history or direct matchup data.
- No public reports of injuries for either fighter leading up to this bout.
- Gonzales is stepping in on short notice, which can impact preparation and strategy. The fight takes place at the historic 2300 Arena, a venue familiar to CFFC fans but not necessarily to Gonzales. The event is highly publicized and streams on UFC FIGHT PASS, increasing the stakes for both fighters.
- Guarascio is highly motivated to rebound from his recent loss and prove he is ready for the UFC. Gonzales sees this as his biggest opportunity to date and is likely to be highly motivated to make a statement.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Anthony Guarascio: -300, Larry Gonzales: 200 | Anthony Guarascio | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: -120, Under 2.5 rounds: 100 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Anthony Guarascio -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Anthony Guarascio at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Anthony Guarascio is favored to win this bout due to his superior finishing ability, recent form, and experience at this level. While Gonzales is a dangerous opponent with knockout power, Guarascio's well-rounded skill set and motivation to rebound from his last loss give him the edge. The most likely outcome is a win for Guarascio, possibly by KO or submission.
Predicted Score: Anthony Guarascio wins by KO in the second round