Match Analysis: Christian Rodriguez vs Andre Fili – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-09
• Time: 11:00 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Game Overview

Christian Rodriguez vs Andre Fili is a featherweight UFC bout featuring a younger, highly accurate striker in Rodriguez against a taller, experienced fighter Fili with a contrasting style and more reach.

Key Factors to Consider

• Rodriguez (12-3) has a higher significant strike accuracy (50%) and defense (54%) compared to Fili's 37% accuracy and 51% defense. Fili lands more strikes per minute (3.84 vs 3.63) but absorbs significantly more (4.15 vs 2.66), indicating Rodriguez is more efficient and durable.
• No documented previous direct matchup exists between Rodriguez and Fili, making this a stylistic clash rather than familiarity-based contest.
• No known injuries reported for either fighter going into the fight, suggesting both are physically prepared.
• The fight is at UFC Apex amid a neutral environment favoring no athlete by location—Rodriguez being younger and possibly hungrier, Fili older but experienced.
• Rodriguez, at 27, is on the rise with a strong recent form and motivation to climb ranks, while Fili, at 35, may face declining physical attributes despite experience.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Christian Rodriguez: -245, Andre Fili: +200	Christian Rodriguez	★★★★☆ 74%
Spread	Christian Rodriguez -3.5: 105, Andre Fili +3.5: -140	Christian Rodriguez -3.5	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -230, Under 2.5 rounds: 175	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 63%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Christian Rodriguez -3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 73%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 73% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 41.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Christian Rodriguez to win on the moneyline by decision

Predicted Score: Christian Rodriguez wins by decision, fight lasting 3 rounds

Top EV Parlay for MMA/Boxing – August 9, 2025

Game	Pick	Odds	EV
Christian Rodriguez vs. Andre Fili Prediction	Under 2.5	175	73%
Iasmin Lucindo vs. Angela Hill Prediction	Over 2.5	-720	65%
Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Eryk Anders Prediction	Under 2.5	145	59%

Combined Odds: +667 |
Wager: $20 —
Potential Payout: $153.47

Match Analysis: Andre Fili vs Melquizael Costa – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-02-22
• Time: 11:00 PM UTC
• Location: Seattle

Game Overview

Andre Fili and Melquizael Costa are set to face off in a highly anticipated featherweight bout. Both fighters have shown versatility and the ability to engage in entertaining fights. Fili has been a staple in the UFC, known for his inconsistency but ability to put on a show, while Costa is looking to build momentum after a recent win.

Key Factors to Consider

• Andre Fili has a long history in the UFC with a record of 24-11, known for his ability to hang tough with most featherweights. Melquizael Costa, with a record of 21-7, has been inconsistent in the UFC but has shown flashes of brilliance, particularly in his last fight where he staged a late rally to win.
• There is no prior head-to-head matchup between Andre Fili and Melquizael Costa. However, Costa's training partner, Joanderson Brito, previously defeated Fili, which could provide valuable insight for Costa.
• No significant injuries have been reported for either fighter ahead of this bout.
• The fight takes place in Seattle, which might not significantly favor either fighter since both are accustomed to different environments. Costa is training in Massachusetts, which could impact his acclimation to the fight conditions.
• Costa is highly motivated, having recently renewed his UFC contract and looking to make a statement. Fili, as a veteran, is always motivated to perform well and entertain the crowd.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Andre Fili: -107, Melquizael Costa: -117	Andre Fili	★★★☆☆ 55%
Spread	Andre Fili: 3.5 -210, Melquizael Costa: -3.5 150	Melquizael Costa	★★☆☆☆ 40%
Over_under	Over: 2.5 -210, Under: 2.5 170	Over	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Andre Fili via decision

Predicted Score: Andre Fili wins by decision