Match Analysis: Tatiana Suarez vs Amanda Lemos – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-13
- Time: 9:45 PM UTC
- Location: San Antonio, Texas, USA
Game Overview
The matchup between Tatiana Suarez and Amanda Lemos is a highly anticipated strawweight bout scheduled as part of the UFC prelims at Noche UFC 3 on September 13, 2025, in San Antonio, Texas. Suarez, ranked #2, is coming off her first career loss in a title fight and looks to rebound to reassert her status in the division, while Amanda Lemos, ranked #4, is seeking a win over a top contender to secure another title shot. The fight features contrasting styles with Suarez's strong wrestling and takedown defense against Lemos' aggressive standup and ground game.
Key Factors to Consider
- Tatiana Suarez holds a 10-1 professional MMA record, showing dominance especially with her grappling and takedown accuracy, improved striking defense, and cardio. Amanda Lemos has a solid record and is known for powerful striking combined with competent ground skills, typically pressing forward aggressively. Both have high-level experience but Suarez's wrestling base and strategic evolution post her recent loss position her as the favorite.
- No prior head-to-head matchups have occurred between Tatiana Suarez and Amanda Lemos, making this their first direct encounter.
- No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout, suggesting both are at full strength.
- Changes in venue from Guadalajara to San Antonio could have slight logistical impacts but are unlikely to affect fighter preparation significantly. Both fighters are motivated and focused on reclaiming or advancing their championship contention status.
- Suarez is highly motivated to bounce back after her first career loss in a failed title bid. Lemos aims to prove she belongs in the title conversation by defeating a top-ranked opponent, making her equally driven.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Amanda Lemos: 350, Tatiana Suarez: -455 | Tatiana Suarez | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Amanda Lemos +7.5: 100, Tatiana Suarez -7.5: -140 | Tatiana Suarez -7.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: 100, Under 2.5 rounds: -130 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tatiana Suarez -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 15% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 19.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Tatiana Suarez is predicted to win due to her superior wrestling, takedown defense, and ability to control the pace, with a strategic advantage against Lemos' aggressive striking style.
Predicted Score: Tatiana Suarez wins by decision or finish in round 2 or 3