Match Analysis: AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-18
- Time: 12:30 PM UTC
- Location: AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar, Netherlands
Game Overview
AZ Alkmaar will host Almere City in an Eredivisie fixture. AZ Alkmaar ranks 5th with 56 points and has shown strong home form recently, unbeaten in 5 of their last 6 home league matches. Almere City is struggling near the bottom of the table in 18th place with 21 points and a poor recent run. Historically, AZ Alkmaar dominates this matchup, winning 67% of their matches against Almere City. The match is expected to showcase AZ Alkmaar's attacking strength and Almere City's fight to avoid relegation.
Key Factors to Consider
- AZ Alkmaar has won 50% of their last 6 matches and is on a 3-game winning streak. Almere City has lost 21 of their last 34 matches, showing significant struggles.
- In previous Eredivisie meetings, AZ Alkmaar has dominated with a 67% win rate over Almere City. They played twice last season with AZ Alkmaar winning both fixtures.
- No significant injuries reported for either team ahead of the match, indicating both squads should be near full strength.
- The match is played at AZ Alkmaar's home stadium, the AFAS Stadion, where they have a strong unbeaten home run recently.
- AZ Alkmaar is motivated to secure a higher finish in the Eredivisie standings and maintain their positive momentum, while Almere City is fighting to avoid relegation and desperately needs points.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | AZ Alkmaar: -323, Almere City: 620, Draw: 450 | AZ Alkmaar win | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Spread | AZ Alkmaar -1.5: -113, Almere City +1.5: -107 | AZ Alkmaar -1.5 | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Over/under | Over 3.25: -114, Under 3.25: -106 | Over 3.25 goals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | AZ Alkmaar -8% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 3.25 3% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 3.25 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
AZ Alkmaar is strongly favored to win, leveraging home advantage, superior form, and head-to-head dominance. The prediction is a confident win for AZ Alkmaar with a clean sheet.
Predicted Score: 3-0