Match Analysis: Andreas Gustafsson Berg vs Rinat Fakhretdinov – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-06
• Time: 4:45 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Fight Night (venue not explicitly stated)

Game Overview

The MMA match features Andreas Gustafsson Berg (12-2) facing Rinat Fakhretdinov (23-1-1) at welterweight. Gustafsson, nicknamed 'Bane,' is a technically precise striker with high striking accuracy (76%) and exceptional takedown defense (100%). Fakhretdinov, known as 'Gladiator,' has a deeper fight record and well-rounded skills but lower striking accuracy (52%) and takedown accuracy (34%). Both fighters use an orthodox stance and weigh 170 lbs.

Key Factors to Consider

• Gustafsson's last fights show strong decision wins with disciplined striking and grappling control. Fakhretdinov has a higher fight volume and knockout power but a slightly more defensive striking style. Gustafsson lands more strikes per minute (5.83 vs. 4.78) and absorbs fewer strikes (2.79 vs 3.58) indicating superior striking efficiency and defense.
• September 6, 2025, fight is their first official meeting, no past direct matchups found.
• No reported injuries available for either fighter leading into the bout.
• Fight held at UFC; Gustafsson fights out of Sweden with home support possibly favoring him slightly. Both trainers are highly reputed with Gustafsson coached by Jorgen Hamberg. No unusual external conditions reported.
• Gustafsson could capitalize on strong recent form and defense to extend his record, while Fakhretdinov, with a stellar record, is motivated to affirm dominance and continue his near-flawless career.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Andreas Gustafsson Berg: -120, Rinat Fakhretdinov: 100	Andreas Gustafsson Berg	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Andreas Gustafsson Berg: -3.5 150, Rinat Fakhretdinov: +3.5 -205	Rinat Fakhretdinov +3.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -195, Under 2.5 rounds: 150	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Andreas Gustafsson Berg -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 -2%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Andreas Gustafsson Berg at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Gustafsson is favored to win by decision due to superior striking accuracy, high takedown defense, and a disciplined, control-oriented style. Fakhretdinov may push aggressively but must overcome Gustafsson's defensive metrics and fight IQ.

Predicted Score: Decision victory for Andreas Gustafsson Berg (3 rounds)

Match Analysis: Khaos Williams vs Andreas Gustafsson Berg – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: June 7, 2025
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey, United States

Game Overview

Khaos Williams and Andreas Gustafsson face off in a welterweight bout at UFC 316. Williams, known for his explosive power, is favored over Gustafsson, who is making his UFC debut after a successful stint on Dana White's Contender Series.

Key Factors to Consider

• Khaos Williams enters with a 15-4 record, showcasing significant knockout power. Andreas Gustafsson has a record of 11-2, with a strong recent performance that earned him a UFC contract.
• This is their first meeting.
• There are no reported significant injuries affecting this bout.
• Gustafsson steps in on short notice, which could impact his performance due to limited preparation time.
• Both fighters are motivated to win, with Williams seeking to rebound from a recent loss and Gustafsson aiming to make a successful UFC debut.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Khaos Williams: -185, Andreas Gustafsson Berg: +160	Khaos Williams	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 1.5: -165, Under 1.5: +128	Over 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Khaos Williams -6%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 4%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Khaos Williams is predicted to win due to his experience and power, but Gustafsson's skills and recent form make him a formidable opponent.

Predicted Score: N/A

Match Analysis: Trevin Giles vs Andreas Gustafsson Berg – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-31
• Time: 11:40 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

Game Overview

Trevin Giles faces Andreas Gustafsson Berg at UFC Vegas 107. Giles holds a record of 16-7-0, while Gustafsson has a record of 11-2-0. The fight is scheduled as a catchweight bout at 180 lbs. Given the odds and fighter stats, Gustafsson is slightly favored.

Key Factors to Consider

• Gustafsson lands more significant strikes per minute (4.56) compared to Giles (3.17), with a higher accuracy rate (77% vs 54%).
• There is no previous head-to-head matchup between the two fighters.
• No recent injury reports are available for either fighter.
• The fight environment at UFC Apex could play a role in fighter performance, but both fighters are experienced and should adapt well.
• Both fighters will be highly motivated to win, but Gustafsson's recent performance might give him an edge in confidence.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-166 (Gustafsson), 140 (Giles)	Gustafsson	★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread	-3.5 -115 (Gustafsson), 3.5 -115 (Giles)	Giles +3.5	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under	Over 2.5 100, Under 2.5 -130	Over 2.5	★★★☆☆ 58%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Andreas Gustafsson Berg -4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 16%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Andreas Gustafsson Berg is favored to win, based on his strike rate and accuracy. The over/under is less predictable, but given the fighters' aggressive styles, it leans towards going over 2.5 rounds.

Predicted Score: Decision or late stoppage in favor of Gustafsson