Match Analysis: Christian Rodriguez vs Andre Fili – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-09
• Time: 11:00 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV

Game Overview

Christian Rodriguez faces Andre Fili at UFC Vegas 109 in a featherweight bout. Rodriguez is the younger fighter with a strong finish rate and high striking accuracy, while Fili brings extensive experience with a solid strike volume and resilience. Both fighters use orthodox stance, with Fili having a reach advantage. The fight is anticipated to be competitive with contrasting styles—Rodriguez’s precision and defense versus Fili’s experience and durability.

Key Factors to Consider

• Rodriguez enters with a 12-3 record, showing 50% striking accuracy and absorbing fewer significant strikes per minute (2.66) compared to Fili, who holds a 24-12 record with 37% accuracy and absorbs 4.15 significant strikes per minute. Fili lands more strikes per minute (3.84) but is less efficient defensively.
• No previous head-to-head matchups recorded between Christian Rodriguez and Andre Fili, making this their first direct confrontation.
• No publicly reported injuries for either fighter leading into the match, indicating both should be at full fitness.
• Fight takes place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas with neutral venue conditions. No significant external disruptions or conditions reported that would favor one fighter.
• Rodriguez, at 27, is rising and motivated to establish himself as a top contender. Fili, a veteran at 35, aims to leverage his experience to prove continued competitiveness in the division.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Andre Fili: +200, Christian Rodriguez: -245	Christian Rodriguez	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Andre Fili: -3.5 at -140, Christian Rodriguez: +3.5 at 105	Christian Rodriguez -3.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5: -230, Under 2.5: 175	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Christian Rodriguez 1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 73%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 73% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 41.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Christian Rodriguez is favored due to superior defense, accuracy, and youth advantage. His ability to land high-percentage strikes and absorb fewer damaging shots gives him the edge over the more experienced but less efficient Andre Fili.

Predicted Score: Christian Rodriguez wins by decision or late stoppage (3 rounds)

Top EV Parlay for MMA/Boxing – August 9, 2025

Game	Pick	Odds	EV
Christian Rodriguez vs. Andre Fili Prediction	Under 2.5	175	73%
Joselyne Edwards vs. Priscila Cachoeira Prediction	Under 2.5	150	50%
Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Eryk Anders Prediction	Under 2.5	145	40%

Combined Odds: +1584 |
Wager: $20 —
Potential Payout: $336.88

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Anthony Hernandez vs. Roman Dolidze Prediction	Anthony Hernandez Win	-345	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
Christian Rodriguez vs. Andre Fili Prediction	Christian Rodriguez Win	-245	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Eryk Anders Prediction	Christian Leroy Duncan Win	-550	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +115

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $42.93

Match Analysis: Andre Fili vs Melquizael Costa – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-02-22
• Time: 11:00 PM UTC
• Location: Seattle

Game Overview

Andre Fili and Melquizael Costa are set to face off in a highly anticipated featherweight bout. Both fighters have shown versatility and the ability to engage in entertaining fights. Fili has been a staple in the UFC, known for his inconsistency but ability to put on a show, while Costa is looking to build momentum after a recent win.

Key Factors to Consider

• Andre Fili has a long history in the UFC with a record of 24-11, known for his ability to hang tough with most featherweights. Melquizael Costa, with a record of 21-7, has been inconsistent in the UFC but has shown flashes of brilliance, particularly in his last fight where he staged a late rally to win.
• There is no prior head-to-head matchup between Andre Fili and Melquizael Costa. However, Costa's training partner, Joanderson Brito, previously defeated Fili, which could provide valuable insight for Costa.
• No significant injuries have been reported for either fighter ahead of this bout.
• The fight takes place in Seattle, which might not significantly favor either fighter since both are accustomed to different environments. Costa is training in Massachusetts, which could impact his acclimation to the fight conditions.
• Costa is highly motivated, having recently renewed his UFC contract and looking to make a statement. Fili, as a veteran, is always motivated to perform well and entertain the crowd.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Andre Fili: -107, Melquizael Costa: -117	Andre Fili	★★★☆☆ 55%
Spread	Andre Fili: 3.5 -210, Melquizael Costa: -3.5 150	Melquizael Costa	★★☆☆☆ 40%
Over_under	Over: 2.5 -210, Under: 2.5 170	Over	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Andre Fili via decision

Predicted Score: Andre Fili wins by decision